Impact of a recession on bike prices

[TLN]

The last major recession (2007/2008) made zero difference to the bike market.

There was also different reason. I can totally see how lots of shops ordered 2021-2022 models, receivng them just right now when 2023 models are around the corner.

[cheapvega]

The kinds of people who can spend used car money on a road bike (or 4) are mostly recession proof

I mean there might be a slowdown of sales from folks compensated through equity, but there are still plenty of medical professionals, consultants etc etc.

I would compromise and maybe look at sportier frames to swap all your components over to.

[gruppetto]

fixed price isn't allowed in europe, so that would be a stupid move.

Ever wondered why different McDonalds franchises all have the same price for a BigMac? Price fixing per se might not be legal, but there is still the possibility for de facto price fixing. Sure you can legally sell S-Works frames for 500 €, good luck getting stuff from Specialized in the future.

[DaveS]

I avoided over priced complete bikes with my Yoeleo R12 bikes with Force AXS - one red/black and one pearl white. The pearl white added 3 weeks to delivery time, but no extra cost. I've got two for about the price of one big name bike, equipped the same. I get to pick my bar size, wheels, saddle and tires.

Some brands put 100mm reach bars and an 80mm stem length on a small frame.

[JasonFly]

Hi all,

first time poster. I'd like your opinion on something that have been stopping me from commiting 100% to buying a new bike in the coming months. I'm from Canada and I'm in the market for either a TCR Advanced Pro 0 or a 2023 Cervelo Soloist Ultegra Di2. Both are close to 8500$ with tax and this is a significant amount of money for me and I currently own perfectly good road bike (2021 Defy Advanced Pro 2) so let's just say I do not really need a new road but I'd like to get something a little more sporty than my Defy.

With all this talk about an upcoming short recession (in Canada at least), I'm curious to know what you believe will happen to bike prices if demands finally drops (which you would expect to do in a recession)? Should I wait until next year to commit to a new bike or prices might be either the same or even higher? My hope is that this would reset the bike market and bring more reasonable prices in the future but prehaps I'm being way too optimistic.

Anyways, I'm looking forward to reading your opinions.

Cheers!

LP

I am asking myself more or less the same question, because I think that the current pricing is way too high.

How did we come to this point?

1-I assume that price increase is not 100% justified by cost increase of logistics or raw materials.
Those may be contributing factors, but their true impact is small (eg: a 10.000USD container cost increase should translate in less than +100USD on a bike).
Right now most of these costs have come down to pre COVID levels.
2-We know that COVID has caused both a demand increase and a supply shortage: if you are pretty sure to sell 100% of your production, the smart choice is to increase the prices.
Future demand is expected to be lower (recession, inflation...), this should drive prices down a bit.
Future supply is more difficult to guess, because China right now is a big question mark (COVID Is rampant, factories are running below 50% of their capacity).
My expectation is that supply will not be as thight as in 2020/2021 and will not cause price hikes.
3-Bike and component design has changed: no more mechanical groups means at least 1.000USD more per bike, cable integration easily adds other 300-500USD and so do disc brakes.
I may be wrong, but the newer designs add 2.000USD to an "equivalent" rim brake bike with no integration and mechanical shifting.
Newer frames are electronic only compatibile, so the groupset choice narrows down to very few options.
Little competition, high prices.
I really do not understand frame manufacturers here, they are basically giving a lot more power to SRAM/SHIMANO for no apparent return

To sum up, the price increasing effects of COVID are probably behind us and this will reduce a bit the prices.
Bike design and strategic choices are however making the production more expensive and this will keep the prices higher than pre-covid levels.

I think that big price cuts will be possible only in case of "cheaper" design solution (mechanical + no complete cable integration), but I am afraid we will not see them, not from the bigger brands at least.