Dura-Ace R9200

[Sock3t]

Word now is shimano has 700 day lead times on common 11 speed parts....

[ultimobici]

Just to put the availability issues into perspective, the main Shimano distributor where I am has a 10 brake pad a month order limit. They are rationing parts.


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[LainOTN]

Anyone else notice shimano running paid partnership with GCN (with apparently more videos to come)?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vNKrkrPsAGM

Seems like the start of a marketing push to lead up to launch of the new dura-ace.

Avoid GCN like the plague, but that's a pretty clear indicator that launch is imminent.

Agree, GCN turned into a total joke. Just one big advertisement.

+1 The old show was like TopGear with bikes, now is mainly ads.

[RDY]

Just to put the availability issues into perspective, the main Shimano distributor where I am has a 10 brake pad a month order limit. They are rationing parts.


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If I were SRAM, I'd be moving heaven and earth to try to add more production capacity as quickly as possible.

Anyone who thinks Shimano road issues will go away when hopefully the pandemic recedes a little bit in another year or two is kidding themselves. The total lack of interest in providing semi-adequate supply of spare parts, let alone gruppos, tells you all you need to know about how much they care. E-bikes. E-bikes. E-bikes.

Be really nice if Campag could get Wireless Record, and something like Ekar Wireless Record (light wireless version) out soonish so we have some choice, even if supply is thin. Really hope they forget SR for the time being. Fruits of FSA R&D can't come soon enough too.

[XCProMD]

FSA never secured a deal with a reliable mechatronics partner, that’s why their WE is almost nowhere to be found. They were too hesitant to take the big investment to enter the OEM groupset race.

Not sure this day and age is the best to secure supplies.


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[spartan]

electronic shifting. chinese are coming and they will redefine price/performance again. what have they done in the carbon wheelset market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC3dgiqR6zc&t=250s

[golfsierra]

Every time I check in on this thread I just see more discussion of things that are not the new DA group....

[RDY]

Every time I check in on this thread I just see more discussion of things that are not the new DA group....

Can you guess why that is?

[RDY]

electronic shifting. chinese are coming and they will redefine price/performance again. what have they done in the carbon wheelset market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC3dgiqR6zc&t=250s

Electronic shifting (a bit like electric vs ic cars) is so much easier for new entrants to come into and get right cheaply and quickly. Give it 2-3 years and I suspect we'll have something of equivalent quality to Ultegra / Force.

[tjvirden]

electronic shifting. chinese are coming and they will redefine price/performance again. what have they done in the carbon wheelset market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC3dgiqR6zc&t=250s

Electronic shifting (a bit like electric vs ic cars) is so much easier for new entrants to come into and get right cheaply and quickly. Give it 2-3 years and I suspect we'll have something of equivalent quality to Ultegra / Force.

I think you're both dreaming!
It's extremely hard for any new entrant to make a cable shift/brake groupset that's competitive in both price & performance. Electronic is much harder because you still have all the mechanical parts for the derailleurs, which aren't disappearing any time soon!
Shimano can get away with such a long wait for R9200 - losing a lot of top-end market share to SRAM in the process - because it's such a speciality product and new entrants can't get started, while they (Shimano) sell huge amounts of other stuff with big margins.

[RDY]

I think you're underestimating how easy making it digital and potentially wireless is. Cable pull is genuinely difficult. It's all analogue and requires massive amounts of trial and error, testing and experience.

[blaugrana]

electronic shifting. chinese are coming and they will redefine price/performance again. what have they done in the carbon wheelset market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC3dgiqR6zc&t=250s

Electronic shifting (a bit like electric vs ic cars) is so much easier for new entrants to come into and get right cheaply and quickly. Give it 2-3 years and I suspect we'll have something of equivalent quality to Ultegra / Force.

I think you're both dreaming!
It's extremely hard for any new entrant to make a cable shift/brake groupset that's competitive in both price & performance. Electronic is much harder because you still have all the mechanical parts for the derailleurs, which aren't disappearing any time soon!
Shimano can get away with such a long wait for R9200 - losing a lot of top-end market share to SRAM in the process - because it's such a speciality product and new entrants can't get started, while they (Shimano) sell huge amounts of other stuff with big margins.

But also there are plenty of ways to make a chain shift chainrings with motors. Right now all electronic derailleurs essentially mimic mechanical design and replace the cable with a motor, but electronics give you so much more control and precision that completely new and different designs should be viable. And also, none of the components or manufacturing processes are particularly expensive, so there is room to undercut Shimano and Sram in price (not to mention Campagnolo, who only offer the Super Record groupset in electronic version). Of course it's not something a random guy can do in his garage, but there are plenty of big companies in China who could pull it off.

[tjvirden]

I think you're underestimating how easy making it digital and potentially wireless is. Cable pull is genuinely difficult. It's all analogue and requires massive amounts of trial and error, testing and experience.

I can imagine that the fundamentals of the electronics, including wireless functionality, are fairly straightforward now (not withstanding the problems of actually getting production capacity) but what makes the parts so awkward is combining the electronics with the mechanical functionality - as mentioned before with FSA; the suggestion being that they couldn't find a suitable partner for mechatronics. We don't know why - Price? Lead-time? Functionality? The electronics don't replace mechanical parts in derailleurs, only in shifters.

SRAM have done a great job matching Di2, but it took them a lot of time and a lot of expertise - presumably much of it from third-parties. Bicycles use all sorts of parts that are not used much elsewhere - it's speciality manufacturing and that is a primary reason for the high prices of top-end stuff. Yes, demand is hugely outstripping supply at the moment, but the supply part is very difficult to change unless you plan extra capacity years ahead......but what will the demand side be then? Not just quantities, but what will the product be then?

Microshift was a new entrant to integrated cable shift/brake levers. Their market share is tiny still; don't hold your breath waiting for it to increase!

But also there are plenty of ways to make a chain shift chainrings with motors. Right now all electronic derailleurs essentially mimic mechanical design and replace the cable with a motor, but electronics give you so much more control and precision that completely new and different designs should be viable. And also, none of the components or manufacturing processes are particularly expensive, so there is room to undercut Shimano and Sram in price (not to mention Campagnolo, who only offer the Super Record groupset in electronic version). Of course it's not something a random guy can do in his garage, but there are plenty of big companies in China who could pull it off.

Care to put forward some new and different designs? You can be sure there are smart people working on it, but large advances are not common in bicycling, simply because they're hard to come by. As for cost of manufacturing (only a small part of final price), are you so sure that there is much room to undercut? Looking at unit price/cost doesn't tell you much on its own. I think it's rather more likely that the large pool of talent in China is busy working on things other than bicycles, and that will remain the case.

[XCProMD]

FSA did found a suitable partner, they just didn't took the financial commitment to order proprietary SKUs in large amounts.

Regarding "new and different" designs, the team that originally designed the FSA system (European, not Tiso), sold it to another taiwanese company until it finally landed on FSA's lap. They have a linear system prototyped, no linkages. You don't use linkages in a CNC Mill or lathe after all...

[RDY]

How long has the new system been prototyped? Presumably the intention is for it to entirely replace their current offering.

I was told to expect 'something new' re: derailleurs from FSA that would be supplied to brands for complete bikes probably by calendar year 2022.