Venge now or Tarmac SL7 later

Discuss light weight issues concerning road bikes & parts.
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captainolek
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 5:09 pm

by captainolek

Hi,

I would like to hear what you would advise to do regarding this question. I am basically switching from a Canyon Ultimate CF SLX 9.0 Disc. The idea is to get something a bit more aero and stiff. I was pretty much sold on the Venge but I've heard that it may be discontinued since the new Tarmac SL7 should be more aero and therefore become the only option.

Assuming the new Tarmac will be released during the summer (my LBS opinion), what would you do?

Thanks!

by Weenie


maxim809
Posts: 152
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:28 am

by maxim809

I don't have a crystal ball and this is the first I've heard of such rumor. But typically when I am faced with such crossroads I err towards delayed gratification -- especially when the time horizon is a matter of months.

With that said, I don't know how the world situation is going to fold into the future. It could also be the case that you have indeed been putting off gratification for a very long time already, and there is a pressing desire to fulfill your needs of a new bike in the immediate present. But if I assume a floodgate of new product announcements in the summer, I would Stanford Marshmallow Experiment. (:
2016 Pinarello Dogma F8 | 2016 Bianchi XR4

captainolek
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 5:09 pm

by captainolek

maxim809 wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 9:18 am
I don't have a crystal ball and this is the first I've heard of such rumor. But typically when I am faced with such crossroads I err towards delayed gratification -- especially when the time horizon is a matter of months.

With that said, I don't know how the world situation is going to fold into the future. It could also be the case that you have indeed been putting off gratification for a very long time already, and there is a pressing desire to fulfill your needs of a new bike in the immediate present. But if I assume a floodgate of new product announcements in the summer, I would Stanford Marshmallow Experiment. (:
That's a great input on the psychological side of things. In this case though, delayed gratification is mainly interesting if the new Tarmac SL7 is actually a decent replacement for the current Venge. And I realize this is only rumor-based but I'm happy to hear what people think.

Also I'm wondering what's the usual delay between a release and a frameset availability? I would also need to take that into account as I'd like to enjoy the new bike during the second half of the summer.

Colsjako
Posts: 35
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:55 pm

by Colsjako

Not sure if this story is true; my lbs used to say that specialized has the policy of (re)desiging a new frame, lets say fact13r carbon frame. That will be the new s-works and gettng all the attention and new gimmicks (all cables out of sight). The current fact 12r frame will drop from being s-works to pro level, fact 10r to sport level and so on. Dripping down the status tree ;-). Anyhow, my guess is if you are looking to upgrade to sport tarmac, you'll get this years s-work/pro frame.

True story? This might help decide if you want to wait for a new 2021 sl7 tarmac. Not sure if for example sport version will get a new sl7 frame, or an 'old' sl6 frame which will be called sl7 (but is in fact fact10r or so). Not that its a bad thing tho.

captainolek
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 5:09 pm

by captainolek

Colsjako wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 9:42 am
Not sure if this story is true; my lbs used to say that specialized has the policy of (re)desiging a new frame, lets say fact13r carbon frame. That will be the new s-works and gettng all the attention and new gimmicks (all cables out of sight). The current fact 12r frame will drop from being s-works to pro level, fact 10r to sport level and so on. Dripping down the status tree ;-). Anyhow, my guess is if you are looking to upgrade to sport tarmac, you'll get this years s-work/pro frame.

True story? This might help decide if you want to wait for a new 2021 sl7 tarmac. Not sure if for example sport version will get a new sl7 frame, or an 'old' sl6 frame which will be called sl7 (but is in fact fact10r or so). Not that its a bad thing tho.
Thanks much - this is really interesting and makes sense. However, I am considering the S-Works range should it be for this "generation" or the next one.

ddddd1
Posts: 21
Joined: Sun May 03, 2020 1:34 pm

by ddddd1

Colsjako wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 9:42 am
Not sure if this story is true; my lbs used to say that specialized has the policy of (re)desiging a new frame, lets say fact13r carbon frame. That will be the new s-works and gettng all the attention and new gimmicks (all cables out of sight). The current fact 12r frame will drop from being s-works to pro level, fact 10r to sport level and so on. Dripping down the status tree ;-). Anyhow, my guess is if you are looking to upgrade to sport tarmac, you'll get this years s-work/pro frame.

True story? This might help decide if you want to wait for a new 2021 sl7 tarmac. Not sure if for example sport version will get a new sl7 frame, or an 'old' sl6 frame which will be called sl7 (but is in fact fact10r or so). Not that its a bad thing tho.
This theory has some big holes in it. If you take a look at comparison of all SL5 and SL6 models, every model got the new SL6 design and SL5 models got discontinued or remained to be sold under their original name. Same goes for Venge in comparison with Venge Vias. S-Works always remain S-Works, no downgrading happening.

