Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

[tymon_tm]

They don’t want a picture of the top three finishers on the podium always crossing the line on rim brakes if what they’re trying to sell to the public is disc brakes. That photo doesn’t make for a good website cover photo.

alpine skiing learned to deal with that issue years ago - each team (or sponsor?) has a 'dude' who quickly swaps skier's custom made stuff for the product one can find in a shop. it started more or less when the whole 'curving' thing was happening, as those skis were significantly shorter and 'bulged' (manufacturers wanted you to go as short as 30cm below your height with radiuses going down to as little as 10m), while even in slalom WC nobody really went lower than those few centimeters. I was a teen back then, lusting for them WC GS stuff, and it made me pretty confused each time a dude rode down, took off his skis, and stood with their tops well above his head... good they've learned how to fix it, and soon enough we would get e.g. a downhill podium presentation with short, 160-170cm skis being displayed

[tymon_tm]

I wonder how this happened without the influence or marketing?
Or what makes people change so drastically?

most customers won't know it or admit it, but the marketing influence today is significantly greater than, say, 10 years ago. why? number of reasons. first of all product cycles getting shorter, creating an instant demand for an upgrade. second - variety of choice, options, one can't really get around to comprehend. third - price; for 1st world markets getting a new phone or computer isn't much of a financial stretch, so the 'importance' of making a good decision is greatly reduced by affordability. arguably stuff once regarded as luxurious commodity (like a good phone) today fits more in a FMCG basket, as we often swap them on a yearly basis. of course bikes are a lot more pricey, but at this point we're so accustomed to marketing BS voice in our heads, we soak it like a sponge no matter what we buy. we are being succesfully programmed that way and it affects our decision making process even regarding the superior goods. so yeah, we're more and more like those hamsters spinning in a wheel thinking it's the world that spins around us..

[Kayrehn]

1. I'm quite surprised by the statistics Tobin quoted but I personally haven't seen that many people on discs locally. Its not even like 30% in my riding group or other groups that I know of. Maybe somehow we are all slow to change bikes but still that makes the statistics implausible?

2. I got a WW bike and I'll keep it as it is. But on my other bike I really don't mind changing to discs. I have no mountains to climb nor do I ride in the wet, but if the bike I like is only available in discs and I don't care about the weight, I'll probably just get it even if there's no need for it. And if others have this attitude, you'll see how discs will eventually become common once manufacturers pushes disc bikes. This is especially for new buyers who have little reason to insist on rim brakes since they are less likely to know all the differences.

3. I do agree that in places like Europe, new/top end bikes are extremely rare, and disc bikes should therefore be equally rare. Riders there seems to find little reason to change bikes unless they crash, and this stubborness might make them resistance to adopting discs.

4. I like this discussion and sharing of different opinions, really hope the discussion can stay civil and friendly.

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[Karvalo]

jlok's link is one I've referenced before.

For MY2018 (mostly calendar 2017,) SRAM's OEM road brake sales were 87% disc. For calendar year 2018, Shimano claimed disc sales would be the majority. If Shimano's disc sales follow the same trajectory as SRAM's, then in 2019 ~80% of their OEM road brakes sold will be disc.

That's an invalid assumption. Sram's numbers are so skewed because no-one specs SRAM on entry or mid range pure road bikes anymore. A huge proportion of SRAMs OE sales are going to be eTap or 1x road/gravel crossover systems. Both of those market segments (top end/allroad) are naturally far more skewed to disc brake bikes than the overall road market is.

A huge number of road bike sales happen in the 105/Ultegra section (where SRAM are dead and buried), where it can often cost 25% to 30% more to get disc brakes on a like for like frame and spec. The top end price difference (where there is a rim option) is more like <5%. If nothing else, I would expect that segment where you can get a good bike for a reasonable price to stop Shimano's numbers from skewing as much as SRAM's for quite some time.

[Karvalo]

3. I do agree that in places like Europe, new/top end bikes are extremely rare,

I just spat tea all over my keyboard

[Lewn777]

No, you are going to see all performance road bikes consolidate around disc. Real people, not the weight weenies minority, are not as ideologically invested in rim brakes. The industry definitely isn’t. Climbing bikes, endurance bikes, aero bikes, TT bikes, they’re all going to be exclusively disc in the next few years. This is for the sake of simplicity and practicality. The more cross compatible your components are between your cx/gravel bike, aero bike and climbing bike, the better.

