Odds that we see disc brake only bikes go back to having rim offerings?

[Lewn777]

I think the dominance of disk will depend on the size of the market that are perfectly happy with rim brakes and are pretty determined to stay on rim brakes for their next bike or two.
This will depend on:
-How total the dominace of disk brake will be in the pro peloton.
-How well road disk brakes can evolve in terms of weight, standardization and pad clearance.

It seems like the people that buy Specialized, Giant, Canyon, Cervelo, Cannondale, Trek etc are more prone to prefer disk in general. I think it's what Look, Kuota, Colnago, Factor, Argon 18, BMC, Lapierre, Bianchi, Orbea, De Rosa etc do that will be most interesting, as people that buy those kind of bikes seem less likely to buy disk.

regional variations are very important. Sure, in many countries Giant, Specialized and Trek are everywhere. In other countries local manfacturers have a lot more dominant position and will follow the desires of their home market than necessarily following some trend set by a Californian marketing department.

[ome rodriguez]

Net: in all likelihood everything goes toward disc pretty quickly.

This is what i heard 4 years ago.

[TobinHatesYou]

This is what i heard 4 years ago.

And it's largely been true. Can't buy a rim Venge. Hardly anyone buys a rim Madone SLR even though it's available. If you own a CX, gravel or rain bike, why wouldn't you want to consolidate around disc brakes? I will again refer to this BikeRadar article.

If those quotes from Shimano and SRAM aren't convincing, then I don't know what is.

Lewn777, as I just mentioned, you can't avoid the transition to disc without also surrendering a lot of choice...not just in framesets, but it's starting to become wheels and tires too. Groupsets will be next. SRAM will likely abandon rim-brakes with Red/Force within one update cycle. Shimano might take a little longer, it'll depend entirely on market share trends for them.

[ome rodriguez]

That bikeradar article was a year ago.
Fast forward 2019 and shimano/sram still has rimbrake groupsets(top of the line)

[TobinHatesYou]

Yeah a year is a long time. It's like a few hundred mayfly lifecycles. Fast doesn't mean instant. Also no one is saying rim-brake options are going to vanish overnight or completely. Will the next BMC Teammachine SLR01 come with a rim-brake option? I'm not sure. My hunch is it won't. Will smaller companies like Factor or Argon 18 want to spend R&D money on rim-brake offerings dwindling in popularity? Again my hunch is they won't.

[ome rodriguez]

But this
“Rim brakes aren’t going away anytime soon,” Lawrence says. “People are still looking for the absolute lightest bike. We have never tried to push one way or the other. We build both.”

[TobinHatesYou]

But this
“Rim brakes aren’t going away anytime soon,” Lawrence says. “People are still looking for the absolute lightest bike. We have never tried to push one way or the other. We build both.”

Like I said, Shimano is going to take a little longer than SRAM. They'll let the market conditions decide for them.

[ome rodriguez]

if it will happen, disc brakes on road bikes is the longest transition since toe clip to clipless, downtube to sti, mtb v-brakes to discbrake, and etc.

[jlok]

if it will happen, disc brakes on road bikes is the longest transition since toe clip to clipless, downtube to sti, mtb v-brakes to discbrake, and etc.

That's natural as disc brake transition involves many parts on the bike, while pedals and shifters alone di not. MTB is another story as MTBers are more open to new stuffs obviously.

[ome rodriguez]

Like this one almost 5 years ago...

https://youtu.be/xdWsSB9QGkY

[wheelsONfire]

One thing in this debate, who assume rim design development, for rim brakes (brake track), has a place these days?
I kind of worry mostly that we've come to a dead end here!?

[ome rodriguez]

for sure this debate will last a long time

[wheelsONfire]

for sure this debate will last a long time

Only time i noted someone a bit estranged by this development, was when Granfondo reviewed the withdrawn (but forthcoming) Mavic CU UST.
Personally, i felt happy Mavic are in the game. I must admit that i would love to buy this wheelset. It's a wider rim, than previous CCU, it's a development in the hub design and the rims are designed around rim+tire interface. I'm a bit worried rim brake design will be "frozen" at this point. It's kind of obvious the industry is hellbent on disc brakes now.
So if i farted money (still trying to learn), i would buy several wheelsets from different brands.

[TobinHatesYou]

You have to believe that Specialized, Cannondale, BMC, Cervelo and others who have gone disc-only on aero bikes have made a tactical error then. Surely they are losing more rim-brake sales than savings in R&D, inventory, etc. if there is going to be a backlash or resurgence in rim-brake popularity.

Or if you admit that none of these manufacturers are going to flip-flop on aero bikes, then you’ll claim that rim-brakes will remain on lightweight bikes like the Emonda, Tarmac, Izalco Max, SuperSix Evo, etc. Aw crap, the Izalco Max is now disc-only. This is WW, so I’ll forgive the cognitive bias, but most people don’t care about or research the weight of a complete bike when they walk into a bike shop.

[wheelsONfire]

I asked Cervelo of why they only developed S5 as disc only. At the same time, i asked if it was due to cost to develop this model in two platforms.
Yes, cost was a significant factor. I guess it's cost vs sales volumes. My guess is that many manufacturers skip rim brake version due to cost.
They just follow market trend. It's clearly disc brake on the radar. I don't necessary believe manufacturers feel that this is really what they want.
It's simply cost and perhaps it also helps people not to be confused over decision. My guess is that the mass follow market trend.
Looking at other brands like Lightweight wheels, their clients are probably people passionate about the details, so here it suddenly make sense.