2024 Pro thread

[Karvalo]

My observation overall, team tactics and all considered, is that the race is dominated by one or two superhumans. Of course this has been going on for decades. But on today's stage for example the bulk of riders were 5-20 minutes behind. I mean, these are the top professionals in the whole sport. Even in the top 5 overall, 3rd-5th place are 5-11 minutes behind. I know there are many various explanations, but for the casual fan such a lack of competition gets boring.

I'm not sure if I heard it right, but I think Orla said in the post show that Pog and JV now (already!) have more Tour de France 1-2 stage finishes than any other pair of riders in history. Part of that is going to be the way the Tour has been raced this decade with the GC teams racing hard all day and almost never letting the break out of sight, but it does also ilustrate the level they're on compared to everyone else.

But... I don't think that's boring. We humans are simple creatures and we generally understand a rivalry much more easily than a melee. Look at tennis and the fifteen plus years of Federer, Nadal and Djoko grinding every other pretender to dust beneath their feet, and most serious or passing tennis fans would call it the undisputed golden era of the sport. If JV and Pog keep pushing each other to their limits I dont think many people (apart from other team bosses) will care how far back everyone else is trailing. If Evenepoel can keep developing to somewhere near their level so much the better (though he might always be their Andy Murray), but otherwise the 1v1 is enough.

[MichaelK]

But what stage? Today (S15) has a 20km downhill before the final HC so I can't see many fireworks happening. I think UAE will play it safe today... unless they see the weakness in VLaB.

Sure... but it's still an HC finale in a 200km stage with 4,800m of categorised climbing on the last day of week 2.

If that's not tough enough I don't know what is! If either of them is slightly off and the other one on the scope for time loss is huge.

Okay, I'll eat my hat here. What a stage! JV said he didn't have an off day and the numbers kinda prove it. Tadej was just on another level.

With the remaining stages I don't even think we'll see him take his foot off the gas either.

[maquisard]

Pogacar was just better, he is genuinely beating Vingegaard in his own terrain. This is what will make the Giro-Tour double very special if he makes it to Nice in yellow, Without Vingegaard this would be the great tedium of a Froome era boring festival and there would always have been what-if questions. Pogacar is really something that the sport has never seen before.

I should say I am a Vingegaard fan but am in awe of how Pogacar rides the race. The rivalry between the two is fantastic for the sport and I think that a defeat is good for motivating Vingegaard and VLaB to come back stronger.

The one thing I cannot warm to about Pogacar is his shit talking Tik-Tok personality. On the French TV post race highlights he said that "he would have been happy for a French person to win today on Bastille day, but Visma-LaB had other ideas..." What nonsense! Or saying that Vingegaard's prep for this Tour was no different that the problems he had last year. Again what nonsense. I try not to listen to him speak and just watch him ride.

[Nomadmax]

This Tour is shaping up perfect for me. Roglic crashed out (not a real surprise) Jonas getting spanked by Pogi while wearing Pogi's mountain jersey and Sepp Kuss at home watching on TV. Remember the 2023 Vuelta Primoz and Jonas, you should have been better team mates.

And Jonas wonders why they boo him

Here's the best part, in 20 years no one will remember that Jonas had a bad crash and an abbreviated training run up. All they'll remember is Pogi's double. I'm hoping he wins the Worlds as well.

[Requiem84]

This Tour is shaping up perfect for me. Roglic crashed out (not a real surprise) Jonas getting spanked by Pogi while wearing Pogi's mountain jersey and Sepp Kuss at home watching on TV. Remember the 2023 Vuelta Primoz and Jonas, you should have been better team mates.

And Jonas wonders why they boo him

Here's the best part, in 20 years no one will remember that Jonas had a bad crash and an abbreviated training run up. All they'll remember is Pogi's double. I'm hoping he wins the Worlds as well.

Just as nobody in 20 years time will remember Pogacar's training difficulties leading up to the TdF 2023. Big difference for me is that Pogacar probably was in his worst Tour shape ever in terms of bad days / power output, while it's pretty clear that JV this year is in his best shape ever (despite the limited training period + crash recovery). JV's power numbers up the last climbs on hard days have been the second best performances ever, after..... TP...

[maquisard]

JV this year is in his best shape ever (despite the limited training period + crash recovery). JV's power numbers up the last climbs on hard days have been the second best performances ever, after..... TP...

JV in best shape ever, yes, which is staggering giving his preparations. But also by same token, his best possible shape he could have achieved? unlikely.

This is what makes the Pogacar and Vingegaard rivalry so great for the future.

[Karvalo]

This Tour is shaping up perfect for me. Roglic crashed out (not a real surprise) Jonas getting spanked by Pogi while wearing Pogi's mountain jersey and Sepp Kuss at home watching on TV. Remember the 2023 Vuelta Primoz and Jonas, you should have been better team mates.

And Jonas wonders why they boo him

Isn't it better to support a rider because you like them, not because you hate their opponents? Bragging about revelling in schadenfreude doesn't make you sound as cool as you might think.

[Requiem84]

JV this year is in his best shape ever (despite the limited training period + crash recovery). JV's power numbers up the last climbs on hard days have been the second best performances ever, after..... TP...

JV in best shape ever, yes, which is staggering giving his preparations. But also by same token, his best possible shape he could have achieved? unlikely.

This is what makes the Pogacar and Vingegaard rivalry so great for the future.