I really can't see how this is correct. Disk brakes for simplicity? I think the opposite is likely.

The reason that the manufacturers want disk brakes so desperately is to design their new bikes with as many propreitary parts as possible. To make more money from you. They don't want people disappearing off to ebay to buy a CNC machined titanium or carbon fiber part for a reasonable price from Taiwan they want you paying them your $$$. A pandoras box of new axle sizes, disk sizes mountings no front dr awaits. Nothing will fit on anything else unless the UCI come in and demand standardization, which I think they don't even have the power to do.

You can't just change disk wheels between bikes without loosening bolts and pushing pistons pack into their bores anyway.

[Lewn777]

If the entire pro peloton did switch to disc tomorrow? What challenges would they have with wheel swaps and what would they do to overcome those challenges?

Namely thinking about disc alignment. Are they going to have to wait for the team car to do a full bike swap every time they puncture or is there a solution to this issue?

Also, not that I'm a proponent of disc, but pointing to the peloton and saying they aren't doing it as a reason against disc is probably a bit off the mark. I almost guarantee the primary reason rim is chosen over disc in nearly any given stage is due to the concern over a puncture. Period. End of story. (keep in mind, they have pro mechanics to deal with the headaches of disc, so most of those reasons against disc don't apply to them)

wheel swap is a real issue in pro with disc brake and neutral service. Within the same team the mechanic can align the rotor no problem.

Also, if Speedrelease is the future, then the current crop of aero db bikes maybe one gen behind, or they were designed two years ago and only stopped by marketing dept at the gate. Systemsix and the upcoming 795 Blade RS Disc have the Speedrelease.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is exactly what you pro disk people fail to understand every time.
Speedrelease is just one of these techs that will come along. Then there will be competeing tech, some compatable some not, so with adaptors others not. Not just axles but brake mountings. This is why I don't want disk yet, I bet there are loads of disk type technologies in the pipeline ready to make what you already have totally redundant and the pace will shock you.

Imagine buying a bike and being tied in to Mavic, Campag/Fulcrum or Shimano wheels, or anyone else that's bought into their patents. This could become a reality. I had a Rockshox 12mm (edit: no 15mm) front axle on my montain bike that broke in my hand and as it was over a year old I had togo off trawling the internet looking for a replacement at considerable cost, considering it was just a piece of steel and plastic.

[mattr]

3. I do agree that in places like Europe, new/top end bikes are extremely rare,

I just spat tea all over my keyboard

To be fair, it depends what you mean by "top end". A carbon equipped with DA with some nice wheels might make up a measurable percentage of new bikes sold, but your actual top of the line halo products, they don't even make enough of them to figure as more than a blip on the figures.
Speaking to one mate in the business 2 or 3 years ago, their top of the line road and MTB bikes (5 or 6 models i think, all well over the €10,000 mark) their global volume was around 1000-1200 bikes.

Get down to their lowest (HA!!!) DA/XTR equipped model at around €4-5000 they are selling double that or more in some models and sizes.
(Very successful company, one of the bigger hitters in the industry.)

Personally I'd still call a carbon race bike with DA and some decent wheels "top end", even if there is at least €5000 to go to the actual "top end" halo product of that brand/model range. Some people don't. A €5000 DA equipped carbon bike is run of the mill.

Also, worth bearing in mind that people don't actually buy new bikes every year. At a guess, the last club i was in, significantly less than 20% of the club members would get a new bike in any given year, and almost none of them would get anything describeable as top end (Mostly around the €2-3000 mark). Quite a few were still riding bikes of 10+ years old (and still winning on them). Mines ~23 years old (not that i've won anything on it since the turn of the century!)

[Karvalo]

Also, if Speedrelease is the future, then the current crop of aero db bikes maybe one gen behind, or they were designed two years ago and only stopped by marketing dept at the gate. Systemsix and the upcoming 795 Blade RS Disc have the Speedrelease.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is exactly what you pro disk people fail to understand every time.
Speedrelease is just one of these techs that will come along. Then there will be competeing tech, some compatable some not, so with adaptors others not. Not just axles but brake mountings. This is why I don't want disk yet, I bet there are loads of disk type technologies in the pipeline ready to make what you already have totally redundant and the pace will shock you.

