Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

[mattr]

5%

less than that.

My next road purchase is going to have to be in the next 18 months, as the pool of frames/bikes that meet my requirements is getting smaller, year on year.
Even where frames haven't yet been replaced by disc versions, the model count has changed rapidly. Gone are the days of 1/4 disc, 3/4 rim.

[tymon_tm]

In the near future the pros will be on discs and if not, they’ll be on “pro only” rim version of disc bikes available to the public (think Boonen’s white Roubaix). Rim brake development has already ceased, there’s no point in pretending change isn’t happening. There will always be custom makers willing to produce rim brake frames which is great because we all know factory bikes are for people with no dreams

afaik shimano brakes are better with every iteration - I'd call that development. btw that argument can be used with at least few parts, like for instance stems (we'll see integrated combos take over market because stem development hit the wall). in many cases bike components are so good, so 'complete' there's only so much manufacturers can change about them. think the whole wheel design or saddles.. that doesn't mean they need replacing by something "new" or different.

[Wookski]

afaik shimano brakes are better with every iteration - I'd call that development.

9100/ 9150 is now 2 years old so you could argue they were still being developed pre mainstream disc transition. Even then they are not really better- slightly more power at the expense of more weight. SRAM red rim brakes have not been updated in years and Campagnolo have followed shimano with more weight and a little more power.

Take the mech vs electronic analogy- the only company that is developing their mech offering is Campy with 12 speed. I guess they’ve realised their customers will still pay over $2K for a mech group. Everyone else is focussed firmly on electronic and disco.

[tymon_tm]

again, I'd like to see sales figures re: mech vs. electro and rim vs. discs, at least regarding top two groupsets from each manufacturer.

for now it's just speculation and observation, but those make me wanna bet that despite most likely discs see a huge increase in sales, there's just no way they're gonna outsell rim brakes in the nearest future. why? they're still a lot more expensive just like Di2 is - for someone targeting an Ultegra-level speced bike it's a fairly easy call - get discs and electric OR a better frame/wheels/components OR save a lot of cash. looking at Canyon Aeroad range, there's nearly a 1k euro increase in price going from 8.0 Ultegra mech to Di2 and another grand to Di2 discs - that's a freakin lot! it's more than a price of an Ultimate CF 7.0

[C36]

2020, Uci president just announce they’re thinking in dropping the weight limitation after 2020 olympics.
For the same reasons brands lobby the uci not to drop the weight limit now to avoid messing up their “investments / marketing plan” on aero / disc brakes lines, if it happens in 2020... we will be “explained how rim brake are a “Purer” riding experience, lighter and with amazing braking capabilities due to “latest” development.


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[jih]

Most bikes as-sold aren’t on the UCI limit now so I don’t see why lowering the limit would make stock bikes go lighter

[RussellS]

Your question was wether the top disc brake only bikes will have rim brake offereings. For some reason some of the commentors are talking about rim brakes becoming extinct and the sales ratio of disc and rim brake bikes overall. That is irrelevant. Specialized, BMC, Cervelo, Cannondale all have their top aero bikes as disc and electronic only. Trek chose for the moment to offer both disc, rim, mechanical, and electronic for their top aero bike. I would not be surprised if Trek abandons that in a few years. For the top aero bikes from all of these makers, its $10,000 give or take a few thousand. So cost is immaterial. The people buying these bikes want the best bike. That is electronic and disc and aero. No one with a brain will even try to argue that mechanical shifters shift as well as electronic. No one with a brain will even try to argue that disc brakes do not brake better than rim brakes. Before you even throw in carbon rims. And no one with a brain will try to argue that an aero bike is not the fastest. If you are spending $10,000+, you want the best. Aero, electronic, disc. No reason for bike companies to offer half arse best bikes at this level. So the top end disc only bikes will stay as disc and electronic only.

[Matt28NJ]

Most bikes as-sold aren’t on the UCI limit now so I don’t see why lowering the limit would make stock bikes go lighter

+1

The vast majority of road bikes are sold with downmarket Shimano groupsets and are several pounds off the UCI weight limit.

I'll sit up and take notice when a stock, 105, value priced carbon build from a mainstream manufacturer comes in at 15lbs.

[C36]

Most bikes as-sold aren’t on the UCI limit now so I don’t see why lowering the limit would make stock bikes go lighter

Because Pro-races drive the marketing on performance-road-bike and if they can go 5kg, you can be sure they will push this to the stores.
Once aero and disc brakes bikes renewal cycle would be completed they will look for another growth source. Simple business.


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[bm0p700f]

The chance is zero of rim brake bikes making a comeback. Smaller manufacturers will offer them but the big companies sell to the mass market and in 5 years that will be disc only, perhaps it won't take that long.

[wheelsONfire]

Most aren't as specific as the fanatics, so people will adapt to what is being marketed as the best.
My guess is that rim brake bikes second hand value will drop more than disc brake bikes.
Sales seems to differ a bit pending on region.
But in general disc is leading by far.

I know you guys will word poop me for saying this, but i hope mechanical disc calipers will evolve.

[northwestern]

2020, Uci president just announce they’re thinking in dropping the weight limitation after 2020 olympics.
For the same reasons brands lobby the uci not to drop the weight limit now to avoid messing up their “investments / marketing plan” on aero / disc brakes lines, if it happens in 2020... we will be “explained how rim brake are a “Purer” riding experience, lighter and with amazing braking capabilities due to “latest” development.


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Exactomundo. Once everyone switches to disk brakes, we'll all be told that "recent studies" reveal that rim brakes are better.

[tymon_tm]

cost is immaterial

to whome? do you think only zillionaires buy top end bikes? BTW rich people bargain like crazy, actually many view them as the worst customers...

I just ordered a new SLR with mech and obviously rim brakes. and I am selling my current ride to make up for the heavy price tag. perhaps if money was no object I'd go electronic - but since it doesn't change anything regarding my riding (been there, tried that) I see no point in paying extra just cause "it befits". same with discs - a stupid downgrade for most users, yet praised like a gospel. IMHO people lose their ability to tell what a given product is really worth to them, they just follow every novelty like sheep

[youngs_modulus]

2020, Uci president just announce they’re thinking in dropping the weight limitation after 2020 olympics.
For the same reasons brands lobby the uci not to drop the weight limit now to avoid messing up their “investments / marketing plan” on aero / disc brakes lines, if it happens in 2020... we will be “explained how rim brake are a “Purer” riding experience, lighter and with amazing braking capabilities due to “latest” development.


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Exactomundo. Once everyone switches to disk brakes, we'll all be told that "recent studies" reveal that rim brakes are better.

Why do you say that? Nothing of the sort happened with mountain bikes when they adopted disc brakes. Why are you anticipating these "studies?"

[RedbullFiXX]

When manufacturers design a QR system that allows quick wheel changes without discs rubbing the days of rim brakes will probably be numbered.


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QR Front wheel swap, close to TA, provided the right tool is used
TA Rear wheel changes may still require a bit more finesse though

None of that matters to 99.99% of us

F1 Teams change 4 wheels in less than 3s
This isn't rocket surgery