Next gen Dura Ace
Moderator: robbosmans
I was wondering if anyone has any ideas about when we can expect the next generation of Dura Ace and what new features it might include. Will we see this within the next year? Will Shimano go full wireless? 13 speed cassette perhaps? Interested to hear your thoughts and speculation
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You can expect a new proprietary charger cable connector that is incompatible with the ones you already have.
With SRAM eating Shimano market share it would be smart for Shimano to go full wireless. Not because end users want it but because it cuts labor hours required to build bikes which has a direct impact on margins for shops and manufacturers. I definitely know people choosing SRAM simply because it saves time. Unless Shimano addresses these types of factors they are going to be reduced to a niche component supplier while SRAM gobbles the rest of the market.
Brakes and shift quality continue to be market leading. They can leave those alone.
Gear range could be addressed by going to 13s, but this isn't a purchase driving concern for most people I know. It is however an easy to market feature that will sell units. Who wants to buy the 12s when there is a new 13s available? 13 must be better than 12, right?!?!? For all of us here who obsess over details and data, the vast majority of the market impulse buys overpriced bicycles from relatively unknowledgeable LBS sales people. Little things like 12 vs 13 can impact a lot of purchases.
With SRAM eating Shimano market share it would be smart for Shimano to go full wireless. Not because end users want it but because it cuts labor hours required to build bikes which has a direct impact on margins for shops and manufacturers. I definitely know people choosing SRAM simply because it saves time. Unless Shimano addresses these types of factors they are going to be reduced to a niche component supplier while SRAM gobbles the rest of the market.
Brakes and shift quality continue to be market leading. They can leave those alone.
Gear range could be addressed by going to 13s, but this isn't a purchase driving concern for most people I know. It is however an easy to market feature that will sell units. Who wants to buy the 12s when there is a new 13s available? 13 must be better than 12, right?!?!?
For all of us here who obsess over details and data, the vast majority of the market impulse buys overpriced bicycles from relatively unknowledgeable LBS sales people. Little things like 12 vs 13 can impact a lot of purchases.-
rollinslow
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Wireless seems like a must but I'm not sure how they will get around SRAM's patent and Campy patented their design. They will again need something novel different from Campy and SRAM.
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OtterSpace
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GRX and MTB are both heavily limited by requiring a wired battery that usually is placed in the seatpost. This is Shimano's biggest weakness in the market right now.
They are signaling that they plan to address this with 1x GRX within the next year which will show where they are going for road. There are already patents that show where they are going too.
Prob 90% chance next Dura-Ace is 12s. However, in the rare chance they go 13s: For 12s road Shimano didn't extend cassette range much so I hope they use an extra 13s cog for more range not a thighter block. Hanger mounting standards are critical for 13s too where SRAM are way ahead.
Shimano's cranksets are recall mitigated boat anchors with a PM that should never have hit the market and should be the easiest thing to fix and a huge weight win too. Very low hanging fruit. However, Shimano's head seems fully buried in the sand on this one. Amazing chainrings though.
The other large change I would prefer is a good clutch for road. Should be easy to add this and still save >50g for the whole groupset if ~100g is saved on the crankset.
Smaller stuff: hood shape change to better support turned in levers, braking improvements are always nice to see, and as always lower weight and lower price preferable.
They are signaling that they plan to address this with 1x GRX within the next year which will show where they are going for road. There are already patents that show where they are going too.
Prob 90% chance next Dura-Ace is 12s. However, in the rare chance they go 13s: For 12s road Shimano didn't extend cassette range much so I hope they use an extra 13s cog for more range not a thighter block. Hanger mounting standards are critical for 13s too where SRAM are way ahead.
Shimano's cranksets are recall mitigated boat anchors with a PM that should never have hit the market and should be the easiest thing to fix and a huge weight win too. Very low hanging fruit. However, Shimano's head seems fully buried in the sand on this one. Amazing chainrings though.
The other large change I would prefer is a good clutch for road. Should be easy to add this and still save >50g for the whole groupset if ~100g is saved on the crankset.
Smaller stuff: hood shape change to better support turned in levers, braking improvements are always nice to see, and as always lower weight and lower price preferable.
I know that's where the market is going, but I'm one that doesn't care for the clunky batteries on SRAM/Campy and really prefer the integrated battery of current Di2.
Shimano's crankset is obviously an area they could improve on and their powermeter is a joke - they need to be able to offer a quality affordable power meter.
Shimano's crankset is obviously an area they could improve on and their powermeter is a joke - they need to be able to offer a quality affordable power meter.
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BenCousins
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Are you talking road only? Do you have some market data? Lots of people I know use Sram, but I rarely see it on new bikes.
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Just grateful shimano didn't sacrifice road gearing for off-road compatibility as sram did.
Sram's just wasting a cog for no benefit really. Having a smaller big chainring that requires a smaller cog doesn't add any value imo. It might be ok for mtb or gravel but it shouldn't come at the expense of having the same jumps of a 11-32 cassette in the smaller gears.
Only if I lived in flatland then I could consider sram as I wouldn't care much about jumps in the cassette but only about the range as they sell it.
Also full wireless, I see the ease of installation but then one has to keep track of additional batteries to charge separately and those batteries should be unplugged frequently if not in use for some time.
So I really dont see sram as serious competition for road although I'd really like to see a similar carbon crankset being made by shimano.
Finally, I really can't stand to see rival on road bikes maybe just me but I'd take 105 any day.
Sram's just wasting a cog for no benefit really. Having a smaller big chainring that requires a smaller cog doesn't add any value imo. It might be ok for mtb or gravel but it shouldn't come at the expense of having the same jumps of a 11-32 cassette in the smaller gears.
Only if I lived in flatland then I could consider sram as I wouldn't care much about jumps in the cassette but only about the range as they sell it.
Also full wireless, I see the ease of installation but then one has to keep track of additional batteries to charge separately and those batteries should be unplugged frequently if not in use for some time.
So I really dont see sram as serious competition for road although I'd really like to see a similar carbon crankset being made by shimano.
Finally, I really can't stand to see rival on road bikes
maybe just me but I'd take 105 any day.
All I want for Christmas is a 12sp 11-32 cassette with a 16t cog. The lack of gearing options in the current gen offering is just bizarre and makes me consider SRAM for my next build despite higher price in Europe and limited compatibility with 3rd party drivetrain components.
BenCousins wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 9:17 pmAre you talking road only? Do you have some market data? Lots of people I know use Sram, but I rarely see it on new bikes.
SRAM is alleged to have about 30% of the road market now. While still a minority slice of the pie it is an expanding slice, while Shimano is in decline. On MTB Shimano is already nearly irrelevant. SRAM has achieved the technological upper hand and is innovating faster. As a Shimano person myself this does not delight me.
This just means that Shimano is less and less likely to leapfrog ahead of SRAM. More likely the next gen Dura Ace will be trying to catch up, not get ahead. I hope I'm wrong. I'll be in the market for a new groupset next year and hope Shimano has something to offer me.
They have a lot to fix first.
12-speed hyperglide+ cassettes are noise generators, I have the same sorts of clicking sound on both 11-34 and 11-30 Ultegra cassettes. They really need to figure out how to manufacture the cassettes more consistently... I mean hyperglide+ is really cool, but it is also a manufacturing nightmare.
Internal electric wire is just annoying. It should be fully wireless all the way to the 105 level, I care less about Dura-Ace because it is not in my world.
I don't mind if they still stick with the 12-speed, 13-speed drivetrain would be a cross-chain hell for sure. Most aggressive climbing/aero bikes only have a 410mm chainstay, no way they can avoid very noisy drivetrain and chain rub.
Shimano's power meters are also an absolute joke.
12-speed hyperglide+ cassettes are noise generators, I have the same sorts of clicking sound on both 11-34 and 11-30 Ultegra cassettes. They really need to figure out how to manufacture the cassettes more consistently... I mean hyperglide+ is really cool, but it is also a manufacturing nightmare.
Internal electric wire is just annoying. It should be fully wireless all the way to the 105 level, I care less about Dura-Ace because it is not in my world.
I don't mind if they still stick with the 12-speed, 13-speed drivetrain would be a cross-chain hell for sure. Most aggressive climbing/aero bikes only have a 410mm chainstay, no way they can avoid very noisy drivetrain and chain rub.
Shimano's power meters are also an absolute joke.
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Yep lots of stuff they could work on:
1) All 3 12spd bikes I've had have had noisy as hell cassettes and/or poor shifting towards the pointy end of the cassette, e.g. the 13->12 shift takes multiple seconds to catch and no shop can fix this. I'm told 54-40 combined with 11-34 is the cause, that's too much chain to handle. Well why is it called compatible, then? 11spd gave me exactly zero issues for half a dozen years, and then this.
2) 160mm freeza rotors will generally warp immediately upon the first hard application from high speed. That can't be fixed. If you bend it back, it just warps easier next time.
3) Brake pads could use more ability to handle heat, although maybe that's a function of the steel rotors I'm running to avoid the steel/aly/steel rotors warping.
4) Front shifting is amazing when it works, but 2 out of 3 12 speed bikes I've had have not had enough adjustment range to get enough throw to reliably shift up to the big ring. Could be the frames fault, but we're talking highest end frames from big-name manufacturers. It's probably within a reasonable tolerance range of true, so it probably needs to be accountable for by the FD.
Meanwhile I care not at all about wireless - infact I like having less clunky deraileurs, I like having only one battery to charge, and it lasts ages. I actually hardwire my front shifters into the back of the bike to extend the battery life of the bike (neat trick, if you didn't know). For me, next gen shimano would be great if it was the same thing but just less drama to run reliably and maintain, by fixing these issues. An evolution step is justified before a revolution step, perhaps. Although frankly that maybe should have happened mid-cycle since I feel like it should mostly be small tweaks.
1) All 3 12spd bikes I've had have had noisy as hell cassettes and/or poor shifting towards the pointy end of the cassette, e.g. the 13->12 shift takes multiple seconds to catch and no shop can fix this. I'm told 54-40 combined with 11-34 is the cause, that's too much chain to handle. Well why is it called compatible, then? 11spd gave me exactly zero issues for half a dozen years, and then this.
2) 160mm freeza rotors will generally warp immediately upon the first hard application from high speed. That can't be fixed. If you bend it back, it just warps easier next time.
3) Brake pads could use more ability to handle heat, although maybe that's a function of the steel rotors I'm running to avoid the steel/aly/steel rotors warping.
4) Front shifting is amazing when it works, but 2 out of 3 12 speed bikes I've had have not had enough adjustment range to get enough throw to reliably shift up to the big ring. Could be the frames fault, but we're talking highest end frames from big-name manufacturers. It's probably within a reasonable tolerance range of true, so it probably needs to be accountable for by the FD.
Meanwhile I care not at all about wireless - infact I like having less clunky deraileurs, I like having only one battery to charge, and it lasts ages. I actually hardwire my front shifters into the back of the bike to extend the battery life of the bike (neat trick, if you didn't know). For me, next gen shimano would be great if it was the same thing but just less drama to run reliably and maintain, by fixing these issues. An evolution step is justified before a revolution step, perhaps. Although frankly that maybe should have happened mid-cycle since I feel like it should mostly be small tweaks.
