2022 New Frame Rumours

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maquisard
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 8:51 pm
Location: France

by maquisard

Indeed, RDY's point is that CAD and Simulation isn't expensive nowadays. Biggest cost is actually software licences, not hardware or processing time.

by Weenie


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HansZuDemFranz
Posts: 137
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 11:39 am

by HansZuDemFranz

carbocation wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:30 am
OlieSimpson wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:30 pm
For me it's not so much the bike industry that is f*cked in terms of pricing, more the road segment of it specifically.

I come from an MTB background and have recently got in to road riding and to be honest, the price of a road bike is shocking for what you actually get. Compare it to a downhill bike where the frame is actually designed to do something rather than just look fast, whilst also adding in adjustability in terms of geo (flip chips, variable wheel sizes 27.5"/29", head angle altering headsets etc.) then add the forks, rear shock, chain guard etc. and you get a significant bang for your buck (example here: https://www.bikester.nl/mondraker-summu ... gLjpfD_BwE).

The materials are largely the same with carbon frames and wheelsets, titanium parts etc., and I bet there is a lot more engineering going on with a DH frame, it just makes the road bike pricing look like a joke!
How much money do you think MTB frame makers spend on wind tunnel and CFD time?
Time in the Wind tunnel also really isnt that expensive. Especially when you consider, that most manufactures only take their finished bike there, to shoot some marketing material.... :wink:

Karvalo
Posts: 3444
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:40 pm

by Karvalo

maquisard wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:33 am
RDY wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:29 am
The Dacia probably has production costs around the €8-9k mark. The €15k bike, absolute max €1500-€2000. if it's a major brand rather than low volume exotica.
Exactly! This is my point which you have described in much better way.

Even a €2.5k Alu/105 bike the parts cost is probably less than 500€. Price inflation is out of control.
Probably? Factor in retailer margin, distributor margin, design, marketing, warranty support and global shipping, that €500 wouldn't leave that much margin for the bike brand.

pmprego
Posts: 2513
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:16 pm

by pmprego

Karvalo wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:32 pm
maquisard wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:33 am
RDY wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:29 am
The Dacia probably has production costs around the €8-9k mark. The €15k bike, absolute max €1500-€2000. if it's a major brand rather than low volume exotica.
Exactly! This is my point which you have described in much better way.

Even a €2.5k Alu/105 bike the parts cost is probably less than 500€. Price inflation is out of control.
Probably? Factor in retailer margin, distributor margin, design, marketing, warranty support and global shipping, that €500 wouldn't leave that much margin for the bike brand.
For instance, a container from china used to cost $4k half a year ago is now costing $15k for the same capacity but taking three time as long to actually arrive to the final destination.

Just an example. Obvisouly brands have to pass through these costs onto the final price. And it's not only bike or bike parts. Even home building materials are costing way higher than a year ago.

I guess it's time to accept things as they are. Either one is willing or has the capacity to pay or it doesn't and moves on.

RDY
Posts: 2354
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:31 pm

by RDY

Karvalo wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:32 pm
maquisard wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:33 am
RDY wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:29 am
The Dacia probably has production costs around the €8-9k mark. The €15k bike, absolute max €1500-€2000. if it's a major brand rather than low volume exotica.
Exactly! This is my point which you have described in much better way.

Even a €2.5k Alu/105 bike the parts cost is probably less than 500€. Price inflation is out of control.
Probably? Factor in retailer margin, distributor margin, design, marketing, warranty support and global shipping, that €500 wouldn't leave that much margin for the bike brand.
Yeah but motorbikes with a BoM 7-8x that of 'super bikes', hugely higher shipping, R&D, support and marketing cost less - often a lot less ... wake up. Beyond cheap basic transport, bikes and a lot of bike parts are priced as rarified luxury goods.

Karvalo
Posts: 3444
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:40 pm

by Karvalo

.

carbocation
Posts: 76
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:40 pm

by carbocation

RDY wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:59 pm
Aikon wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:13 am
RDY wrote:
carbocation wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:30 am


How much money do you think MTB frame makers spend on wind tunnel and CFD time?
Not much, but the cost of suspension design is a lot more costly than that, especially given the number of protos built usually, and what exactly is "CFD time"? :D
Computational Fluid Dynamics, something you can do in-house, or outsource if you don’t have enough processing power
I know what CFD is ...
If marketing BS is to be believed (I know, I know) and companies are using FEA or some algorithmic solution to come up with optimal frame designs, then putting each one of those frame designs through CFD processing, that would translate to a lot of processing power / time, which isn't cheap if you want to do it in a reasonable amount of time at a decent resolution.

I do agree with whomever pointed out in the thread that most companies probably don't spend a lot of time on wind tunnel testing until picture day. But, for at least two companies (Spec and Ridley IIRC), it's worth it enough that they built their own wind tunnels. The #1 thing I know about wind tunnels is that they're fairly expensive.

User avatar
wheelsONfire
Posts: 6283
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:15 am
Location: NorthEU

by wheelsONfire

RDY wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:23 pm
Karvalo wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:32 pm
maquisard wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:33 am
RDY wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:29 am
The Dacia probably has production costs around the €8-9k mark. The €15k bike, absolute max €1500-€2000. if it's a major brand rather than low volume exotica.
Exactly! This is my point which you have described in much better way.

