Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

[TobinHatesYou]

Details like zero aerodynamic development and some of the worst crosswind stability in the category. But hey they are reasonably light compared to older carbon wheels.

[ome rodriguez]

I’ll believe when all manufacturers totally stop making rimbrakes.

[robertbb]

Details like zero aerodynamic development and some of the worst crosswind stability in the category. But hey they are reasonably light compared to older carbon wheels.

Not a fan, huh?

(Don't blame you)

[TobinHatesYou]

I’ll believe when all manufacturers totally stop making rimbrakes.

This is a weird straw man. Nobody is stating all manufacturers will completely stop making rim-brake offerings within any near timeframe. What we are saying is that no manufacturers are going to reverse course (per original topic) and that the popularity of rim-brakes will continue to approach a lower threshold where it doesn’t make much sense to mass produce those frames or components.

[Beaver]

As in many areas, money will decide what direction will be chosen.

The road bike market is not running very well, the manufacturers seem to concentrate on the "alpha customers", who are willing to spend really high sums, that the "ordinary" customers can't justify anymore. And those alphas always want the "newest s***", the easier it can be seen on first glance, the better. If they have a new bike, they already think about the next. They want to believe in marketing.

So, I don't see a return to rim brakes, but also not its death. Shimano has proclaimed to continue rim brake development, most bike manufacturers still do, if Specialized doesn't want to (although it is said that most Tarmac SL6 sold are for rim brakes), so what.

Are 8+kg Ultegra bikes really the future? https://www.roadbike.de/test/rennrad/te ... 1308.9.htm

[rollinslow]

I'm completely open to any type of new technology. However, disc technology solves a problem I never had and I am sure many others feel the same. The first time I road an S-works tarmac with Di2 and discs all I could think of was how it was heavier than my Cervelo S1 and the brakes went click click click with every rotation. This was not my idea of a 10k bike but maybe for some it is. Rather than adjusting the calipers and trying to fix these issues, the rim bike is a 2 second adjustment and off you go. I am one of those who will spend for the best technology to have some fun on my off time, but I won't spend just because the pro peloton rides what they are forced to ride.

Btw, I do agree that the decision for discs to take over the generic carbon market is already done. This was the case years ago when they realized the potential for profit.

[wolfesquire]

As someone who does not live near any mountains and if I did would not go bombing downhill, I do not see a use of disc brakes. The local route "might" have 100m of elevation to it over 50 miles and I find it comical locals trying to justify the reason they bought it was due to better braking performance in wet weather. Yeah...sure Fred, you are going to ride your $10k bike in the rain......

[spdntrxi]

you are going to ride your $10k bike in the rain......

no all disc bikes are $10K.... but I would and do.


and we are starting to get a little off-topic

[TobinHatesYou]

you are going to ride your $10k bike in the rain......

no all disc bikes are $10K.... but I would and do.


and we are starting to get a little off-topic

Same, at most a few consumable parts like ball bearings and brake pads will wear slightly faster after many rain rides. It’s not like my rims will have their carbon brake tracks abraded away by grit.

[TheRich]

I asked Cervelo of why they only developed S5 as disc only. At the same time, i asked if it was due to cost to develop this model in two platforms.
Yes, cost was a significant factor. I guess it's cost vs sales volumes. My guess is that many manufacturers skip rim brake version due to cost.
They just follow market trend. It's clearly disc brake on the radar. I don't necessary believe manufacturers feel that this is really what they want.
It's simply cost and perhaps it also helps people not to be confused over decision. My guess is that the mass follow market trend.

They're following the sales trend, not marketing. For whatever reason people want disk brakes, they want them, and if the manufacturers don't make them, consumers will buy from someone else.

The cost and risk they want to avoid is the cost of a separate frame and fork and then estimating the sales to scale production for each.

[neeb]

Marketing people are pretty stupid. You don't go into marketing because it's interesting or intellectually challenging (which is a shame, because I think it could be interesting and challenging if marketing people were a bit more imaginative - Catch 22). My impression is that the big manufacturers have made a complete cock-up with the whole disc brake thing in the past few years. Some of them haven't realised it yet, some have at some level but are in denial, and a few have realised it but won't admit it.

