Virus And Riding.

[OnTheRivet]

It's called statistics. Scientists use it to search data for patterns, quite fascinating if you're into this Science thing.

That last line of yours is irony, right?

So I just dunked on your post and your response is to "try" to be condescending. Well played,

[5DII]

Results Compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 59% (49-69%) for hospitalization; 105% (82-134%) for ICU admission; and 61% (40-87%) for death. Increases with Delta variant were more pronounced: 120% (93-153%) for hospitalization; 287% (198-399%) for ICU admission; and 137% (50-230%) for death.

from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21260050v2 - slanted bold text highlighted by yours humbly.

You're welcome.

Good grief, this is a theorhetical MODEL! Also NOT peer reviewed. This is the kind of stuff that is infuriating. Emotion has no place in science.

What is the alternative? Do we wait and watch, rather than make predictions based on current observational data?

[OnTheRivet]

Results Compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 59% (49-69%) for hospitalization; 105% (82-134%) for ICU admission; and 61% (40-87%) for death. Increases with Delta variant were more pronounced: 120% (93-153%) for hospitalization; 287% (198-399%) for ICU admission; and 137% (50-230%) for death.

from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21260050v2 - slanted bold text highlighted by yours humbly.

You're welcome.

Good grief, this is a theorhetical MODEL! Also NOT peer reviewed. This is the kind of stuff that is infuriating. Emotion has no place in science.

What is the alternative? Do we wait and watch, rather than make predictions based on current observational data?

Governments are making horrible policy decisions based on these models.

[Mr.Gib]

The government policy response to Covid seems to be quite good here, slow off the mark but ultimately effective. The models used as guidence were quite accurate. It's hard being on the outside to understand why there should be restrictions when everythings seems fine. But ultimately it comes down to coming up with policy that keeps the hospitals from exceeding their capacity. When hospitals get to the point where they are unable to address any medical issues other than Covid, that's a serious problem. Don't fall off your bike, don't get cancer, etc. Need surgery? Too bad you'll have to wait. I live in a place that the pandemic all but passed by. Still, national and regional borders closed, masks indoors, work from home, etc. Roads were empty, riding was great. I'm lobbying for another lockdown.

[ghostinthemachine]

Good grief, this is a theorhetical MODEL! Also NOT peer reviewed. This is the kind of stuff that is infuriating. Emotion has no place in science.

Errr, last I looked Epidemiology was a science. As is statistics.

Maybe you shouldn't use emotions to decide what is, and is not, a science?

[Mr.Gib]

Good grief, this is a theorhetical MODEL! Also NOT peer reviewed. This is the kind of stuff that is infuriating. Emotion has no place in science.

Errr, last I looked Epidemiology was a science. As is statistics.

Yes, and we are going to need epidemiology and statistcs both in a big way in the near future. We are far from done with this. Major areas of the US are less than 50% vaccinated, parts of Asia and nearly all of Africa have no chance, and Russia has totally shit the bed. Russia is "officially" 15% vaccinated. What the actual number is, that's a mystery. Brisk trade in vaccination certificates for the unvaccinated there as well. Pay a bribe and you are officially registered as vaccinated with the government . Problem is when your neighbour dies from Covid, and you change your mind, you are forbidden from getting vaccinated because of course the records show that you are already vaccinated . Nobody does it quite like the Russians. I hope you Europeans are keeping an eye on your eastern borders.

[OnTheRivet]

Good grief, this is a theorhetical MODEL! Also NOT peer reviewed. This is the kind of stuff that is infuriating. Emotion has no place in science.

Errr, last I looked Epidemiology was a science. As is statistics.

Yes, and we are going to need epidemiology and statistcs both in a big way in the near future. We are far from done with this. Major areas of the US are less than 50% vaccinated, parts of Asia and nearly all of Africa have no chance, and Russia has totally shit the bed. Russia is "officially" 15% vaccinated. What the actual number is, that's a mystery. Brisk trade in vaccination certificates for the unvaccinated there as well. Pay a bribe and you are officially registered as vaccinated with the government . Problem is when your neighbour dies from Covid, and you change your mind, you are forbidden from getting vaccinated because of course the records show that you are already vaccinated . Nobody does it quite like the Russians. I hope you Europeans are keeping an eye on your eastern borders.

Okay, so logically, most humans don't want to die. If in reality people were being exposed to incredible amounts of fatalities (like the fake ones coming out of China in the early days) "most" people would be saying "shit, get me that vaccine quick" why is that not happening? I know of nobody who has died or been in the hospital with covid. None of my close friends have lost a family member to covid however one lost a cousin to suicide and another a father to cancer. This is the basis for my argument with regards to over reporting of deaths and the monetization of the pandemic. A lot of people have made a lot of money and aquired a lot of political power during this period, if you think that has no bearing on what's happening you are not thinking critically. By the way, I live in Southern California, on my weekly road rides I regularly pass two very large hospitals, over the last year I'll ride by and pop my head into the ER, nobody, always empty. In fact a person I have raced with is a Nurse at another hospital locally and she was layed off last year becuase there were no patients. This is on the ground first hand data. Not some model created by some group funded by the pharmacuetical companies. This is why I remain skeptical. Money and Power.

[Mr.Gib]

Okay, so logically, most humans don't want to die. If in reality people were being exposed to incredible amounts of fatalities (like the fake ones coming out of China in the early days) "most" people would be saying "shit, get me that vaccine quick" why is that not happening?

That is exactly what is happening. Over 4 billion vaccinations have been administered. And that is exactly what I said - "get me the vaccine quick", and I was vaccinated at the first opportunity and found an earlier appointment for my scheduled second dose. And you as well - you've been fully vaccinated since ...May, I think you wrote? If you know this (that billions of vaccinations have been given and people worldwide who can't get the vaccine are clamouring for it), why would write what you did above? Or perhaps you didn't know.

None of my close friends have lost a family member to covid however one lost a cousin to suicide and another a father to cancer. This is the basis for my argument with regards to over reporting of deaths and the monetization of the pandemic. ...I live in Southern California, on my weekly road rides I regularly pass two very large hospitals, over the last year I'll ride by and pop my head into the ER, nobody, always empty. In fact a person I have raced with is a Nurse at another hospital locally and she was layed off last year becuase there were no patients. This is on the ground first hand data.

I can only explain again what others have tried. Anecdotes like the above, while interesting (if somewhat hard to believe, seriously who just pops into the ER to see what's going on?) provide zero insight into the nature of the Covid pandemic. They are certainly not data and they are certainly not the basis for any argument. And I think you mean primary data, not "first hand" data. Primary data is data newly collected as part of some research, experiment etc. To my knowledge, which I admit is limited, there is no such thing as "first hand" data in research. There is an expression "first hand stories", or the like.

A lot of people have made a lot of money and aquired a lot of political power during this period, if you think that has no bearing on what's happening you are not thinking critically. ....Not some model created by some group funded by the pharmacuetical companies. This is why I remain skeptical. Money and Power.

Why would you be against someone who comes up with a cure being rewarded for it? This is the key to innovation. This very promise of reward for the risks taken is what separates the United States from nearly all other countries in it's entrepreneurial superiority. (Notwithstanding that there were multiple nations that contributed to vaccine development.)

As for political power, you are in a democracy. Get out and vote if you don't like the performance of your government. As for the involvement of pharmaceutical companies, my understanding is that pandemic mitigation policy is the product of input from academics with expertise in relevant fields and public servants. At least that is how it works in Canada, and seems to be the case in many of the States as well. Is it so different in California?

@OnTheRivet, your posts really give the impression of a man flailing his arms in frustration. I get the sense that you really want something to be true and your forcing a lot of square pegs into round holes to make it appear so. Perhaps it seems like it to you but there really are no "dark forces" that have used the pandemic to take control away from you.

If I may offer a suggestion, rather than trying to understand the pandemic by sorting out the blizzard of information, or dropping into hospital ER's, why not focus on a single statistic - excess deaths. In any given time period a certain number of Americans die. From Mar 7th-Jul 9th 2021, an extra 722,000 died https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... lsrc=aw.ds. Now all you need to do is consider what caused their deaths. While we may or may not know the exact cause, at least we know they didn't die in the two hospitals near you!

[synchronicity]

Good grief, this is a theorhetical MODEL! Also NOT peer reviewed. This is the kind of stuff that is infuriating. Emotion has no place in science.

Errr, last I looked Epidemiology was a science. As is statistics.

Yes, and we are going to need epidemiology and statistcs both in a big way in the near future. We are far from done with this. Major areas of the US are less than 50% vaccinated, parts of Asia and nearly all of Africa have no chance, and Russia has totally shit the bed. Russia is "officially" 15% vaccinated. What the actual number is, that's a mystery. Brisk trade in vaccination certificates for the unvaccinated there as well. Pay a bribe and you are officially registered as vaccinated with the government . Problem is when your neighbour dies from Covid, and you change your mind, you are forbidden from getting vaccinated because of course the records show that you are already vaccinated . Nobody does it quite like the Russians. I hope you Europeans are keeping an eye on your eastern borders.

Okay, so logically, most humans don't want to die. If in reality people were being exposed to incredible amounts of fatalities (like the fake ones coming out of China in the early days) "most" people would be saying "shit, get me that vaccine quick" why is that not happening? I know of nobody who has died or been in the hospital with covid. None of my close friends have lost a family member to covid however one lost a cousin to suicide and another a father to cancer. This is the basis for my argument with regards to over reporting of deaths and the monetization of the pandemic. A lot of people have made a lot of money and aquired a lot of political power during this period, if you think that has no bearing on what's happening you are not thinking critically. By the way, I live in Southern California, on my weekly road rides I regularly pass two very large hospitals, over the last year I'll ride by and pop my head into the ER, nobody, always empty. In fact a person I have raced with is a Nurse at another hospital locally and she was layed off last year becuase there were no patients. This is on the ground first hand data. Not some model created by some group funded by the pharmacuetical companies. This is why I remain skeptical. Money and Power.

Wait a minute. You don't sound at all scientific to me (and that's a scientist telling you that keep in mind). A real scientist looks at the hard data, not their own personal observations. Healthy skepticism is fine. Paranoia is something else entirely. Some people think that everyone is "gullible" for wanting vaccines, and then they go and believe some guy that thinks 2 billion vaccinated people are going to drop dead in two years' time (sorry I couldn't find the link to that). I once met a builder who thought that "The Beatles surely couldn't have come up with all those songs by themselves, it's all George Soros". Don't be like that guy, please.
I urge you to read "Demon Haunted World" by Carl Sagan, especially the part about the "baloney detection kit".

Absolutely covid deaths are being overreported in the media (in some countries). Or what I mean by that is that other deaths are being under-reported (not reported enough about), not that they are lying about the figures. For example about 16 people have died from covid this year in Australia (2021 only). Yet in the first 4 months of 2021... some 4,166 died from heart disease alone and 15,836 from cancer! During the 12 months ended June 2021, there were 1,142 road deaths. And yet there have been sod all stories in the news about those particular non-covid related deaths. Having said that, we've been relatively lucky here in OZ until now... 4.2 million people have died alll around the world from COVID (so far).

[TobinHatesYou]

You don't spread cancer, heart disease or mowing down people with cars. They are not infectious diseases.

I'm sure there are all sorts of programs in Australia promoting heart disease awareness as well as coalitions that strive to improve road safety from the municipal level to the national level. Cancer research is ongoing as well. Just because you've stopped paying attention to them doesn't mean everyone has.

[synchronicity]

True cancer and road deaths are not contagious, true. But you can't deny that COVID is the "flavour of the month" for the mainstream news media. They are all over it, all the time. 1000 times more people have died from cancer than covid this year in Australia (as I said, the cancer stats are only for January to April, not January to July). People aren't entirely stupid and a lot of the "disbelief/apathy" about COVID comes from not trusting the media. The news should be more proportionate to the number of deaths.

The media... doesn't exaclty lie as such. What they do do is rather sneaky. They don't tell you the whole truth.

I'll give you one example. They'll write a great big story about the sentencing of Brenton Tarrant a year or two after the fact, under the guise of the "far right terrorism threat" narrative, and meanwhile, they're so preoccupied with that, that they'll actually ignore a real news story about 75 elderly Nigerians killed in an Islamic terror attack by Boko Haram. That happened on the 26th/27th of August last year. It wasn't in the ABC. It wasn't it the BBC. It wasn't in the Guardian, NBC, or CNN for that matter either. Practically no one carried that story.

[ghostinthemachine]

I know of nobody who has died or been in the hospital with covid. None of my close friends have lost a family member to covid however one lost a cousin to suicide and another a father to cancer.

In the last 18 months I've lost more than half a dozen colleagues and friends to COVID, another two to cancer, one to suicide, a few to bein old. 40 or 50 have tested positive for COVID, at least. Two have serious long COVID (one lost the ability to speak properly due to the damage done to lungs/throat, now undergoing therapy, the other is in a wheelchair.).
And this is from a country that is being reported as having "no lockdown".
~50% of the workforce have been homebased since March/April last year, schools and universities have been essentially online since April last year. My local hospital had refrigerated lorries acting as temporary morgues last year, plus two extra ICU/COVID wards (both fairly well filled).

This is why I remain skeptical. Money and Power.

Yes, People are getting rich and consolidating power off the back of this. Mostly cronies of those in power in certain countries, you really need to be angry at the politicians (and political/financial systems) in those countries who are using a global pandemic to get rich.
Rather than assuming it's made up and not as bad as all that.

[ghostinthemachine]

TBH the real issue with COVID is the asymptomatic carriers and those who aren't yet exhibiting any symptoms.
Best part of a week to 10 days wandering the streets/workplace/public spaces, infecting other people. You don't get that with many other "flu type" illnesses. Not as many asymptomatic carriers, and usually only 24-36 hours before symptoms/illness is obvious.
This is what's most worrying to those who've seen (and understood) the statistical/epidemiological modelling.

[Mr.Gib]

True cancer and road deaths are not contagious, true. But you can't deny that COVID is the "flavour of the month" for the mainstream news media. They are all over it, all the time. 1000 times more people have died from cancer than covid this year in Australia (as I said, the cancer stats are only for January to April, not January to July). People aren't entirely stupid and a lot of the "disbelief/apathy" about COVID comes from not trusting the media. The news should be more proportionate to the number of deaths.

Flavour of the month? Flavour of the last 18 months I think you mean.

Did you say that you were a scientist? On what rational basis can it be argued that news stories should be proportional to deaths? Following that rationale most news stories would be about old age. On the contrary I'd argue that media coverage should be driven by the importance of the topic to the consumer of the media. Covid is important not because of how many die but how many could die and the effects of that on the health care system. And Australia owes its current low death rate to precisely the intensity and seriousness with which it responded to the outbreak - closed its border tight, an extreme response. Sounds like your arguing that because so few died, Australia should do nothing. After all nothing special was done to deal with all the cancer deaths.

Disbelief and apathy are not accounted for by lack of trust in media alone. The same message about the dangers of Covid are coming from every conceivable source, not just media. Like the builder who thinks George Soros wrote all the Beatles songs, these people have chosen to believe views that they have found that suit their preferences. They are quite literally incapable of percieving the actual nature of the problem. Only dramatic events that effect them personally will have an impact on their beliefs. Watch the vaccination rate rise as deaths get closer to home.

[synchronicity]

And Australia owes its current low death rate to precisely the intensity and seriousness with which it responded to the outbreak - closed its border tight, an extreme response.

Actually people are still flying to/from Australia.

Sounds like your arguing that because so few died, