Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

Discuss light weight issues concerning road bikes & parts.
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halcyongolf
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by halcyongolf

One day in the not so distant future, all bikes at the 105/rival/potenza level will likley be disc-brake equiped. The disc brakes will get better, they will improve form their current iterations, they will get lighter and more dependable, and soon very few people will bemoan the loss of rim brakes. If disc brakes don't get better, then the market will change and we'll see a rim resurgence. Will this be the result of the industry illuminati? No....just the trial and error of an industry who doesn't have a crystal ball on all tech development of comsumer trends. Does it suck that the consumer may get screwed in this transiton period? Yup, but over time more people will benefit from better products.

There are and always will be certain advantages to rim brakes. However, if the gap gets smaller, and as the advanatges of disc brakes increase, most people won't care that they aren't able to get rim brakes anymore on a "modern" bike.

If you've been around for long enough you remember the same arguments that are levied against disc brakes on road bikes for countless "innovations" along the way. Index shifting, rapidfire shifters, STI/dual control/ergopower, clipless pedals, carbon wheels, carbon whatever, suspension on MTB, dual suspension on MTB, etc etc etc. are were "innovations" that people vociferously protested for and against over the years. The good ideas stuck and became standard, the bad ones died.

Heck, there have been some on here who have even cited some of the aforementioned products as "good" examples of progress versus the evil bike industry centered push for road disc. I have heard people say things like "STI levers are inherently better than downtube shifters with no drawbacks whereas disc has clear disadvantages such as weight, complexity, rubbing." I find these statements odd as if you were of a certain age you can remember the same arguments leveied against road discs today levied against STI. People complained that STI were too heavy, too complicated, too fragile, not needed.... and they probably were....but all these years later very few people are going back to downtube friction shifters on their #1 bike as this technology matured and allowed the inherent benefits of the design outweigh the drawbacks as the products matured.

D

by Weenie


Marin
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by Marin

Well, I went from Double Taps to a barend shifter on my *new rim brake* bike, and if I ever switch back to 2x I'll have the front derailleur operated by a seattube shifter.

But then I'm not you typical consumer I guess.

mattr
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by mattr

Anythings got to be an improvement on double tap.

Marin
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by Marin

Well to me they were a massive improvement over STIs

joejack951
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by joejack951

Spinnekop wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:38 am
So I CHOOSE to buy a Cannondale rim brake bike.
Ooooohhhh....sorry.....I CAN NOT......South Africa's Cannondale importer decided that they will only bring in disc spesific frames for future sales.

Hence my pissyness surrounding the the whole disc frame.

In your boring wet world with insane decents where you NEED discs....no worries....you CHOOSE to buy what you buy.
I can't. I am at the mercy of the greedy bike industry.
Again, you bring up the 'greedy bike industry' forcing you to do something (I assume you are implying that, at least, as the opposite of allowing you to 'CHOOSE' what to buy is to force something upon you, but perhaps I'm wrong again). There are other brands besides Cannondale and there are other ways to get a bike aside from your local shop. If you care so much about not using disc brakes, seriously no one is preventing you from continuing to use them. No guarantees that it won't get a little harder in the future but the 'greedy bike industry' would be very, very dumb to totally abandon a brake design used on so many existing bikes and for which so much tooling already exists (not just for the brakes but for the hubs and rims to use with them). Aftermarket companies certainly won't let it happen.

If you need proof of any of this, go try and buy a freewheel, downtube shifters, 27" tires, quick release disc hubs, 30.6mm seatposts, 26mm handlebars, quill stems, etc. All outdated and replaced by 'new and improved' but still readily available for those who want that stuff for whatever reason.

joejack951
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by joejack951

Marin wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:22 pm
Well, I went from Double Taps to a barend shifter on my *new rim brake* bike, and if I ever switch back to 2x I'll have the front derailleur operated by a seattube shifter.

But then I'm not you typical consumer I guess.
You guess? I hope you are kidding. Where do you even find frames that can be used with a seattube shifter? Or do you mean downtube?

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Dilbert
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by Dilbert

New technology or standards wil displace older if clearly superior. There are too many people riding bikes for a few companies to dictate a standard. The simple challenge for disk brakes is to be superior to the point where the majority of riders consider them so. From the raging debate, disk brakes are not there yet. The switch will happen quickly for a clear winner.

Unconvincing technology will simply fade out - Rockshox RS1, integrated seatposts, are perhaps examples.
Some tech has a clear advantage and takes over quickly: 1 1/8" headsets, 31mm handle bars.
Between the extremes are tech options that are not clear winners: electronic shifting, tubleless road tyres, etc. Roadie disks are still here imo.

Marin
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by Marin

joejack951 wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:32 pm

You guess? I hope you are kidding. Where do you even find frames that can be used with a seattube shifter? Or do you mean downtube?
Simple, I design my own frames and have them built/manufactured :)

neeb
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by neeb

Dilbert wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:44 am
New technology or standards wil displace older if clearly superior. There are too many people riding bikes for a few companies to dictate a standard. The simple challenge for disk brakes is to be superior to the point where the majority of riders consider them so. From the raging debate, disk brakes are not there yet. The switch will happen quickly for a clear winner.