The statistic you keep hearing is that sales of disc brake bikes as a proportion of total sales continue to rise and those of rim brake bikes continue to fall. But as far as I can gather, bike sales in general (e-bikes excepted) are not doing well at all.

Of course if you are almost entirely pushing disc brake bikes at the expense of rim brake models then sales of these are going to rise proportionately. But how many people are simply not buying new bikes because 1) they are not interested in disc brakes, and 2) the focus on discs and other gimmicky tech over the last 5 years has meant that there has been almost no advances at all in any genuinely useful technology? Why buy a new bike at a price that has been inflated by 50% in the last few years if it's actually no better than what you already have in any meaningful way?

Because marketing people are stupid they arrogantly assume that the customer base is stupid too and that most people don't think much about what they actually need to optimally satisfy their requirements. Of course you will get a subset of people who will always buy the newest and most expensive tech whatever it is, but the rest of the customer base who have simply stopped buying stuff are effectively invisible in the sales stats., unless you are doing some pretty thorough market research. I hang around bike websites and cycling media an awful lot and no-one has ever asked me for marketing research purposes about my buying trends over time or my preferences for different bike technologies .

Rim brakes will persist and doubtless in time become more prevalent in the development of new bikes for the simple reason that they are the best solution for riding fast on tarmac 95% of the time. There is a limit to the length of time you can keep persuading people to pay more for something that is less suitable for their needs. Discs are not clipless pedals or STIs - these technologies offered very significant practical advantages that massively outweighted their disadvantages. Discs might do that for MTBs or even bikes for commuting / urban transport but they don't for recreational / competitive road riding.

[TobinHatesYou]

Another straw man. What are these real improvements that will make rim-brake bike owners upgrade? Weight savings? I can assure you most people don’t care. Cheaper bikes? This is already happening. There is nothing wrong with a $1000 Tiagra 4700 bike. It’s as good as bikes costing 3x as much from 10 years ago.

In the US, sales volume has hit a plateau after peaking in 2013. This is more due to a combination of external factors than bike industry marketing. There are more cars than ever. Rideshares exist. Bikeshare exists. The need to leave the house has diminished. The patterns of our daily lives have changed. 2/3rds of our population is overweight and half of those are considered obese.

[TheRich]

The statistic you keep hearing is that sales of disc brake bikes as a proportion of total sales continue to rise and those of rim brake bikes continue to fall. But as far as I can gather, bike sales in general (e-bikes excepted) are not doing well at all.

Where are you trying to go here?

What that says to me is that cycling is a time consuming sport, hence the growth in ebikes because they allow those with less time to ride regularly the ability to ride further and faster. To a lesser degree, it's a very expensive sport, and normal bikes sales reflect that and my first point.

If people want rim brakes, they need to buy rim brake bikes, not expect everyone else to support a market segment while they sit on the sidelines.

[TobinHatesYou]

Rim-brake fans, don’t delay. Go out and buy a new rim-brake bike today.

You can reverse this trend. Money talks. I believe in you.

[romanmoser]

As much as I hate to admit it , I don't see the market going backward .

I was an early adopter on disc brakes ( thru axles except the *f##k* 15mm axle in front instead of the '' road '' standard 12mm ) , aero ( not that I care at the time ) and clearance for 30mm tires measured. Velocite SYN prototype.
It's still is not perfect has everything , they are potential advantages and potential disadvatanges.
I have leaking calipers and went from 140/140 to 160/140 ( even at 65 to 70kg others than in Belgium it wasn't enough and I manage to warp the front rotor.

I will probably end up with an other road bike on the side using on the trainer mostly but able to go outside when it's dry and good weather here in Belgium.
Something like a very good classic carbon frameset or titanium one or modern alloy ( izalco max cheap 800e that short of things , litespeed T2 T1SL found one of my size going on for 1600 USD second hand) , build with all components I want second hand or sales and a nice set of carbon tubular wheels. It may not more faster or more efficient but It will be different in ride. Not everything has to be rational I guess.

For me disc brakes If you have a racing or gran fondo sportive practice should be quite high hend , with carbon wheels and not average one , otherwhise you'll regret it.
Be carefull with the depth also of carbon rims, I've read all about rolling resistance etc from various experts and nothing scientifical too here but I can send power so good especially in climb with as high clincher carbon rims than tubular ones...
If you ride at tempo , use it for commuter that sort of things you may not care.