2024 product release rumors

[Nickldn]

No. While the contract manufacturers usually develop layups to a set of requirements provided by the big brands, all R&D/design before that is done at home.

It's simple enough to count the number of employees in their home countries, add up their salaries, add profit, add local costs (rent, utilities, etc) and so on. That's the minimum amount of money that is earned/spent in the home country as part of their operations.

Even simpler: for something like an SL8, much less than $1k will go to the factory. Buy a $2000 Winspace and all of that is gone.

And again, this is still just the economic portion on the list of issues. Specialized makes sure their contractor doesn't use imported workers who had their passports taken, and 10 of them sleep in a 5sqm room working like wage slaves until they pay of their hiring fees. It may sound like hyperbole but even some of the bigger factories still do that stuff (among other equally bad things) unless their customers force them to. So even if "it's all made in China anyway" there's still a huge spectrum of what behavior your money perpetuates.

My impression is that many brands leave the carbon layup decisions to the manufacturer. Again, Specialized and perhaps a few other big brands may be an exception to this rule.

[Nickldn]

No. While the contract manufacturers usually develop layups to a set of requirements provided by the big brands, all R&D/design before that is done at home.

It's simple enough to count the number of employees in their home countries, add up their salaries, add profit, add local costs (rent, utilities, etc) and so on. That's the minimum amount of money that is earned/spent in the home country as part of their operations.

Even simpler: for something like an SL8, much less than $1k will go to the factory. Buy a $2000 Winspace and all of that is gone.

And again, this is still just the economic portion on the list of issues. Specialized makes sure their contractor doesn't use imported workers who had their passports taken, and 10 of them sleep in a 5sqm room working like wage slaves until they pay of their hiring fees. It may sound like hyperbole but even some of the bigger factories still do that stuff (among other equally bad things) unless their customers force them to. So even if "it's all made in China anyway" there's still a huge spectrum of what behavior your money perpetuates.

My impression is that many brands leave the carbon layup decisions to the manufacturer. Point being most brands do very little engineering and so don't add much economic value.

Again, Specialized and perhaps a few other big brands may be an exception to this rule.

[Nickldn]

No. While the contract manufacturers usually develop layups to a set of requirements provided by the big brands, all R&D/design before that is done at home.

It's simple enough to count the number of employees in their home countries, add up their salaries, add profit, add local costs (rent, utilities, etc) and so on. That's the minimum amount of money that is earned/spent in the home country as part of their operations.

Even simpler: for something like an SL8, much less than $1k will go to the factory. Buy a $2000 Winspace and all of that is gone.

And again, this is still just the economic portion on the list of issues. Specialized makes sure their contractor doesn't use imported workers who had their passports taken, and 10 of them sleep in a 5sqm room working like wage slaves until they pay of their hiring fees. It may sound like hyperbole but even some of the bigger factories still do that stuff (among other equally bad things) unless their customers force them to. So even if "it's all made in China anyway" there's still a huge spectrum of what behavior your money perpetuates.

My impression is that many brands leave the carbon layup decisions to the manufacturer. Point being most brands do very little engineering and so don't add much economic value.

Again, Specialized and perhaps a few other big brands may be an exception to this rule.

[Requiem84]

Until last year I worked in tax/finance for one if the largest cycling multinationals.

I have seen hundreds of BOM's (bill of material). Generally 40-50% of the value of the bike is sourced in China (frame+forks being the largest value driver). Groupsets luckily typically not from Chinese origin usually, otherwise it would be difficult to remain below certain thresholds.

Doesn't matter really which bicycle you buy, you'll sponsor Chinese economy anyways.

[Nickldn]

Until last year I worked in tax/finance for one if the largest cycling multinationals.

I have seen hundreds of BOM's (bill of material). Generally 40-50% of the value of the bike is sourced in China (frame+forks being the largest value driver). Groupsets luckily typically not from Chinese origin usually, otherwise it would be difficult to remain below certain thresholds.

Doesn't matter really which bicycle you buy, you'll sponsor Chinese economy anyways.

Thank you for confirming my assumptions. That ladies and gentlemen of the public is (sadly) the general economic reality in the bicycle industry.

As noted there are a few exceptions, we should be thankful for that and support companies that bring positive innovation to the industry, not just support carbon sweatshops.

[gloscherrybomb]

equally bad things) unless their customers force them to. So even if "it's all made in China anyway" there's still a huge spectrum of what behavior your money perpetuates.

Statement is true, but any assumption that this is always better when you buy a Western brand is not.

I have visited factories in China (not cycling but similar economics) and there is little correlation between brand image and working conditions... even less between brand *price* and working conditions.

If a bike is expensive, the bulk of the reasoning behind that is usually marketing, not investment in Chinese factory conditions.

If you truly want to make a conscious purchase you have to do a lot of work to find out real information... or buy local, which isn't really reasonable for most.

[wheelsONfire]

Great, more Asian brands will soon force the prices down or the big brands will be in deep recess. The inflated prices for the premium framesets are pure bogus. The prices from low grade to high grade isn't near what the asking price is.

Western frameset margins are certainly bogus (bike margins are not) and Chinese brands are taking advantage of it. These $2000 Chinese frames also have insane margins, since their costs are so much lower. Asian brands don't need to worry about a lot of things that western brands spend much more money on (R&D, QC, ESG, CS, etc). When they do, it's certainly to a lesser degree. Some of the big players also get government subsidies.

Also good to have in the back of your mind that money sent abroad will not find its way back to you. It's a nice way to fund other governments and kill economies of your neighbors. If you don't care about your neighbors, you might care that if they don't have money, they won't buy whatever you're selling either.

