Geopolitics and frame manufacturing....

[Lina]

"whataboutism", the dumbest words ever invented to forget angolsaxon crimes; the world outside of NATO just calls it hypocrisy; Ted Bundy wants to punish other murderers

And yet it's still a logical fallacy. The topic here wasn't what bad things NATO/Americans have done. I agree with you that they're not innocent either. But that isn't relevant to this in any way. And it does not in any way lessen the things that Russians/Chinese have done.

[maxim809]

Okay guys this is a really interesting topic, and I am impressed with the thoughtful and mostly civilized comments posted on an otherwise sensitive topic thus far.

Moving this to Cycle Chat.

As you carry on, our ask is if y'all could somehow bring your points back to Frames/Bike Manufacturing as you continue to bring healthy geopolitical perspectives and debate to the table.

THANKS

[maxim809]

I'm sad this thread has stalled. My first guess is because of my previous post.

For transparency, a day before my post we had a few users report this thread as "inappropriate because of politics". Which are fair reasons to report a thread. The admins and mods discussed what to do, and we were split 33/66 between "Let it be" vs "Put a stop to it".

I was on the "Let it be" side, and I pushed back strongly on shutting down this thread.

This is because personally, I am a huge fan of geopolitics and really any type of well-mannered, thoughtful discussion like the one taking place in this thread. After much internal geopolitical debate between the admin/mods (ironic, I know), as a compromise I was able to settle for moving the thread to Road->Cycle Chat with the asks I made above, and crossed my fingers this topic would keep going.

Through this, I learned that WW is still figuring out whether it wants to be politics-free or a pro-politics space. This time, I had to be the messenger, and I feel like I shot something good and also got shot myself. But hopefully anyone still checking in knows that my stance on this is I am open to any and all types of thoughtful respectful discussion. I’ve actually been pushing for over a year to open a “General” board, but every time I bring this up I get dragged to the parking lot and beaten with golf clubs and Silca pumps until I cry Pogačar in proper Slovakian enunciation.

Which sucks cuz I can’t ride my bike while bedridden for weeks.

Or maybe the reason why the thread died is because “bring your points back to Frames/Bikes” is really too big of an ask. I suppose Miller and Campyforever's point about bikes not being the biggest problem if we go to war is probably the most salient point.

I am open to hearing people’s thoughts on whether WW should or should not be open for geopolitics, as well as hearing people’s attempts at pronouncing Pogačar, as I get dragged to the parking lot once more.

[Andrew69]

I will tackle the last item first, and can conclusively say that I can pronounce Pogačar perfectly.
Can say that I am still annoyed that when the UCI Road champs where on in Wollongong, the Slovenian team were guests of honour at a lunch at the Croatian Church my father attends and even though he knows I ride and I am a fan of cycling, he didnt bother letting me know so I could have attended.

As far as opening the forum to any form of political discussion, Im sure I can say that I am not the only person to have left a forum due to the infiltration of politcal discussion into said forum, and totally destroying the character of the forum.

[ichobi]

Opening up to a political discussion is like burning a flint next to the nuclear warhead. No matter how well intentioned, you will never be able to put out the flame. Deeply personal and deeply subjective. Let’s not really get there. That’s my sentiment.

[MagicShite]

I'm sad this thread has stalled. My first guess is because of my previous post.

For transparency, a day before my post we had a few users report this thread as "inappropriate because of politics". Which are fair reasons to report a thread. The admins and mods discussed what to do, and we were split 33/66 between "Let it be" vs "Put a stop to it".

I was on the "Let it be" side, and I pushed back strongly on shutting down this thread.

This is because personally, I am a huge fan of geopolitics and really any type of well-mannered, thoughtful discussion like the one taking place in this thread. After much internal geopolitical debate between the admin/mods (ironic, I know), as a compromise I was able to settle for moving the thread to Road->Cycle Chat with the asks I made above, and crossed my fingers this topic would keep going.

Through this, I learned that WW is still figuring out whether it wants to be politics-free or a pro-politics space. This time, I had to be the messenger, and I feel like I shot something good and also got shot myself. But hopefully anyone still checking in knows that my stance on this is I am open to any and all types of thoughtful respectful discussion. I’ve actually been pushing for over a year to open a “General” board, but every time I bring this up I get dragged to the parking lot and beaten with golf clubs and Silca pumps until I cry Pogačar in proper Slovakian enunciation.

