Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

[neeb]

It's not a threat though. It's already happening. I would bet money on the Tarmac SL7 being disc-only. Endurance bikes like the Giant Defy, Cannondale Synapse and Specialized Roubaix do not come in rim-brake guise. The Domane does, but the next update won't.

Then once 90% of people have a disc bike the SL8 wil be rim only to cater for the newly introduced 6kg weight limit and we'll be sold the bikes we have now, except far enough down the line that we'll believe that they're different..

And from a cost of production standpoint, you can appreciate how many added costs have to be incurred by the manufacturers if they have to produce two frames essentially the same except one has discs and the other doesn’t.

Not if each model is either disc or rim specific. The aero bikes only come with discs, the climbers only with rim. I bet we see that eventually.

If not, it will be a massive boon for the handmade / artisan market at least, as that's where you'll go for your rim brake Ti or custom carbon bike.

But I just can't see all of the pro peloton on discs. For a start, amateurs would still be on rim brakes unless they banned them. That would be too weird, people having to shift to disc brakes when they went from 1st cat to pro.

[TobinHatesYou]

No, you are going to see all performance road bikes consolidate around disc. Real people, not the weight weenies minority, are not as ideologically invested in rim brakes. The industry definitely isn’t. Climbing bikes, endurance bikes, aero bikes, TT bikes, they’re all going to be exclusively disc in the next few years. This is for the sake of simplicity and practicality. The more cross compatible your components are between your cx/gravel bike, aero bike and climbing bike, the better.

[glam2deaf]

This has to be the stupidest thread in a long time.... Look how booming the custom rim braked mtb market is

Tobin is right, discs are here to stay. No manufacturer will want make another range of sizes to satisfy a minority who won't buy disc, and shops are even less likely to want to invest in the floor space for both.

Progress is inevitable, it's not a marketing gimmic. The technology is better and will just keep improving. I would be amazed if the uci bothered to drop the weight limit, what is the point?

[alcatraz]

I have a feeling rim brakes will still be used in pro racing because of what Lewn777 wrote. The ability to swap punctured wheels easier, crosscompatibility between wheelsets and caliper setups. Possibly also for being a simple and easy to use system as someone else wrote.

The pros still ride tubulars for the odd chance they need to ride on a flat, don't they?

Talk about being in love with odd advantages us mortals don't think about much.

So my next question is then. What frames are those pros going to ride then? I don't think it's going to be some limited production german weightweenie frame.

[spdntrxi]

No, you are going to see all performance road bikes consolidate around disc. Real people, not the weight weenies minority, are not as ideologically invested in rim brakes. The industry definitely isn’t. Climbing bikes, endurance bikes, aero bikes, TT bikes, they’re all going to be exclusively disc in the next few years. This is for the sake of simplicity and practicality. The more cross compatible your components are between your cx/gravel bike, aero bike and climbing bike, the better.

yep.. all my wheels will be interchangable... except for possibly that one off 650b wide wheelset I might have for the big gravel days...and I'm still internally debating if I even need that.

[neeb]

No, you are going to see all performance road bikes consolidate around disc. Real people, not the weight weenies minority, are not as ideologically invested in rim brakes. The industry definitely isn’t. Climbing bikes, endurance bikes, aero bikes, TT bikes, they’re all going to be exclusively disc in the next few years. This is for the sake of simplicity and practicality. The more cross compatible your components are between your cx/gravel bike, aero bike and climbing bike, the better.

B*llox. Real people don't need to be "ideologically invested" in rim brakes to figure out that discs are far more hassle than they're worth and make performance road bikes less fun to ride. Real people ride bikes, maintain bikes, compare bikes. If there's an ideology here it's coming from the industry, in the face of the practial reality that discs are daft on most performance road bikes. What you are talking about is reverse evolution, and that just doesn't happen - not for any length of time at least.

Real people are different in different places - the market for high-end road bikes in Europe is a group of people who are largely very well informed about bikes, bike tech and cycling culture. The "minority" is the majority. Not for £1000 entry-level road bikes but certainly for £5000 performance bikes.

[neeb]

This has to be the stupidest thread in a long time.... Look how booming the custom rim braked mtb market is

Did you really just say that without any intended irony? That's as if I'd suggested that wellington boots wouldn't take over in marathon running and you said "look how booming the custom trainer market for farmers is".

[RyanH]

If the entire pro peloton did switch to disc tomorrow? What challenges would they have with wheel swaps and what would they do to overcome those challenges?

Namely thinking about disc alignment. Are they going to have to wait for the team car to do a full bike swap every time they puncture or is there a solution to this issue?

Also, not that I'm a proponent of disc, but pointing to the peloton and saying they aren't doing it as a reason against disc is probably a bit off the mark. I almost guarantee the primary reason rim is chosen over disc in nearly any given stage is due to the concern over a puncture. Period. End of story. (keep in mind, they have pro mechanics to deal with the headaches of disc, so most of those reasons against disc don't apply to them)

[glam2deaf]

This has to be the stupidest thread in a long time.... Look how booming the custom rim braked mtb market is

Did you really just say that without any intended irony? That's as if I'd suggested that wellington boots wouldn't take over in marathon running and you said "look how booming the custom trainer market for farmers is".

For a change zero irony, but then I wan't suggesting a boom for the custom frame market for people who really have to have rim brakes. I just can't see the desire in 5 years time, for anything other than disc brake. Maybe building something 'period correct' but that would be it. This is just my personal thoughs here considering I look at all these new 2019 bikes with rim braks and just think meh...