I've only played around with Speedrelease, not used it in anger, but is it really that much easier? If anything it could be fiddlier to line up the axle notch with the dropout than it is taking the whole axle out. Plus, for wheel changes the crucial part is usually lining up the axle head to engage the dropout threads. In that case axles with conical shaped ends that self locate like on the 3T Exploro could be more helpful than the Speedrelease design.

(I had to laugh when a friend of mine got the new F-SI WorldCup and it has a flush, bolt-thru Speedrelease axle. Mixed messages? )

Imagine buying a bike and being tied in to Mavic, Campag/Fulcrum or Shimano wheels, or anyone else that's bought into their patents. This could become a reality.

That doesn't make any sense. Disc brakes have been mature tech on MTB's for years and years and years now and the vast majority of wheel hubs are totally brand agnostic when it comes to axle or frame compatibility. And why shouldn't they be? In the context of wheel fitting, a hub is just a hollow tube. No matter what you do to a frame and axle they just have to be the same width and diameter as that tube.

[Karvalo]

3. I do agree that in places like Europe, new/top end bikes are extremely rare,

I just spat tea all over my keyboard

To be fair, it depends what you mean by "top end". A carbon equipped with DA with some nice wheels might make up a measurable percentage of new bikes sold, but your actual top of the line halo products, they don't even make enough of them to figure as more than a blip on the figures.
Speaking to one mate in the business 2 or 3 years ago, their top of the line road and MTB bikes (5 or 6 models i think, all well over the €10,000 mark) their global volume was around 1000-1200 bikes.

Oh sure, I've sold bikes much rarer than that even. But those bikes are extremely rare everywhere (except Dubai, probably ). And because there are so few of them in the world as a whole, they're not the ones that are affecting the overall market saturation of disc bikes that Kayrehn is talking about.

[Lewn777]

Also, if Speedrelease is the future, then the current crop of aero db bikes maybe one gen behind, or they were designed two years ago and only stopped by marketing dept at the gate. Systemsix and the upcoming 795 Blade RS Disc have the Speedrelease.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is exactly what you pro disk people fail to understand every time.
Speedrelease is just one of these techs that will come along. Then there will be competeing tech, some compatable some not, so with adaptors others not. Not just axles but brake mountings. This is why I don't want disk yet, I bet there are loads of disk type technologies in the pipeline ready to make what you already have totally redundant and the pace will shock you.

I've only played around with Speedrelease, not used it in anger, but is it really that much easier? If anything it could be fiddlier to line up the axle notch with the dropout than it is taking the whole axle out. Plus, for wheel changes the crucial part is usually lining up the axle head to engage the dropout threads. In that case axles with conical shaped ends that self locate like on the 3T Exploro could be more helpful than the Speedrelease design.

(I had to laugh when a friend of mine got the new F-SI WorldCup and it has a flush, bolt-thru Speedrelease axle. Mixed messages? )

I'm not that worried by the actual use and functionality of disk specific axles. It doesn't take that long to tighten them, some of them are even better for clumbsy people like me.

It's just the road that disk brakes are taking us down a road that isn't to my taste. I just don't think the marginal gains are worth it, and they are being pushed not largely adopted. I'd be much more comfortable if the market was just allowed to choose for itself or if bikes only came with a front disk and rim rear and the frames are the same and you just choose a different fork and front wheel depending if you want disk or not. For example I'm keen to adopt the new SRAM 12 speed if everything will fit on my current bike, becuase I think 12 gears with a 10 tooth small cog is worth it, even if I have to buy a new rear hub. What I don't want is someone trying to force me into what frameset or brake system I have to use.

[LeDuke]

If the entire pro peloton did switch to disc tomorrow? What challenges would they have with wheel swaps and what would they do to overcome those challenges?

Namely thinking about disc alignment. Are they going to have to wait for the team car to do a full bike swap every time they puncture or is there a solution to this issue?

Also, not that I'm a proponent of disc, but pointing to the peloton and saying they aren't doing it as a reason against disc is probably a bit off the mark. I almost guarantee the primary reason rim is chosen over disc in nearly any given stage is due to the concern over a puncture. Period. End of story. (keep in mind, they have pro mechanics to deal with the headaches of disc, so most of those reasons against disc don't apply to them)

wheel swap is a real issue in pro with disc brake and neutral service. Within the same team the mechanic can align the rotor no problem.

