Geopolitics and frame manufacturing....

[Campyforever]

So since it appears very likely that China will assume control of Taiwan in the next few years, what
sort of disruptions will occur? Factor owns their own facility and what might become of that?

[Miller]

So since it appears very likely that China will assume control of Taiwan in the next few years, what
sort of disruptions will occur? Factor owns their own facility and what might become of that?

Does it?!! You make it sound like that will be simple. Have you not seen what has happened with Ukraine? If China invades Taiwan then bicycle frame supply chain will be very far down the list of worries.

[Campyforever]

Very likely... You can see it happening in slow motion....
The question you don't answer is what will happen to manufacturing?

[Mocs123]

I'm not sure how many frames are made in Tiawan vs. China nowadays, but if China invades Tiawan it will massively disrupt the bicycle supply chain since Tiawan is probably the epicenter of modern bicycle disign and manufacturing.

[Campyforever]

Agreed.... and it is not a question of "if" but rather "when"...

the companies that are using Taiwan- Carbotec, Giant and Merida
must be deeply concerned...

[Cannoli]

Good topic. Lately, I've found myself thinking about this as it appears inevitable that it will happen in the near future. While it's completely selfish that we would think about how the decimation of a society affects us as cyclists, the simple fact remains that it WILL affect the cycling industry and the hobby/profession we all love.

Does anyone know of a comprehensive list of frames (and other major components) that are made in Taiwan? I'm not sure frames made in mainland China wold be affected in any long-term way.

[Nickldn]

The world's main supply of advanced microprocessors comes from a Taiwanese company called TSMC. They are an electronics giant many have not heard of.

Not only would any conflict affect almost every industry using chips across the globe, it would also directly impact electronic groupsets.

Besides this, don't forget Western sanctions on China would mean buying frames actually made there would become impossible in the West.

Some frames are made in Vietnam now, that could be where manufacturing could shift.

[Campyforever]

After the dust settled on the take-over, I would assume that just like China makes the bulk of bikes and parts, Taiwan would be back
in business....
How long trade would be disrupted is, to me, is the essential question for all Tainese products.... chips, bikes and everything in between.

[Cemicar]

I don't know much about Taiwan (only have been there twice), but doesn't the "country" have two parties (DPP and KMT) and one of them is pro-China and most likely to win the next election in 2024 and kinda of accept a bloodless surrender? Xi definitely wants to avoid becoming another Putin and will far more peacefully acquire Taiwan just like they did for Hong Kong. So I doubt (or hope not) a taiwan invasion will ever happen.

[RDY]

It's just dick waving. It won't happen. Xi has to give some kind of 'red meat' to the ultra-nationalist factions within the upper echelons of the CCP & PLA that have seen him install himself as dictator-for-life. That red meat is pretending that there is a military option re: their 'sovereignty' - I.E. taking over TW. They don't believe it either, but a military buildup for a potential TW invasion is good cover for much more real land or sea grabs (South China Sea / Russian Far East).

It would be obscenely difficult to invade a heavily defended island across a windblown, choppy strait, with a very short season to do so, and the number of suitable landings for beacheads countable on one hand. That's to say nothing of the fact that they wouldn't be just trying to invade Taiwan, they'd be fighting Japan and other regional powers at the same time, with some level of US involvement highly likely. Losses would be catastrophic even without US involvement. This is to say nothing of the effect of economic sanctions, plus the de facto removal of trade with Taiwan, which virtually all of China's high tech industries rely on. It wouldn't just break, but would completely shatter the social contract that the CCP has with the Chinese people; that is, economically the majority's life gets better, and they won't actively resist or protest. Anti-covid-restriction fueled protests would be nothing compared to what would happen in the event of an invasion attempt on Taiwan. The relatively small protests - albeit biggest since Tianamen - re: Covid convinced the government to open up *in the middle of winter* (with likely disastrous consequences for the whole world).

In short, whilst Taiwan makes clear that it will defend itself, and can count on Japan and most likely the US, amongst others, to come to its aid, an invasion is impossible.

They may have had plans to test the water (seeing how Japan / US / EU would react) with a soft blockade some years hence. But that's out of the picture now.

Besides, they have little to gain from annexing Taiwan besides political capital. Russian Far East on the other hand, would offer massive lebensraum and resources, and Putin's in the midst of collapsing the Russian Federation.

What you can 'guarantee' as you put it, is that should Russia collapse into civil war, or Balkanise, China will roll across the border and annex vast swathes of territory, with little to no resistance. That's the big prize for them, and always has been. And Putin looks like he might have delivered it to them within Xi's lifetime.

They very much have plans to consolidate in the SCS too, and if the Kim dynasty falls in NK, there's every chance they move in there.

All of these are much lower hanging fruit than TW.

[naavt]

In a nutshell, big brands will shift their production agreements and turn to other countries, probably with a much higher labor cost that will be expressed in the MSRP to final customers!

[Campyforever]

Unfortunately carbon fiber frame manufacturing is not the sort of industrial activity that can just up and leave....
It is a skilled trade that requires expertise....

"Besides, they have little to gain from annexing Taiwan besides political capital. Russian Far East on the other hand, would offer massive lebensraum and resources, and Putin's in the midst of collapsing the Russian Federation."

Well they did it in Hong Kong... ture, relatively bloddless but mission accomplished!

[RDY]

Unfortunately carbon fiber frame manufacturing is not the sort of industrial activity that can just up and leave....
It is a skilled trade that requires expertise....

"Besides, they have little to gain from annexing Taiwan besides political capital. Russian Far East on the other hand, would offer massive lebensraum and resources, and Putin's in the midst of collapsing the Russian Federation."

Well they did it in Hong Kong... ture, relatively bloddless but mission accomplished!

Did it in Hong Kong? HK was a *leased* British colony. The lease ran out. Whilst making a big song and dance about independence and democracy, the Brits ensured that their erstwhile colony had neither, and any democratic institutions and civic society had very shallow roots. They resisted calls for decades for democracy and self-determination in HK, because they were desperately trying to hang on to the remains of their empire, and then astroturfed a bit of 'democracy' in the last few years to cover up their legacy and look better when China inevitably stopped pretending that it didn't completely control HK after the handover in 1997.

It's also connected to the mainland and never had any independent security apparatus.

The situation is drastically different in Taiwan.

[Campyforever]

Correct...

So what will happen to bicycle production when the Chinese come over for tea...??

[Miller]

Jeez, who cares. If there's a shooting war between China and Taiwan we'll have bigger concerns.