[jlok]

If the entire pro peloton did switch to disc tomorrow? What challenges would they have with wheel swaps and what would they do to overcome those challenges?

Namely thinking about disc alignment. Are they going to have to wait for the team car to do a full bike swap every time they puncture or is there a solution to this issue?

Also, not that I'm a proponent of disc, but pointing to the peloton and saying they aren't doing it as a reason against disc is probably a bit off the mark. I almost guarantee the primary reason rim is chosen over disc in nearly any given stage is due to the concern over a puncture. Period. End of story. (keep in mind, they have pro mechanics to deal with the headaches of disc, so most of those reasons against disc don't apply to them)

wheel swap is a real issue in pro with disc brake and neutral service. Within the same team the mechanic can align the rotor no problem.

Also, if Speedrelease is the future, then the current crop of aero db bikes maybe one gen behind, or they were designed two years ago and only stopped by marketing dept at the gate. Systemsix and the upcoming 795 Blade RS Disc have the Speedrelease.

[Calnago]

...Also, not that I'm a proponent of disc, but pointing to the peloton and saying they aren't doing it as a reason against disc is probably a bit off the mark.

I hope you don’t think that’s what I was saying or implying. Not at all. But make no mistake, the pro peloton exists for marketing purposes. Otherwise there would be no sponsors. And those sponsors want to see the pros on the stuff they’re selling. They don’t want a picture of the top three finishers on the podium always crossing the line on rim brakes if what they’re trying to sell to the public is disc brakes. That photo doesn’t make for a good website cover photo. The trouble is, and I’ll reiterate this, is that there is no discipline where the advantages of rim brakes are more clearly defineable and real than in the pro peloton. And hence the dilemma over what they want to sell to the public versus what the best technology might be at the pro level or racing. Marketing will win that battle in the end. Business, plain and simple.

[TobinHatesYou]

B*llox. Real people don't need to be "ideologically invested" in rim brakes to figure out that discs are far more hassle than they're worth and make performance road bikes less fun to ride. Real people ride bikes, maintain bikes, compare bikes. If there's an ideology here it's coming from the industry, in the face of the practial reality that discs are daft on most performance road bikes. What you are talking about is reverse evolution, and that just doesn't happen - not for any length of time at least.

Real people are different in different places - the market for high-end road bikes in Europe is a group of people who are largely very well informed about bikes, bike tech and cycling culture. The "minority" is the majority. Not for £1000 entry-level road bikes but certainly for £5000 performance bikes.

You really are off the deep end if you think there is a future in rim-brake performance bikes. They will be niche options from small outfits for the most stubborn customers like you who think "the man" (the industry) is trying to grift them.

The mainstream brands have already made the switch or at least shown their intentions. Next comes the larger European flavored brands like Bianchi, Ridley, BMC, etc. After that the boutique Italians like Pinarello and Colnago. And then finally the Times and Looks will be the last of the non-custom marques to make the wholesale switchover.

I'm not saying this as a disc-brake proponent. I'm simply telling you what will happen and when. You don't have to believe it, but you probably should.

[spdntrxi]

If the entire pro peloton did switch to disc tomorrow? What challenges would they have with wheel swaps and what would they do to overcome those challenges?

Namely thinking about disc alignment. Are they going to have to wait for the team car to do a full bike swap every time they puncture or is there a solution to this issue?

Also, not that I'm a proponent of disc, but pointing to the peloton and saying they aren't doing it as a reason against disc is probably a bit off the mark. I almost guarantee the primary reason rim is chosen over disc in nearly any given stage is due to the concern over a puncture. Period. End of story. (keep in mind, they have pro mechanics to deal with the headaches of disc, so most of those reasons against disc don't apply to them)

wheel swap is a real issue in pro with disc brake and neutral service. Within the same team the mechanic can align the rotor no problem.

Also, if Speedrelease is the future, then the current crop of aero db bikes maybe one gen behind, or they were designed two years ago and only stopped by marketing dept at the gate. Systemsix and the upcoming 795 Blade RS Disc have the Speedrelease.

speedrelease seems nice...but I have some doubts if it will become standard..

[RyanH]

@tobin...

Look, we get it, you like disc and think they're the bees knees...yet I know a half dozen competitive riders in my area (including me) that got disc and went back to rim. Why? Because whatever perceived advantage of disc brake is outweighed by the complexity, noise and hassle of disc. At the end of the day, I (and many others) want to ride a bike that just works...and rim brakes are the essence of that. Again, to preempt the disc lovers, it's great that it works day in and day out for you but a lot of us have figured out otherwise.

So...we live in a capitalist economy, if there's enough of us that dislike disc brake and continue to buy rim brake, then manufacturers will continue to make it. Maybe not all but some will because people will buy it. (Let's not even get into all of the people in Florida that realize disc are quite possible the stupidest thing ever for them...).

[TobinHatesYou]

All I'm saying is that if every other bike in a catalog is disc based, a large-scale brand is not going to acquiesce to the demands of a few. Those who only lean in favor of rim-brakes are will just adopt disc because that's where the market is headed. You gotta admit, that never-disc crowd is tiny (and shrinking) in the grand scheme and unlikely to influence the market.

So yeah, the smaller boutique brands will hold onto rim-brake bikes for years. No one doubts that, but disc is likely to make up >90% of all performance road sales by 2020. Our personal preferences don't really matter here unless you believe the percentages have been misrepresented.