Given the sentiments I hear daily, it still shocks me how much money people send away to fund things they don't agree with. Americans complain about manufacturing jobs in general, Germans complain about their auto industry, etc. Then they go out and fund that downward trend with their purchases.

If you knew how much money i have spent the last 25 years on things not chinese or copies. No, i merely say that the days of getting fat on others expenses might diminish. That's what i expect and as far as i get it, most people feel the same.

[wheelsONfire]

The whole argument of: you are supporting your domestic economy when you buy from a Western brand is wrong.

Almost all volume Western brands manufacture their wares in the far East, so you are funding goals of their governments when you purchase almost any bike, or part. The slice of the economic pie going to the domestic economy is at best small.

As Tobin mentioned the next US government is very likely to put high tariffs on goods coming from China. This will increase the prices of bikes and parts manufactured there. But buying a Western brand will also become more expensive as most of the products are made in China too, so it goes full circle. The EU has broad exemptions for bicycle parts from tariffs to promote sustainability, but could also introduce new tariffs if it feels bike parts destined for the US are being 'dumped' in the EU due to high US tariffs.

So yeah be patriotic and pay much more.

If those tariffs happen in the USA, you get what we have had for years and years. But most of the people in USA have no idea what happens in other parts of the world. I have mentioned many years ago how tariffs are applied on all things carbon from Asia. Even solar panels have had sickening tariffs. Now it's your turn in the USA, so yeah, welcome to our reality.

[BigBoyND]

My impression is that many brands leave the carbon layup decisions to the manufacturer. Again, Specialized and perhaps a few other big brands may be an exception to this rule.

That's exactly what I said though... manufacturers does the layup

[BigBoyND]

My impression is that many brands leave the carbon layup decisions to the manufacturer. Again, Specialized and perhaps a few other big brands may be an exception to this rule.

That's exactly what I said though... manufacturers do the layup

[BigBoyND]

equally bad things) unless their customers force them to. So even if "it's all made in China anyway" there's still a huge spectrum of what behavior your money perpetuates.

Statement is true, but any assumption that this is always better when you buy a Western brand is not.

I have visited factories in China (not cycling but similar economics) and there is little correlation between brand image and working conditions... even less between brand *price* and working conditions.

If a bike is expensive, the bulk of the reasoning behind that is usually marketing, not investment in Chinese factory conditions.

If you truly want to make a conscious purchase you have to do a lot of work to find out real information... or buy local, which isn't really reasonable for most.

I'm not talking out my ass. I've seen the contracts, I've seen factories, and I've seen the change when western brands came with these contracts.

[wheelsONfire]

No. While the contract manufacturers usually develop layups to a set of requirements provided by the big brands, all R&D/design before that is done at home.

It's simple enough to count the number of employees in their home countries, add up their salaries, add profit, add local costs (rent, utilities, etc) and so on. That's the minimum amount of money that is earned/spent in the home country as part of their operations.

Even simpler: for something like an SL8, much less than $1k will go to the factory. Buy a $2000 Winspace and all of that is gone.

And again, this is still just the economic portion on the list of issues. Specialized makes sure their contractor doesn't use imported workers who had their passports taken, and 10 of them sleep in a 5sqm room working like wage slaves until they pay of their hiring fees. It may sound like hyperbole but even some of the bigger factories still do that stuff (among other equally bad things) unless their customers force them to. So even if "it's all made in China anyway" there's still a huge spectrum of what behavior your money perpetuates.

My impression is that many brands leave the carbon layup decisions to the manufacturer. Point being most brands do very little engineering and so don't add much economic value.

Again, Specialized and perhaps a few other big brands may be an exception to this rule.

That's what i really like with AX. The bike platform looked same for years and years, but Vial EVO have had many revisions. We consumers, we go for shape and form, appealing to the eye. We never consider that a bike looking same might have updates. Not sure of this but i could imagine some brands actually have rolling updates to layups. Or they don't, as mentioned, not sure. I only know for sure since i have had 4 Vial EVO and the last frame have had zero issues.
I noted on a video that they spoke of Asian bikes rode more harsh/ less organic than some of the big brands. In other words, ride feel is worse or lacking.

[BigBoyND]

Until last year I worked in tax/finance for one if the largest cycling multinationals.

I have seen hundreds of BOM's (bill of material). Generally 40-50% of the value of the bike is sourced in China (frame+forks being the largest value driver). Groupsets luckily typically not from Chinese origin usually, otherwise it would be difficult to remain below certain thresholds.

Doesn't matter really which bicycle you buy, you'll sponsor Chinese economy anyways.

Thank you for confirming my assumptions. That ladies and gentlemen of the public is (sadly) the general economic reality in the bicycle industry.

As noted there are a few exceptions, we should be thankful for that and support companies that bring positive innovation to the industry, not just support carbon sweatshops.

Except this is a different topic. I was talking about frames (and it applies to other individual components).

Chinese frames by western brands will not be made under the same conditions and less of your money stays in Asia. There are exceptions to every rule but there is a huge difference on average across the industry.

I hate the sentiment that "its all coming from Asia anyway." I also can't reduce my electricity usage to zero but can still drop it significantly. It's a spectrum, not binary. Just because you can't avoid buying Asian products made in questionable ways, doesn't mean you should just thrown all your money in that direction when you do have a choice.

[gloscherrybomb]

[

I'm not talking out my ass. I've seen the contracts, I've seen factories, and I've seen the change when western brands came with these contracts.

I wasn't really disagreeing with you.

[BigBoyND]

My bad. You said there's little correlation but I've seen huge differences between factories serving western brands with strict requirements vs not.