Unconvincing technology will simply fade out - Rockshox RS1, integrated seatposts, are perhaps examples.
Some tech has a clear advantage and takes over quickly: 1 1/8" headsets, 31mm handle bars.
Between the extremes are tech options that are not clear winners: electronic shifting, tubleless road tyres, etc. Roadie disks are still here imo.
I largely agree, although it begs the question: if discs are not proven to have a *clear* technical advantage but end up being one of two different but (on average) equally efficient systems, will professional riders continue to be in a position to choose them if their sponsors strongly discourage it? What price a single marginal gain vs. commerical pressure against it?

At the end of the day the continued use of rim brakes on a selection of high-end, mainstream bikes will completely depend on whether at least some pros continue to use them. Roadies are sufficiently shallow (and I don't entirely exclude myself here) that the halo of desireablity conferred by professional acceptance at the top end of the sport permeates right through the market.

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Lewn777
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by Lewn777

neeb wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:57 pm
Dilbert wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:44 am
New technology or standards wil displace older if clearly superior. There are too many people riding bikes for a few companies to dictate a standard. The simple challenge for disk brakes is to be superior to the point where the majority of riders consider them so. From the raging debate, disk brakes are not there yet. The switch will happen quickly for a clear winner.

Unconvincing technology will simply fade out - Rockshox RS1, integrated seatposts, are perhaps examples.
Some tech has a clear advantage and takes over quickly: 1 1/8" headsets, 31mm handle bars.
Between the extremes are tech options that are not clear winners: electronic shifting, tubleless road tyres, etc. Roadie disks are still here imo.
I largely agree, although it begs the question: if discs are not proven to have a *clear* technical advantage but end up being one of two different but (on average) equally efficient systems, will professional riders continue to be in a position to choose them if their sponsors strongly discourage it? What price a single marginal gain vs. commerical pressure against it?

At the end of the day the continued use of rim brakes on a selection of high-end, mainstream bikes will completely depend on whether at least some pros continue to use them. Roadies are sufficiently shallow (and I don't entirely exclude myself here) that the halo of desireablity conferred by professional acceptance at the top end of the sport permeates right through the market.
Yes but can pros actually use disk bikes effectively? The problem is that it means at least for now all those neutral service vehicles in pro tours will be come redundant. If you take a random disk wheel it won't fit on your disk brake bike properly. This is because the disk postition is different on different wheels meaning a wheel from neutral service 1. might not fit at all or 2. Will rub hideously or 3. Will rub a bit. The caliper bolts need to be loosened and a feeler guage needs to be inserted to get a good fit then the bolts retightened minimum, although sometimes the pistons need to be pushed back into their bores a bit. Then we have different axle standards and disk sizes to add increased complication. Also if the UCI weight limit drops further it could mean disk bikes get even less popular with climbers and hopefully they'll fade from the tours and become the brake of choice for the odd TT bike and most CX bikes. I think it's complication that pros and many ameteur riders just don't need. Time will tell.

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Dilbert
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by Dilbert

Im going to guess that the future will see aero bikes mostly with disks and climbing bikes mostly without.
The stupid UCI weight limit should be scrapped - it serves even less of a purpose now that frames have to be pre-approved. Surely some strength tests can be included in the approval.
(That would also reduce the number of powermeters in the peleton)

mattr
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by mattr

I read an article somewhere regarding wheel swaps and "servicing on the road" will eventually be banned. At the highest level it'll be bike swap or nothing........ Don't know if it'll even come to pass, but might a) drive a few teams out of business and b) solve the wheel incompatibility issue

zefs
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by zefs

Mep wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:44 pm
EDIT: just saw a comment from someone senior at Vision (GCN show) that majority of their sales are on disc brakes, both to manufacturers and consumers alike. So there goes my point about sales proving otherwise..
If manufacturers stop supplying the high end models in rim option it's only logical that the sales on disc brake high end models is increasing.
That doesn't mean everyone would choose the disk version.

MoPho
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by MoPho

zefs wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:22 pm

If manufacturers stop supplying the high end models in rim option it's only logical that the sales on disc brake high end models is increasing.
That doesn't mean everyone would choose the disk version.
Anecdotal, but I part time at a friends shop that pretty much only sells the high end models, the bikes are available as either rim or disc brake and we've barely sold any rim brake bikes this year. Most of the rim brake bikes we have sold have been demos and sold as a discount or were special editions that were only available as rim brake.


.

by Weenie


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tymon_tm
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by tymon_tm

Dilbert wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:06 pm
Im going to guess that the future will see aero bikes mostly with disks and climbing bikes mostly without.
The stupid UCI weight limit should be scrapped - it serves even less of a purpose now that frames have to be pre-approved. Surely some strength tests can be included in the approval.
(That would also reduce the number of powermeters in the peleton)
which is kinda funny given discs aren't aero at all and mountains is where you'd benefit from uber light rims without braking surface :lol:
kkibbler wrote: WW remembers.

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