Even a €2.5k Alu/105 bike the parts cost is probably less than 500€. Price inflation is out of control.
Probably? Factor in retailer margin, distributor margin, design, marketing, warranty support and global shipping, that €500 wouldn't leave that much margin for the bike brand.
Yeah but motorbikes with a BoM 7-8x that of 'super bikes', hugely higher shipping, R&D, support and marketing cost less - often a lot less ... wake up. Beyond cheap basic transport, bikes and a lot of bike parts are priced as rarified luxury goods.
Yes, i agree. We could all name a few companies which have invested big (some in short time) and see that it's big money in this.
Pinarello are no big seller of bikes and still a huge amount of money around this company.
Bikes:

Ax Lightness Vial EVO Race (2019.01.03)
Open *UP* (2016.04.14)
Paduano Racing Fidia (kind of shelved)


Ex bike; Vial EVO D, Vial EVO Ultra, Scott Foil, Paduano ti bike.

dsk28
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:10 am

by dsk28

It's just a basic law of supply vs demand, as long as there is demand for it they will raise the price however they see fit.

Our local Specialized distributor just raised prices 3x within the past 30 days for the SL7 Comp due to huge demands.
$5,600 to $5,750 to $6,000 -- all within the past 30 days. Still they run out of stock, unbelievable.

On the other hand, Hybrids & MTBs are piling up ready for purchase with a discount.

Tifosiphil
Posts: 359
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:09 pm

by Tifosiphil

HansZuDemFranz wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:29 pm
carbocation wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:30 am
OlieSimpson wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:30 pm
For me it's not so much the bike industry that is f*cked in terms of pricing, more the road segment of it specifically.

I come from an MTB background and have recently got in to road riding and to be honest, the price of a road bike is shocking for what you actually get. Compare it to a downhill bike where the frame is actually designed to do something rather than just look fast, whilst also adding in adjustability in terms of geo (flip chips, variable wheel sizes 27.5"/29", head angle altering headsets etc.) then add the forks, rear shock, chain guard etc. and you get a significant bang for your buck (example here: https://www.bikester.nl/mondraker-summu ... gLjpfD_BwE).

The materials are largely the same with carbon frames and wheelsets, titanium parts etc., and I bet there is a lot more engineering going on with a DH frame, it just makes the road bike pricing look like a joke!
How much money do you think MTB frame makers spend on wind tunnel and CFD time?
Time in the Wind tunnel also really isnt that expensive. Especially when you consider, that most manufactures only take their finished bike there, to shoot some marketing material.... :wink:
Problem with Wind Tunnels is that the costs rack up really quickly. Going rate in the UK is about £300 an hour. Unfortunately if you are trying things like a bikes profile you can probably only try 3-4 angles per hour. I agree CFD time is much cheaper and the pricing on bikes is going crazy but unfortunately if people will pay it then brands will keep pushing it

User avatar
wheelsONfire
Posts: 6283
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:15 am
Location: NorthEU

by wheelsONfire

Talking bike prices, i wonder if most people does keep to the budget versions and when prices goes up, i guess even more goes for the medium priced bikes instead of premium!?
I hardly ever see anyone here (where i live) on a premium bike. Personally i wouldn't buy any of these new bikes as they're all too expensive.
To me it seems it's best to wait buying ex Shimano. In a year or two it's on sale anyway.
Sooner or later there will be sales on Cervelo, Trek, Spesh etc. As long as you don't actually need to buy a new bike these times, it's better to just stay off.
Bikes:

Ax Lightness Vial EVO Race (2019.01.03)
Open *UP* (2016.04.14)
Paduano Racing Fidia (kind of shelved)


Ex bike; Vial EVO D, Vial EVO Ultra, Scott Foil, Paduano ti bike.

andrewbn42
Posts: 41
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:32 pm

by andrewbn42

pmprego wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:45 pm
Konsi wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:38 pm
Rock climbing is why I found out about my arm span ;)

I meant that having a low stack can be corrected to some extent with spacers, a too high one would need a -20 or -25 degree stem, and most new bikes come with an integrated barstem, so brands would need to offer that (or stick to a lower stack) to make it work for people like me.
But you are a real outlier. +9cm armspan is really something. It's hard to account for that without going custom as @wheelsonfire said.
+9cm isn’t that crazy. It can go higher. I have a +11cm armspan, and yes, it does make things tricky. It’s good that not all brands build to the same geometry, because people vary so much that that would mean many more people would struggle to get a good setup. My brother is a similar height with a -4 cm armspan and short legs, so could not possibly use the same kind of setup or approach that I do.

pmprego
Posts: 2513
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:16 pm

by pmprego

andrewbn42 wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:19 pm
pmprego wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:45 pm
Konsi wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:38 pm
Rock climbing is why I found out about my arm span ;)

I meant that having a low stack can be corrected to some extent with spacers, a too high one would need a -20 or -25 degree stem, and most new bikes come with an integrated barstem, so brands would need to offer that (or stick to a lower stack) to make it work for people like me.
But you are a real outlier. +9cm armspan is really something. It's hard to account for that without going custom as @wheelsonfire said.
+9cm isn’t that crazy. It can go higher. I have a +11cm armspan, and yes, it does make things tricky. It’s good that not all brands build to the same geometry, because people vary so much that that would mean many more people would struggle to get a good setup. My brother is a similar height with a -4 cm armspan and short legs, so could not possibly use the same kind of setup or approach that I do.
Two outliers then :D

otnemem
Posts: 398
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:55 am

by otnemem

cberg wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:13 am
otnemem wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:14 am
cberg wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:46 pm
F74C269E-75DE-47B2-BF12-A7A8C84957F9.jpeg

Bolide TT disc?
Did he use it in the euros?
Nope, and it doesnt look like he has been training on it pre WC either when looking at his socials
It is now likely that Ineos will finally be moving to disc brakes so it makes sense that same will be true for TT bikes.

by Weenie


Visit starbike.com Online Retailer for HighEnd cycling components
Great Prices ✓    Broad Selection ✓    Worldwide Delivery ✓

www.starbike.com




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