Which sucks cuz I can’t ride my bike while bedridden for weeks.

Or maybe the reason why the thread died is because “bring your points back to Frames/Bikes” is really too big of an ask. I suppose Miller and Campyforever's point about bikes not being the biggest problem if we go to war is probably the most salient point.

I am open to hearing people’s thoughts on whether WW should or should not be open for geopolitics, as well as hearing people’s attempts at pronouncing Pogačar, as I get dragged to the parking lot once more.

You have to ask yourself what is the whole point of WW, is this a hobbyist forum or is this a "general" forum?

Let's stick to what is great and avoid doing too many gimmicks.

The only thing that unite us here right now is our autistic little hobbies and you want to introduce "real life politics" into it?

[Mr.Gib]

maxim809 - sheesh, bedridden for weeks? Sounds serious. Sorry to hear that and hope you come back strong from whatever has you down.

Perhaps the thread stalled because those that had thoughts on the issue shared what they had, and topic exhausted itself (at least for now).

I'll make a contribution with respect to both frame manufacturing and relevant geopolitical issues. For the record, I agree with the sentiment that this website is not the place for politics. Getting a mature, well informed discussion from what is nearly a literal cross section of the planet is a big ask. Too big IMO. But what the heck, I'll play while the game is on.

Setting aside any future military conflict involving China and Taiwan, I do believe that supply of Taiwan/China manufactured bicycles is imperilled by a host of issues ranging from rising protectionism, to an ongoing global pandemic, to rising transportation costs. This all means rising costs/prices, which will inevitably result in decreased availability.

Regarding the spectre of military conflict in the global center of bike manufacturing, predicting the likelihood of such is a fraught exercise made more difficult by our Western bias that assumes a rational calculation by the participants in such an event. As is most often the case with dictatorships, where a decision to invade another country is made by one man (and I do mean a man), the motivation isn’t necessarily reality based. Dictators have a way of surrounding themselves with people that tell them what they believe the dictator wants to hear. Those with bad news for the dictator tend to have shorter lifespans. At a glance, it would seem that the communist dictatorship in China is less deluded than its counterpart in Russia, but a kinetic event that would disrupt the flow of bikes to the rest of the world is not beyond the realm of possibility.

These concerns about global stability shine a light on the importance of an outward looking America. When a dictator is told by their advisors, “go ahead, America won’t do anything, it’s busy with itself”, that is a whole other level of permission. While there is much to criticize historically, global stability has depended on “pax americana”. Simply that both ally and foe believed, whether rightly or wrongly, that the USA alone possessed the power to address any global issue. And I don’t mean just military conflict. Rather I include everything from global health to rules-based trade. Sadly, a good bit of the equity that could compel order and safety has been squandered over the last few years, and that loss will have an impact on us and our bikes for the worse.

As noted by others some perspective is in order. For many of us the impact of this shifting global order is limited to a higher price for our hobby, but for the millions that impact will be starvation and death. Do spare a thought for those unfortunate souls.

[Konsi]

I'm sad this thread has stalled. My first guess is because of my previous post.

For transparency, a day before my post we had a few users report this thread as "inappropriate because of politics". Which are fair reasons to report a thread. The admins and mods discussed what to do, and we were split 33/66 between "Let it be" vs "Put a stop to it".

I was on the "Let it be" side, and I pushed back strongly on shutting down this thread.

This is because personally, I am a huge fan of geopolitics and really any type of well-mannered, thoughtful discussion like the one taking place in this thread. After much internal geopolitical debate between the admin/mods (ironic, I know), as a compromise I was able to settle for moving the thread to Road->Cycle Chat with the asks I made above, and crossed my fingers this topic would keep going.

Through this, I learned that WW is still figuring out whether it wants to be politics-free or a pro-politics space. This time, I had to be the messenger, and I feel like I shot something good and also got shot myself. But hopefully anyone still checking in knows that my stance on this is I am open to any and all types of thoughtful respectful discussion. I’ve actually been pushing for over a year to open a “General” board, but every time I bring this up I get dragged to the parking lot and beaten with golf clubs and Silca pumps until I cry Pogačar in proper Slovakian enunciation.