My unproven and speculative theory is that they couldn't get JV at 100% of his maximal power output form, but instead they took quite a risky approach by tuning his diet to lose a bit of weight. In previous years he was always listed as 60kg's. All the communication about JV now is him being 58kg's. Dropping 2kg's of weight saves you about 12w at 6w/kg or even 14w at 7w/kg efforts.

The above speculation would also agree that Vinegaard seems to be a bit stronger on the really steep parts, but seems to lose out more on the flatter parts of climbs (5/6%) and the descends where you need the raw power to get back to speed out of corners. Pogacar seems to sense this pretty much, as he's rarely attacking JV on steep parts this tour.

I think VLAB is surprised JV is so consistent at this weight. Typically if you are really pushing for low fat mass you can get a bit more inconsistent (S. Yates being a prime example). The question - if all my speculation is true - is whether he can stay at such a low weight if he wants to improve power output as that may require more muscle mass. Especially for more anearobic efforts.

[EugeneC]

One thing I don't understand is, that JV apparently has a vo2max of 97, and Pogacar has 89-90. And since bodyweight is part of the vo2max calculation, how is Pogacar faster than Jonas? I'm aware that JV is coming back from a crash. But he told media, that stage 15 was by far his best performance on a bike. I'm not insinuating doping or foul play, I'm just curious to how physiology works.

[maquisard]

Also worth nothing that Pogacar has changed coach/trainer from Iñigo San Millán to Javier Sola. There have been some rumors that Pogacar was not happy with Millán. This also brings the question - is this the real potential of Pogacar we now see unleashed, versus a limited version under Millán?

[Karvalo]

One thing I don't understand is, that JV apparently has a vo2max of 97, and Pogacar has 89-90. And since bodyweight is part of the vo2max calculation, how is Pogacar faster than Jonas?

VO2 Max doesn't dictate performance. It has never been the case that the person with the highest VO2 Max will be the fastest climber.

[EugeneC]

One thing I don't understand is, that JV apparently has a vo2max of 97, and Pogacar has 89-90. And since bodyweight is part of the vo2max calculation, how is Pogacar faster than Jonas?

VO2 Max doesn't dictate performance. It has never been the case that the person with the highest VO2 Max will be the fastest climber.

You might be right. But if vo2 max doesn't dictate performance, what does it say about a rider then?

[Karvalo]

Also worth nothing that Pogacar has changed coach/trainer from Iñigo San Millán to Javier Sola. There have been some rumors that Pogacar was not happy with Millán. This also brings the question - is this the real potential of Pogacar we now see unleashed, versus a limited version under Millán?

Certainly seems so in the Grand Tour world.

Million dollar question is would Pogacar with this training plan have beaten VDP again at RVV? While this training plan could well be 'better' overall it is definitely more closely focussed on what matters in July.

[Karvalo]

You might be right. But if vo2 max doesn't dictate performance, what does it say about a rider then?

It says holy crap that guy's got massive lungs

AFAIK there can be significant difference in how efficiently a person's body uses oxygen as well as the differences in how much oxygen it can use. I'm certainly no expert, I just know that VO2 Max alone does not equal W/kg.

[Requiem84]

One thing I don't understand is, that JV apparently has a vo2max of 97, and Pogacar has 89-90. And since bodyweight is part of the vo2max calculation, how is Pogacar faster than Jonas?

VO2 Max doesn't dictate performance. It has never been the case that the person with the highest VO2 Max will be the fastest climber.

You might be right. But if vo2 max doesn't dictate performance, what does it say about a rider then?

V02 max only says something about the amount of oxygen the body can consume relative to the bodyweight of that certain person. It is limited by the following elements:

1) Pulmonary (think amount of oxygen longs can absorb and amount of C02 it can get rid off)
2) Delivery: think stroke volume of heart, but also capacity of blood to transport and deliver oxygen
3) Utilization: think mitochondrial density and efficiency (basically how much oxygen can your muscles turn into energy into the pedals).

The combination of the 3 determines 'how big your engine is'. Think of it like a car engine where we talk about 2.0liter, 6.0 liter etc. If you have a high V02 max it typically only tells us that you will be pretty good at V02 max efforts (aerobic efforts that you can maintain for a short time period).

It does not tell us everything about your threshold (FTP), because we lack other crucial information like efficiency/economy. A guy with a smaller engine might be more efficient/economic. This determines how much oxygen you need for a certain energy output. This is both mechanical (pedal stroke) but also very much metabolic (how efficient is your body converting fat/glycogen into energ).

Other elements we also don't know is how good the physiology is in lactacte shuttling (when you oxidate glycogen a by-product is lactate. This by product can be used by your mitochondria as well as it still containts energy). We also don't know how good a person is in clearing H* ions and we don't know how long this body can sustain a certain effort, nor how good the heat management of the body is etc etc.

So many factors that determine performance! . Typically you see that:

1. A high V02 max is a prerequisite for a GC rider. Basically should be anything above 80. See it as a certain size of engine that is needed. If your efficiency is the best in the world, but your V02 max is 50, the V02 max will be the ceiling of your performance.
2. At some point a higher V02 max does not predict better performance for endurance athletes. In marathon research they researched runners with same time. There were big changes between V02 max, but still same times. They also identified that runners with a lower V02 max were able to maintain a higher % of V02 max during the marathon.

If you want to predict performance in an individual you will need to look at the following 3 predictors:

1. V02max
2. Metabolic threshold (aerobic threshold and anaerobic threshold (=ftp))
3. Efficiency / economy