Regarding the choice, I would go for Venge now, it's probably the best aero frame currently in the market in terms of all-round performance. Plus we don't really know when SL7 will be introduced and when even gets to the market (and additionally waiting times for new models are horrible rn) and the whole thing about SL7 replacing Venge is based on speculation and rumours that are not really based on anything.

captainolek
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 5:09 pm

by captainolek

ddddd1 wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 10:07 am

Regarding the choice, I would go for Venge now, it's probably the best aero frame currently in the market in terms of all-round performance. Plus we don't really know when SL7 will be introduced and when even gets to the market (and additionally waiting times for new models are horrible rn) and the whole thing about SL7 replacing Venge is based on speculation and rumours that are not really based on anything.
Thanks - very helpful. One sub-question: how badly do you this the current Venge would depreciate if the SL7 was actually replacing it?

hannawald
Posts: 883
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:28 pm
Location: Czech Republic

by hannawald

I think switching from Canyon Ultimate CF SLX 9.0 Disc to current Venge is just a side step, not really an upgrade. In this case i will wait. Unless you take one of heavily discounted frameset on bike24..because in few months Canyon will also upgrade so also the resale value of your current frame will decrease..

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wheelsONfire
Posts: 3457
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:15 am
Location: NorthEU

by wheelsONfire

I wouldn't switch between these frames either if it just was aero gains you look for?
Why would you look for a new bike/ frame for the late season?
Bikes:

Ax Lightness Vial EVO Race (2018.12.21)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=156137
Paduano Racing Fidia (kind of shelved)
Open *UP* (2016.04.14)


Ex bike; Vial EVO D

Mikedb
Posts: 132
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:46 am

by Mikedb

I would just wait as the new Tarmac is right around the corner.

I feel you can't go wrong with either, but atleast you will know what new features the SL7 will have before making your purchase.

Karvalo
Posts: 1116
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:40 pm

by Karvalo

Colsjako wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 9:42 am
Not sure if this story is true; my lbs used to say that specialized has the policy of (re)desiging a new frame, lets say fact13r carbon frame. That will be the new s-works and gettng all the attention and new gimmicks (all cables out of sight). The current fact 12r frame will drop from being s-works to pro level, fact 10r to sport level and so on. Dripping down the status tree ;-). Anyhow, my guess is if you are looking to upgrade to sport tarmac, you'll get this years s-work/pro frame.

True story?
No, not a true story.

captainolek
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 5:09 pm

by captainolek

hannawald wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 11:01 am
I think switching from Canyon Ultimate CF SLX 9.0 Disc to current Venge is just a side step, not really an upgrade. In this case i will wait. Unless you take one of heavily discounted frameset on bike24..because in few months Canyon will also upgrade so also the resale value of your current frame will decrease..
Yeah the bike24 deal is an option indeed. Well I don't know if it's an upgrade or not, but I'm glad you tackled the question. The main purpose of that bike would be draft-legal triathlons and duathlons. The ultimate was more than fine for that but if I break out the different criteria it looks like:

weight: ultimate
aero: venge
responsiveness: venge
cornering: ?
descending (less important): venge

Now the way I see it is that the new SL7 could very well come first in all of the above listed categories, including weight. I may be completely wrong so please correct me!

captainolek
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 5:09 pm

by captainolek

wheelsONfire wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 11:56 am
I wouldn't switch between these frames either if it just was aero gains you look for?
Why would you look for a new bike/ frame for the late season?
You are saying that the aero gains with the Venge aren't that big compared to what I already have with the Ultimate? I feel like the Venge could fill the little gaps of the ultimate (lack of responsivess to reaccelerate, not the most aero frameset, better carbon fiber with Specialized - ? -) while still being very balanced and versatile.

captainolek
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 5:09 pm

by captainolek

And as for the reason I would like to switch now, it's mainly because I have more time to care of that now rather than later in the year (or off-season if you prefer). The starting point of my reflexion is that I would like to have homogeneous systems on both my bikes (tri bike and road bike), and that is Sram's 12spd groupsets. Homogeneity matters for me for the ease it brings with respect to switching wheels, switching bikes on the trainer without dismounting the freehub everytime, etc.

Now as this has been tackled, I can also adress the financial part to help you provide an opinion. Basically two options (very very rough estimates):

Venge now: Canyon resell (-3.5K), Venge discounted frameset (2.8K), AXS groupset (2.5K) = 1.8K
Tarmac SL7 later: Canyon resell (-3.2K), Tarmac SL7 frameset (4K), AXS groupset (2.5K) = 3.3K

hannawald
Posts: 883
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:28 pm
Location: Czech Republic

by hannawald

I think it is ok if you tell yourself that you just wanna change and buy Venge:)
You will always find some excuse for that:)

by Weenie


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