Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

Discuss light weight issues concerning road bikes & parts.
Locked
neeb
Posts: 529
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 8:19 pm

by neeb

tymon_tm wrote: ↑
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:27 pm
which is kinda funny given discs aren't aero at all and mountains is where you'd benefit from uber light rims without braking surface :lol:
I doubt that tubular disc rims can be developed to be all that much lighter than rim brake ones, and assuming rotating mass really matters then disc wheels need more spokes on the front wheel which would further reduce any small difference.

by Weenie


Mep
Posts: 481
Joined: Fri May 28, 2004 4:11 pm

by Mep

MoPho wrote:
zefs wrote: ↑
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:22 pm

If manufacturers stop supplying the high end models in rim option it's only logical that the sales on disc brake high end models is increasing.
That doesn't mean everyone would choose the disk version.
Anecdotal, but I part time at a friends shop that pretty much only sells the high end models, the bikes are available as either rim or disc brake and we've barely sold any rim brake bikes this year. Most of the rim brake bikes we have sold have been demos and sold as a discount or were special editions that were only available as rim brake.


.
That's a helpful anecdote, this is the kind of stuff that leads me to wonder if the majority of new bike buyers out there are all after the shiny disc brakes. If there's enough sales numbers to back those up (which it sounds like there are), then rim brakes may really not be an option on top end bikes in the near future...

TobinHatesYou
Posts: 3331
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:02 pm

by TobinHatesYou

Mep, Trek has sternly warned its dealers not to inventory rim-brake models because they won’t sell. Disc and visibility/safety was the main topic of LAST year’s Trek World. This year it’s ot even news. Rim brake bikes aren’t selling, they aren’t being stocked, and the remaining inventory is being closed out. This year’s main theme? Operational efficiency, advocacy, customer retention...aka how to stay in business.

Mep
Posts: 481
Joined: Fri May 28, 2004 4:11 pm

by Mep

TobinHatesYou wrote:Mep, Trek has sternly warned its dealers not to inventory rim-brake models because they won’t sell. Disc and visibility/safety was the main topic of LAST year’s Trek World. This year it’s ot even news. Rim brake bikes aren’t selling, they aren’t being stocked, and the remaining inventory is being closed out. This year’s main theme? Operational efficiency...aka how to stay in business.
That is a travesty. Wow, thanks for letting us know. Trek is one of the few who actually make a top end rim brake bike and they don't even wanna sell it? At least those that want rim brake bikes can probably have them at a good discount now, but that's a sad thing to hear from Trek.

TobinHatesYou
Posts: 3331
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:02 pm

by TobinHatesYou

Mep wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:29 am
TobinHatesYou wrote:Mep, Trek has sternly warned its dealers not to inventory rim-brake models because they won’t sell. Disc and visibility/safety was the main topic of LAST year’s Trek World. This year it’s ot even news. Rim brake bikes aren’t selling, they aren’t being stocked, and the remaining inventory is being closed out. This year’s main theme? Operational efficiency...aka how to stay in business.
That is a travesty. Wow, thanks for letting us know. Trek is one of the few who actually make a top end rim brake bike and they don't even wanna sell it? At least those that want rim brake bikes can probably have them at a good discount now, but that's a sad thing to hear from Trek.

It's not a travesty. It's reality. They're looking out for stubborn owners who are ignoring evidence/trends. Don't buy shit that won't sell...order it as needed for the random weirdo who wants a rim-brake Madone for reasons.