Which sucks cuz I can’t ride my bike while bedridden for weeks.

Or maybe the reason why the thread died is because “bring your points back to Frames/Bikes” is really too big of an ask. I suppose Miller and Campyforever's point about bikes not being the biggest problem if we go to war is probably the most salient point.

I am open to hearing people’s thoughts on whether WW should or should not be open for geopolitics, as well as hearing people’s attempts at pronouncing Pogačar, as I get dragged to the parking lot once more.

I don't think a politics-free forum about any topic would work. Questions about whether to support brands that produce abroad or teams that have an oil company (Total, Ineos) or an authoritarian State (UAE, Bahrain) as their name sponsor are political. Traffic laws are political, too. So just shutting anything political down would not be good for WW in my view, as long as there is a connection to cycling.

On the topic here, I agree to some extent with the point that bikes wouldn't be the biggest of our worries. Brands that have learned a lesson quick enough from the pandemic restrictions enacted by China might have an edge. And I really fear for the people of Taiwan.

[rudye9mr]

keep Non-political please - cause viewpoints will mostly revolve around the super-majors without thinking about RoW.

The point of current war affecting bicycle manufacturing and semi-conductor chips is warranted though...once ya'll don't start about ecommerce and bitcoin

[maxim809]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. I agree. Also Magic lol.

Anyway, based on everyone's helpful comments (including Magic) the takeaways are clear:
- Keep WW purely equipment focused.
- Bicycle related debate is expected, and should be allowed to continue until it strays too off-topic.

Also, damn Andrew that sounds infuriating. Come on dad.

[walafel3]

keep Non-political please - cause viewpoints will mostly revolve around the super-majors without thinking about RoW.

The point of current war affecting bicycle manufacturing and semi-conductor chips is warranted though...once ya'll don't start about ecommerce and bitcoin

good topic
there is no single forum, not even a cycling one, that can live without a political topic and shit in it.

[naavt]

So since it appears very likely that China will assume control of Taiwan in the next few years, what
sort of disruptions will occur? Factor owns their own facility and what might become of that?

Sorry to disagree (and I find this topic a very interesting one) but the assumption that China will take over Taiwan bears several issues which, in my opionion, make that reality a very distant, or even impossible one.

First, a military invasion would likely trigger severe international sanctions and economic disruption, which would be extremely costly for China since Taiwan has significantly improved its defense capabilities lately.

Another thing to consider is that the United States has signaled strong support for Taiwan, including military aid and implied defense commitments, which serves as a deterrent, and that most geopolitical experts believe an outright invasion is more likely to be deterred by diplomatic, economic, and strategic considerations.

In a nutshell, there are far more global interests on Taiwanese economy than those from China alone. We all see what's happening on Ukraine and how they are being supported by the West economy against Russia, so I'll expect the same to occur in Taiwan, even if US has a gigantic economic debt placed on the Yen country.

[Mr.Gib]

Curious what people think the impact of 100% tarrifs on Chinese imports will do to the bike industry in the US.

[EtoDemerzel]

Curious what people think the impact of 100% tarrifs on Chinese imports will do to the bike industry in the US.

I think everyone is wondering how this will all take place and happen. The specifics of the tarriff system will matter.
In general, a 25% tarriff will effectively stop imports of non-essentials. The bike industry, as with many others, are heavily invested in foreign manufacturing and imports.
Add 25% to any foreign product (which is basically everything in cycling). That's quite a steep tax.

[Mr.Gib]

Add 25% to any foreign product (which is basically everything in cycling). That's quite a steep tax.

The current proposal against BRICs countries was 100% tarrifs. Is a Specialized SL8 Dura Ace going to cost $25,000?

I wonder if there are any US manufacturers that can benefit. ie if you make a bike in the US and the imported competition doubles in price, you would then theoretically have an opportunity to double your price and still be competitive. Problem is many inputs for US construction will likely also be Chinese. Either way it would seem the price is heading up, way up.