Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

[Calnago]

@Tobin: You make it sound like everyone’s been screaming for discs on road bikes forever. That’s not the case at all. The manufacturers have pushed the market this way. Demand is created in two ways... Push, where demand is created by marketing, and Pull, where consumers want for something new. The manufacturers have been pushing this for a long time now, it didn’t just happen. The “pull” part of it never really occurred and likely wouldn’t have without over five years of heavy “push” from the manufacturers. Thus the plans they made 5 years ago and coming off the production lines now needs continual pushing. They’re almost there... a new paradigm where the benefits are arguably (an understatement) marginal at best, with some very clear downsides. But, for now... looks like they’ve won. But those damn pros... they keep resisting. Damn them! They will succumb, one way or another. The manufacturers will just stop producing the bikes they like to ride. Brilliant.

[TobinHatesYou]

That's not what I'm saying at all? I'm saying the market is moving in one direction quite rapidly now and it's unlikely to reverse course, not in any meaningful sense. I really don't think the major brands will stoke a rim-brake renaissance via marketing given the data that is floating around.

What the pros ride is really inconsequential. Their needs and attitudes do not reflect on most people.

[spdntrxi]

Those who only lean in favor of rim-brakes are will just adopt disc because that's where the market is headed.

this is me... I get what your saying and happen to agree. I have some good buds of mine in the retail sector in NorCal.. the writing is on the wall..big bold ghetto style tagged all over the place. It's not getting sandblasted anytime soon.

[Calnago]

Agree on where things are now, but where things are now has been created by a push marketing strategy by the manufacturers. I doubt there’s going to be any kind of resurgence either. The mountainization of the road bike is happening. Sad. There isn’t a single road bike out there today that I would trade any of the bikes in my garage for. Choice is always good. It’s just that it looks like the manufacturers are taking that away to ensure the success of the final push.

[C36]

All I'm saying is that if every other bike in a catalog is disc based, a large-scale brand is not going to acquiesce to the demands of a few. Those who only lean in favor of rim-brakes are will just adopt disc because that's where the market is headed. You gotta admit, that never-disc crowd is tiny (and shrinking) in the grand scheme and unlikely to influence the market.

So yeah, the smaller boutique brands will hold onto rim-brake bikes for years. No one doubts that, but disc is likely to make up >90% of all performance road sales by 2020. Our personal preferences don't really matter here unless you believe the percentages have been misrepresented.

Tobin, asking again the question, where are you living? I see you extremely intransigent regarding what people “want” and if I can see this fitting with the US I don’t see it fitting with Europe.

After reading your messages I called 6 friend LBS in 4 countries (Spain, France, Belgium, Italy) and NONE expect road performance disc brakes to even get close from 50% for next year.
Then I called 2 in Houston who expect 80% (absolute nonsense since that definitively the population that needed the less).



Envoyé de mon iPhone en utilisant Tapatalk

[TobinHatesYou]

Where we live doesn't really matter according to the numbers the OEM industry is touting. So basically the topic of discussion becomes whether we think the numbers are real or lies. My thoughts are those 80-90% global sales numbers are real, and even if they are cooking the books by a few percentage points, it hardly matters at those extremes.

WRT your friend's LBSes... a survey of 6 is obviously a pretty small sample size and not indicative of global sales.

[RyanH]

Source....

[jlok]

just a small piece of news... http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/ful ... r-in-2018/

FWIF, riders around my circle intend to buy their next bike with disc brake. They agree that it's useful in our hilly roads despite rim brake is sufficient with the new gen carbon clinchers, despite my continuous demonstration of the short-comings of disc brake tech. They like the bigger room of safety of disc brake. Some with better handling skills like the consistency of braking and allowing them to brake later and hence become more confident downhill. For those who could keep more than one bike, they will keep their nice bikes with deep carbon wheels for flatter routes.

I suggest that they should wait and see the MY2020 GC bikes, which should appear ard TdF next year.

[TobinHatesYou]

jlok's link is one I've referenced before.

For MY2018 (mostly calendar 2017,) SRAM's OEM road brake sales were 87% disc. For calendar year 2018, Shimano claimed disc sales would be the majority. If Shimano's disc sales follow the same trajectory as SRAM's, then in 2019 ~80% of their OEM road brakes sold will be disc.

There was also a GCN nterview with a Vision rep recently where he projects 80-90% of performance road bikes sold in 2019 will be disc. I know our industry insiders like Damon Rinard probably can't discuss hard numbers, but maybe he can just give us a nod or wink WRT to sales in the last couple years and projections in the next couple...

[ome rodriguez]

Does this mean only the pro gc riders will have rimbrake bikes and everybody else on discbrakes in the future?

[neeb]

There was also a GCN nterview with a Vision rep recently where he projects 80-90% of performance road bikes sold in 2019 will be disc.

And the comments under that show were 70%-80% against discs. GCN viewers aren’t the tiny weight weenie minority you were characterising rim brake proponents as, they are rank and file enthusiasts and weekend warriors. The statistics that you say the industry are basing their projections on hide a fatal false premise, which is that overall global trends in the road bike market as a whole reflect a relatively uniform pattern internationally and among different cycling culture demographics - this is not the case, opinion is massively polarised in these dimensions and others. The industry seems to think that this polarisation will flatten out the more they push discs, but the opposite is the case - the gulf will become more apparent and more and more vocal, leading to considerable unpredictability and instability in the high-end market, which is not good for anyone.

Sounds as if the market research people in the bike industry really need to up their game. Performance bikes aren’t washing machines or TVs, they are items that their users have considerable personal investment in that links into their health and well-being, social lives and long-established cultures and subcultures.

The day that all cyclists adopt discs will be the day that they all stop shaving their legs - isn’t going to happen any time soon.

[robeambro]

jlok's link is one I've referenced before.

For MY2018 (mostly calendar 2017,) SRAM's OEM road brake sales were 87% disc. For calendar year 2018, Shimano claimed disc sales would be the majority. If Shimano's disc sales follow the same trajectory as SRAM's, then in 2019 ~80% of their OEM road brakes sold will be disc.

There was also a GCN nterview with a Vision rep recently where he projects 80-90% of performance road bikes sold in 2019 will be disc. I know our industry insiders like Damon Rinard probably can't discuss hard numbers, but maybe he can just give us a nod or wink WRT to sales in the last couple years and projections in the next couple...

I fully agree on the 2018 stats. No discussion there. That's hard data, more of less reliable.

However, I would take with a buttload of salt what an industry insider *projects* for the future. They clearly have financial interests in igniting self-fulfilling prophecies of disc dominance over rim.. If he'd said "oh we project to sell 50:50 rim vs disc", then not all undecided consumers would fret to get a disc bike. If they say, even with absolutely ZERO reason "we project 80-90% of bikes to be disc", well, most undecided consumers will draw the conclusion that the future is disc, and his projection will turn out to be true, even if it was very much false in the first place.

And I say this as a disc person. But what do I know, I'm just a noob who falls for the marketing.

[TobinHatesYou]

neeb, they are using global sales figures. This is not a regional thing. 87% of SRAM's road brake sales from roughly 17Q2 to 18Q3 were disc. Shimano's forecast at the start of calendar 2018 was for the majority of their OEM road brake sales being disc. If Shimano's road disc brake growth shadows SRAM's, that number will be around ~80% in 2019 and >90% in 2020. That would suggest the Vision rep is pretty much on point with his prediction.

I would not trust YouTube comments over historical sales figures and in-house market predictions.

I fully agree on the 2018 stats. No discussion there. That's hard data, more of less reliable.

However, I would take with a buttload of salt what an industry insider *projects* for the future. They clearly have financial interests in igniting self-fulfilling prophecies of disc dominance over rim.. If he'd said "oh we project to sell 50:50 rim vs disc", then not all undecided consumers would fret to get a disc bike. If they say, even with absolutely ZERO reason "we project 80-90% of bikes to be disc", well, most undecided consumers will draw the conclusion that the future is disc, and his projection will turn out to be true, even if it was very much false in the first place.

And I say this as a disc person. But what do I know, I'm just a noob who falls for the marketing.

We have no reason to believe SRAM's and Shimano's adoption rates will differ. They are likely just time-shifted by one year. In fact I think it's remarkable that SRAM's disc sales percentages are so high when their line-up is overdue for updates (their mechanical groups are 4 and 5 years old.) The combination of SRAM and Shimano's sales should be pretty representative of the larger market.

[robeambro]

neeb, they are using global sales figures. This is not a regional thing. 87% of SRAM's road brake sales from roughly 17Q2 to 18Q3 were disc. Shimano's forecast at the start of calendar 2018 was for the majority of their OEM road brake sales being disc. If Shimano's road disc brake growth shadows SRAM's, that number will be around ~80% in 2019 and >90% in 2020. That would suggest the Vision rep is pretty much on point with his prediction.

I would not trust YouTube comments over historical sales figures and in-house market predictions.

I fully agree on the 2018 stats. No discussion there. That's hard data, more of less reliable.

However, I would take with a buttload of salt what an industry insider *projects* for the future. They clearly have financial interests in igniting self-fulfilling prophecies of disc dominance over rim.. If he'd said "oh we project to sell 50:50 rim vs disc", then not all undecided consumers would fret to get a disc bike. If they say, even with absolutely ZERO reason "we project 80-90% of bikes to be disc", well, most undecided consumers will draw the conclusion that the future is disc, and his projection will turn out to be true, even if it was very much false in the first place.

And I say this as a disc person. But what do I know, I'm just a noob who falls for the marketing.

We have no reason to believe SRAM's and Shimano's adoption rates will differ. They are likely just time-shifted by one year. In fact I think it's remarkable that SRAM's disc sales percentages are so high when their line-up is overdue for updates (their mechanical groups are 4 and 5 years old.) The combination of SRAM and Shimano's sales should be pretty representative of the larger market.

Oh I agree, I don't think that the figures be made up. I just say that they may decide to cherry-pick, ie. include/exclude data to better show what they want to show.
That being said, I am definitely hoping for a disc future as pictured by those figures! More sales would bring investment in the category, which would in turn definitely bring improvements in the quality and -especially- ease of maintenance over time.

[wheelsONfire]

Years ago, when Volagi started it all with disc brakes on road bikes, the main consensus was, if you need disc brakes on your road bike you're riding a tractor.
You haven't learned to use rim brakes and alot of other words. Sometimes you were written off like an idiot.
Now most of all these guys surely ride disc brakes.
I wonder how this happened without the influence or marketing?
Or what makes people change so drastically?