User avatar
C36
Posts: 551
Joined: Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:24 am

by C36

TobinHatesYou wrote:Mep, Trek has sternly warned its dealers not to inventory rim-brake models because they won’t sell. Disc and visibility/safety was the main topic of LAST year’s Trek World. This year it’s ot even news. Rim brake bikes aren’t selling, they aren’t being stocked, and the remaining inventory is being closed out. This year’s main theme? Operational efficiency, advocacy, customer retention...aka how to stay in business.
Interesting, can you share where was that? From one of the biggest Trek dealers in the south of France I had opposite feedback two months ago, 20% disc brakes for road bikes

User avatar
wheelbuilder
Posts: 616
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:10 am

by wheelbuilder

Tobin is stating an accurate message from Trek in Northern California at least. We were given the same one. I ride rim braked non-Trek btw. Just passing along a message.

spdntrxi
Posts: 2658
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2013 6:11 pm

by spdntrxi

NorCal is one area where discs can be an advantage...so I'm not surprised.

TobinHatesYou
Posts: 3331
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:02 pm

by TobinHatesYou

C36 wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:07 am

Interesting, can you share where was that? From one of the biggest Trek dealers in the south of France I had opposite feedback two months ago, 20% disc brakes for road bikes

Trek is certainly making the appeal to their global retailers as well. This is simply the guidance Trek's retail partners have been given via correspondance and annual expos like Trek World.

The sales figures have been echoed by SRAM, FSA/Vision, etc. In 2017, 87% of SRAM's OE road brake sales were disc. Vision thinks 80-90% of new performance road bikes sold in 2019 will be disc, and pretty much 100% in 2020.

Will you still be able to special order select rim brake frames? Yes, that puts you in a very small niche market.

neeb
Posts: 529
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 8:19 pm

by neeb

TobinHatesYou wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:42 am
Trek is certainly making the appeal to their global retailers as well. This is simply the guidance Trek's retail partners have been given via correspondance and annual expos like Trek World.
This is interesting and very significant. It basically probably explains why in many parts of the world (not Northern California) there is a perception that the manufacturers are forcing discs on the market against demand. The problem would appear to be average global trends being used to dictate a centralised marketing strategy that is then applied to a highly regionally diverse market.

This is pretty idiotic - as well as whipping up anti big-brand sentiment in “non-disc” countries and regions it will simply lead people in these areas to shop elsewhere. Doubtless Chinese and Taiwanese companies will eventually step in to market directly to these areas if the big brands refuse to cater to local markets. Sounds like classic old-fashioned monolithic thinking / lack of flexibility of the type that has toppled giants in the past in other industries.

<edit> This interacts potentially catastrophicly with the perception that big brands are ripping us off with annually increasing huge markups on the stuff that comes out of the Far Eastern factories that basically just finances marketing and very little in the way of decent R&D. As the Chinese get better at quality control assurance and branding they will increasingly be able to exploit the cynicism that people increasingly feel towards the big brands, which they seem hell-bent on encouraging...

TobinHatesYou
Posts: 3331
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:02 pm

by TobinHatesYou

The data has been collected. Disc is in. Rim is out. And as I pointed out, it's not just Trek. Every bike industry insider knows disc has all but taken over in 2018. Anyone suggesting otherwise is in denial.

Citing the previous example, if disc isn't huge in the south of France, it will be soon. The year-over-year growth for SRAM was something like 23% -> 47% -> 87%. That region will most likely follow that same supra-linear trajectory. So by 2020, even random French boutiques will be selling disc bikes almost exclusively and only weight weenies community members will really be complaining.

neeb
Posts: 529
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 8:19 pm

by neeb

TobinHatesYou wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:11 pm
Citing the previous example, if disc isn't huge in the south of France, it will be soon. The year-over-year growth for SRAM was something like 23% -> 47% -> 87%. That region will most likely follow that same supra-linear trajectory. So by 2020, even random French boutiques will be selling disc bikes almost exclusively and only weight weenies community members will really be complaining.
You're wrong. If that's what the industry thinks they are making a huge mistake. They are massively underestimating local/national cultural factors and the differing susceptability of different demographics to marketing B.S.

Even if the linear trajectory continues in all areas until the market is saturated with discs, there's likely to be a backlash against it a few years down the line. It's interesting (having monitored the disc debate from the beginning) that we already seem to be past "peak disc" as far as online opinion from enthusiasts goes. Initially the disc fans were in a minority, then it seemed that the argument in favor of discs had been won (if you just looked at the volume of comments). But now we are seeing the balance shift back again, seemingly as a result of many people who bought into discs realising that they are not all that they were cracked up to be for most of the riding that they do.

Jugi
Posts: 421
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:10 am

by Jugi

Lewn777 wrote: ↑
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:44 pm
Yes but can pros actually use disk bikes effectively? The problem is that it means at least for now all those neutral service vehicles in pro tours will be come redundant. If you take a random disk wheel it won't fit on your disk brake bike properly. This is because the disk postition is different on different wheels meaning a wheel from neutral service 1. might not fit at all or 2. Will rub hideously or 3. Will rub a bit.
I think that is the sticking point at the moment. If need be, there can be rules put into place for brake disc sizes and axle standards. Standardizing the disc position to a fraction of a millimeter seems to be harder to achieve. Making the brake pistons self-centering via a couple of squeezes on the lever would be a huge technical leap. It that happens, the pro riders (and their mechanics) won’t have much to complain anymore. After that, the high-end rim braking road bike would become antique.

User avatar
Lewn777
Posts: 698
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:35 am

by Lewn777

Jugi wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:22 pm
Lewn777 wrote: ↑
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:44 pm
Yes but can pros actually use disk bikes effectively? The problem is that it means at least for now all those neutral service vehicles in pro tours will be come redundant. If you take a random disk wheel it won't fit on your disk brake bike properly. This is because the disk postition is different on different wheels meaning a wheel from neutral service 1. might not fit at all or 2. Will rub hideously or 3. Will rub a bit.
I think that is the sticking point at the moment. If need be, there can be rules put into place for brake disc sizes and axle standards. Standardizing the disc position to a fraction of a millimeter seems to be harder to achieve. Making the brake pistons self-centering via a couple of squeezes on the lever would be a huge technical leap. It that happens, the pro riders (and their mechanics) won’t have much to complain anymore. After that, the high-end rim braking road bike would become antique.
IMHO the manufacturers don't really want universal standards. Some want the ability to put a 12, 13 or 14 cog cassette on the bike and kill off the front derailleur too. They'll do this and respace the rear axle as they've done on mountain bikes, boost and boost plus, maybe a 110mm front axle. Some like Giant and Trek or another pair like Mavic and someone else will do it suddenly to confuse the market and out-pace their competitors.

I hope the UCI can enforce standards in not just disk brakes but in road tubeless but I think this is probably outside their power.

TobinHatesYou
Posts: 3331
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:02 pm

by TobinHatesYou

neeb wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:17 pm
TobinHatesYou wrote: ↑
Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:11 pm
Citing the previous example, if disc isn't huge in the south of France, it will be soon. The year-over-year growth for SRAM was something like 23% -> 47% -> 87%. That region will most likely follow that same supra-linear trajectory. So by 2020, even random French boutiques will be selling disc bikes almost exclusively and only weight weenies community members will really be complaining.
You're wrong. If that's what the industry thinks they are making a huge mistake. They are massively underestimating local/national cultural factors and the differing susceptability of different demographics to marketing B.S.

Even if the linear trajectory continues in all areas until the market is saturated with discs, there's likely to be a backlash against it a few years down the line. It's interesting (having monitored the disc debate from the beginning) that we already seem to be past "peak disc" as far as online opinion from enthusiasts goes. Initially the disc fans were in a minority, then it seemed that the argument in favor of discs had been won (if you just looked at the volume of comments). But now we are seeing the balance shift back again, seemingly as a result of many people who bought into discs realising that they are not all that they were cracked up to be for most of the riding that they do.

Come on, you can’t honestly believe there is any turning back. This is your misplaced heart talking, not your head. Please cite any example at all of “the balance shifting back.” Show me any data suggesting rim-brake sales are increasing.

by Weenie


Locked
  • Similar Topics
    Replies
    Views
    Last post