Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

[zefs]

Again, if manufacturers stop making them how are they going to sell? Giving buyers no choice would obviously make discs dominate.
Did they stop selling before discs came around? no, they stop selling now because manufacturers are pushing disc brakes and wider wheels/tires as a combination to make everyone's wallet lighter since they would have to buy all new gear. Is it a better tech overall? yes, but not everyone needs them.

[TobinHatesYou]

Again, if manufacturers stop making them how are they going to sell? Giving buyers no choice would obviously make discs dominate.
Did they stop selling before discs came around? no, they stop selling now because manufacturers are pushing disc brakes and wider wheels/tires as a combination to make everyone's wallet lighter since they would have to buy all new gear. Is it a better tech overall? yes, but not everyone needs them.

Oh boy, you sure hit the nail on the head. Rim-brake bikes didn’t stop selling before disc-brake bikes came around. Really, who would have thought? If that’s the pedestal you’re going to stand on, I suggest finding something a bit more solid.

We’ve gone from one option to two. In roughly 3 years, discs have almost completely taken over despite consumers having the choice. Whether you believe this exodus was driven by marketing or not is irrelevant. It’s happened and there is no turning back.

[neeb]

Citing the previous example, if disc isn't huge in the south of France, it will be soon. The year-over-year growth for SRAM was something like 23% -> 47% -> 87%. That region will most likely follow that same supra-linear trajectory. So by 2020, even random French boutiques will be selling disc bikes almost exclusively and only weight weenies community members will really be complaining.

You're wrong. If that's what the industry thinks they are making a huge mistake. They are massively underestimating local/national cultural factors and the differing susceptability of different demographics to marketing B.S.

Even if the linear trajectory continues in all areas until the market is saturated with discs, there's likely to be a backlash against it a few years down the line. It's interesting (having monitored the disc debate from the beginning) that we already seem to be past "peak disc" as far as online opinion from enthusiasts goes. Initially the disc fans were in a minority, then it seemed that the argument in favor of discs had been won (if you just looked at the volume of comments). But now we are seeing the balance shift back again, seemingly as a result of many people who bought into discs realising that they are not all that they were cracked up to be for most of the riding that they do.

Come on, you can’t honestly believe there is any turning back. This is your misplaced heart talking, not your head. Please cite any example at all of “the balance shifting back.” Show me any data suggesting rim-brake sales are increasing.

I was talking about my subjective impression of online opinion, not current sales of rim brakes. It's pretty obvious that disc brake sales are going to be increasing year on year right now because it's only very recently that they have been available on high-end road bikes and there is a lot of marketing behind them. That's not going to be a good predictor of what the final equilibrium is going to be once things settle down.

At the end of the day people aren't going to buy stuff (or keep buying stuff) that isn't optimal for its intended purpose. The balance will shift back either in the short or long term depending on the extent to which the momentum of the marketing outpaces the rebound. The harder the market pushes, the bigger the rebound will be.

The comparisons with adoption of previous technology are not helpful. Hardly anyone wants to go back to having to move their hands from the bars to the downtube evey time they want to change gear. Plenty of people whose riding (terrain, climate, traffic) means that disc brakes offer effectively zero practical advantages are going to want to go back to the lighter, simpler, cheaper alternative that rim brakes offer. And plenty others are never going to switch in the first place.

[Monkeyfudger]

The current crop of aero road bikes would certainly suggest the Industry has decided 2018/19 will have a huge push toward discs, likely to see if “they” can push everyone into a new platform, thing is a lot of the guys I ride and race with are dead set against discs and hate the fact the bike industry is pushing ‘em so hard. Round here it still seems to be mostly newbs that are buying disc brake road bikes still, people that have ridden for a while just aren’t buying anything as they’re waiting to see what happens/pissed off.

Me, I just don’t want ‘em on my road race bike as they’re a *f##k* on, I can’t bare the thought of getting my bike out of the car at a race and finding an inconsistent lever pull or rubbing pads. I can deal with that on a CX/MTB because the advantages are clear, they’re just not there on a normal road bike as you’re just not on the brakes that often.

It’ll be interesting to see if there’s a pushback when people realise their new hydraulic super bike needs twice the tinkering to stop the pads rubbing or they can’t put it upside down/on its side in the car without losing the bite point they had last time out, or worse, you accidentally pull the bloody lever and squeeze the pads right together!! (Things I’ve experienced on various MTB’s, interestingly SRAM are the worst for this IME) Also seen master cylinders get a bit squirty when pistons are forced back, no one wants that shit on their bar tape before a race

I argued the pros of ‘em for years TBF as choice is never bad, still got a disc winter bike (with a dynamo as well!) but as was the case when 26ers were killed off, we maybe won’t be left with a choice in the end.

[Karvalo]

Oh boy, you sure hit the nail on the head. Rim-brake bikes didn’t stop selling before disc-brake bikes came around. Really, who would have thought? If that’s the pedestal you’re going to stand on, I suggest finding something a bit more solid.

We’ve gone from one option to two. In roughly 3 years, discs have almost completely taken over despite consumers having the choice. Whether you believe this exodus was driven by marketing or not is irrelevant. It’s happened and there is no turning back.

This is true, from what I've seen the demand has changed. These companies aren't stupid. If most of the industry was trying to push discs onto the buying public, there would be at least one big manufacturer seeing the gap in the market and making/selling rim bikes like crazy. They're not doing it though, because they don't want to be stuck with the inventory.

2 years ago my shop was able to buy around 200 of a mid level disc bike on great closeout. Last year we had about 100 of a disc model from a different manufacturer. This year we had 3 different companies begging us to take between 100 and 200 rim brake bikes each off their hands, and no-one with excess disc stock. We even got 40 top level rim builds of one of last seasons big new GC bikes on closeout, when the mirror image disc version had been sold out for months.

It's not an industry conspiracy that leads to all these bikes gathering dust in a warehouse.

[C36]

Come on, you can’t honestly believe there is any turning back. This is your misplaced heart talking, not your head. Please cite any example at all of “the balance shifting back.” Show me any data suggesting rim-brake sales are increasing.

Tobin, not sure where you’re from, but living on 3 continents I see that not all the markets are the same. On my previous example ( not very representative since we talk about only one shop even if a big one), they sold less disc in may-June-July (the 3 months before we had this talk) than during the first part of the year or 2017 (despite growth year on year).

On another hand, spend a lot of my time in Houston and we have 70% of disc brakes when we ride around a pancake and it never rains. Absolutely nobody in our group Has a good reason to have disc brakes literally. But (and it’s not disrespectful) their cycling culture is very very limited compared to what I see in old Europe and Colombia (all countries where I ride... ) and where disc brakes are the very minority yet.
Discussing with marketing friends, the US market works very differently than a lot of other countries where the buying process is super quick “with a lot less questions asked”.





Envoyé de mon iPhone en utilisant Tapatalk

[zefs]

Again, if manufacturers stop making them how are they going to sell? Giving buyers no choice would obviously make discs dominate.
Did they stop selling before discs came around? no, they stop selling now because manufacturers are pushing disc brakes and wider wheels/tires as a combination to make everyone's wallet lighter since they would have to buy all new gear. Is it a better tech overall? yes, but not everyone needs them.

Whether you believe this exodus was driven by marketing or not is irrelevant. It’s happened and there is no turning back.

Then what are we discussing here? so everyone should put their rim bikes and sets of wheels for sale and go buy disc bikes?
I am not against discs as a technology, but against people making fake claims and marketing tricks to make a sale and it's amazing how many people fall for it. But you know marketing works when there are people saying wider rims are more aero because you put a wider tire on...

Also if you want a better point, check the disc brake bike prices. The top range are more expensive than rim equivalent but the low-mid range ones are discounted all the time.

[TobinHatesYou]

Then what are we discussing here? so everyone should put their rim bikes and sets of wheels for sale and go buy disc bikes?
I am not against discs as a technology, but against people making fake claims and marketing tricks to make a sale and it's amazing how many people fall for it. But you know marketing works when there are people saying wider rims are more aero because you put a wider tire on...

Also if you want a better point, check the disc brake bike prices. The top range are more expensive than rim equivalent but the low-mid range ones are discounted all the time.

That’s pretty much exactly what I’m suggesting. In the near future it will become quite stupid to buy a rim-brake road bike...IMO it’s already a little stupid to do so now. Would you buy a 26” MTB today? A v-brake MTB? Nope, they simply aren’t available except even if for some reason you wanted dead-end technology.

At some point you will begrudgingly N+1 a disc road training bike, gravel bike or CX bike because either new groups or mainstream frames won’t come with the option. Then you’ll have to seriously consider consolidating around the technology or living with the problem of not being able to share wheelsets between your fleet.

[neeb]

Then what are we discussing here? so everyone should put their rim bikes and sets of wheels for sale and go buy disc bikes?
I am not against discs as a technology, but against people making fake claims and marketing tricks to make a sale and it's amazing how many people fall for it. But you know marketing works when there are people saying wider rims are more aero because you put a wider tire on...

Also if you want a better point, check the disc brake bike prices. The top range are more expensive than rim equivalent but the low-mid range ones are discounted all the time.

That’s pretty much exactly what I’m suggesting. In the near future it will become quite stupid to buy a rim-brake road bike...IMO it’s already a little stupid to do so now. Would you buy a 26” MTB today? A v-brake MTB? Nope, they simply aren’t available except even if for some reason you wanted dead-end technology.

At some point you will begrudgingly N+1 a disc road training bike, gravel bike or CX bike because either new groups or mainstream frames won’t come with the option. Then you’ll have to seriously consider consolidating around the technology or living with the problem of not being able to share wheelsets between your fleet.

Not going to happen. Not least because what you are basically saying is "the industry wants you to buy this stuff whether 1) you like it or not, 2) whether it's the best option for you, and there's nothing you can do about it". We've been there before with stuff like press-fit BBs (actually a good analogy), and this time an awful lot of people just aren't going to take that crap.

[TobinHatesYou]

So would you suggest a fan of 26” MTB with v-brakes buy such a bike today?

[Mep]

I'd actually suggest a fan of rim brake bikes look to snag one now/in the near future at a deep discount. There's a window of time between when the existing stock gets liquidated and when there becomes a shortage or corresponding price hike for "boutique" products.

[TobinHatesYou]

I'd actually suggest a fan of rim brake bikes look to snag one now/in the near future at a deep discount. There's a window of time between when the existing stock gets liquidated and when there becomes a shortage or corresponding price hike for "boutique" products.

There won’t be a price-hike on anything that has already been deeply discounted, at least not a meaningful one. That’s generally not how retail works. A non-limited edition Specialissima is never going to be priced higher than it is now unless in the unlikely event it becomes a collector’s item decades from now. Too many of them were made. Everything from Specialized, Trek, Cannondale, etc. will continue to depreciate rapidly.

Frames like the Cervelo RCA are not the norm. Those were always intended to be extremely limited and coveted.

[ome rodriguez]

There will still be rim brake bikes unless the pros stop using them.

[neeb]

So would you suggest a fan of 26” MTB with v-brakes buy such a bike today?

He/she probably still has the one he got in 2005 or whatever is is perfectly happy with it. If he needs to replace it I'm sure he could do so very cheaply on ebay.

I'm lucky to have two and a half very nice bikes (and one less nice bike) that are all superior to anything that's likely to be marketed in the next few years - they're as stiff, lighter than anythng you can get for less than £10K these days and ride brilliantly. One is a 6kg climbing bike built on a state-of-the-art current frameset. The half is a first generation Scott Foil Team Edition which I'm currently in the process of building up again with 11sp Record EPS after having had the frame sitting around for a while. I've realised that actually, despite being a seven year old design there hasn't really been much progress in road bike frame tech (or aesthetics for that matter) since then and I really miss riding that bike. OK, maybe the current best aero frames save 3 or 4 watts but that's it really, and they're not as stiff due to the shift towards catering for those with "comfort" issues. So I may as well resurrect the Foil and keep using it. If the market continues to go the way it's going I can't see that changing as far as my needs are concerned.

I used to spend a l lot of money on bikes but that has reduced significantly in the last few years, due to a combination of new tech not addressing my needs and uncertainty about future standards. If the industry starts only making stuff I don't want at the high end it will be good for my wallet and I'll still have bikes that are superior to the supposed state-of-the-art in everything but marketing.

[Lewn777]

Citing the previous example, if disc isn't huge in the south of France, it will be soon. The year-over-year growth for SRAM was something like 23% -> 47% -> 87%. That region will most likely follow that same supra-linear trajectory. So by 2020, even random French boutiques will be selling disc bikes almost exclusively and only weight weenies community members will really be complaining.

You're wrong. If that's what the industry thinks they are making a huge mistake. They are massively underestimating local/national cultural factors and the differing susceptability of different demographics to marketing B.S.

Even if the linear trajectory continues in all areas until the market is saturated with discs, there's likely to be a backlash against it a few years down the line. It's interesting (having monitored the disc debate from the beginning) that we already seem to be past "peak disc" as far as online opinion from enthusiasts goes. Initially the disc fans were in a minority, then it seemed that the argument in favor of discs had been won (if you just looked at the volume of comments). But now we are seeing the balance shift back again, seemingly as a result of many people who bought into discs realising that they are not all that they were cracked up to be for most of the riding that they do.

Come on, you can’t honestly believe there is any turning back. This is your misplaced heart talking, not your head. Please cite any example at all of “the balance shifting back.” Show me any data suggesting rim-brake sales are increasing.

Tobin the mistake you're making is thinking that the USA or 'Anglo' world applies to all. Wait and see how stubborn Italian and French can be.

My view:
Senario 1
Big Taiwanese manufactrers and theiir bed buddies will continue to push disks over the next two years, and phase out rim brakes, but a big side player for example a Canyon or Cannondale leave a rim brake climbing bike in their line-up. They get considerable sales so the other manufacturers leave the rim frameset option indefinately, and rim brakes in the form of direct mount find their way back o to the sales floor on some climbing models.

Senario 2
Disks are phased out by all the big players, but this leaves a massive gap in the market filled up happily by Italian and French manufacurers. Sure, Specialized, Trek, Giant, Merida, Canyon and Cannondale are all on disks, but Cofidis and FDJ to name a few stay rim at least on their climbing bike.