Also, if Speedrelease is the future, then the current crop of aero db bikes maybe one gen behind, or they were designed two years ago and only stopped by marketing dept at the gate. Systemsix and the upcoming 795 Blade RS Disc have the Speedrelease.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is exactly what you pro disk people fail to understand every time.
Speedrelease is just one of these techs that will come along. Then there will be competeing tech, some compatable some not, so with adaptors others not. Not just axles but brake mountings. This is why I don't want disk yet, I bet there are loads of disk type technologies in the pipeline ready to make what you already have totally redundant and the pace will shock you.

Imagine buying a bike and being tied in to Mavic, Campag/Fulcrum or Shimano wheels, or anyone else that's bought into their patents. This could become a reality. I had a Rockshox 12mm front axle on my montain bike that broke in my hand and as it was over a year old I had togo off trawling the internet looking for a replacement at considerable cost, considering it was just a piece of steel and plastic.

No, you didn’t have a RS 12mm axle on your mountain bike.

Unless you had a rigid road fork on your MTB instead of an MTB fork with a 15mm or 20mm axle.


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[tymon_tm]

each market has it's specificity; for instance 'growing' markets (eastern europe, asia) see bigger increase in top end goods, mostly due to the fact that as you move up the 'wealth' ladder you do tend to spend more on your hobbies and stuff, whereas in more 'steady' or 'developed' (like western europe) countries, people for whome money isn't something new are less likely to pay premium. 10 years ago I had one good lbs in my town that would stock anything above 105/Ultegra. today there are a few. if I were to guess, I'd say 2k bikes are the average here (I'm talking new purchases), plus there are LOTS of high end 5k+ rides as well.

[Lewn777]

If the entire pro peloton did switch to disc tomorrow? What challenges would they have with wheel swaps and what would they do to overcome those challenges?

Namely thinking about disc alignment. Are they going to have to wait for the team car to do a full bike swap every time they puncture or is there a solution to this issue?

Also, not that I'm a proponent of disc, but pointing to the peloton and saying they aren't doing it as a reason against disc is probably a bit off the mark. I almost guarantee the primary reason rim is chosen over disc in nearly any given stage is due to the concern over a puncture. Period. End of story. (keep in mind, they have pro mechanics to deal with the headaches of disc, so most of those reasons against disc don't apply to them)

wheel swap is a real issue in pro with disc brake and neutral service. Within the same team the mechanic can align the rotor no problem.

Also, if Speedrelease is the future, then the current crop of aero db bikes maybe one gen behind, or they were designed two years ago and only stopped by marketing dept at the gate. Systemsix and the upcoming 795 Blade RS Disc have the Speedrelease.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is exactly what you pro disk people fail to understand every time.
Speedrelease is just one of these techs that will come along. Then there will be competeing tech, some compatable some not, so with adaptors others not. Not just axles but brake mountings. This is why I don't want disk yet, I bet there are loads of disk type technologies in the pipeline ready to make what you already have totally redundant and the pace will shock you.

Imagine buying a bike and being tied in to Mavic, Campag/Fulcrum or Shimano wheels, or anyone else that's bought into their patents. This could become a reality. I had a Rockshox 12mm front axle on my montain bike that broke in my hand and as it was over a year old I had togo off trawling the internet looking for a replacement at considerable cost, considering it was just a piece of steel and plastic.

No, you didn’t have a RS 12mm axle on your mountain bike.

Unless you had a rigid road fork on your MTB instead of an MTB fork with a 15mm or 20mm axle.


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D'oh, yeah 15mm. Rockshox Pike 150mm travel. 26 inch

[C36]

Where we live doesn't really matter according to the numbers the OEM industry is touting. So basically the topic of discussion becomes whether we think the numbers are real or lies. My thoughts are those 80-90% global sales numbers are real, and even if they are cooking the books by a few percentage points, it hardly matters at those extremes.

WRT your friend's LBSes... a survey of 6 is obviously a pretty small sample size and not indicative of global sales.

It does matter to understand your perception and the energy you seems to put in trusting the numbers you push.
You push numbers that are so high that should be somehow visible in any shop, statistically impossible that 6/6 are by pure luck not seeing the numbers you claim.

Furthermore you refer to sram numbers but giant talk about still 40% rim brakes in 2020 when most “comfort bikes” being already disc.

Last but not least shimano’s comment: "Rim brakes aren't going away anytime soon," Lawrence says. "People are still looking for the absolute lightest bike. We have never tried to push one way or the other. We build both."





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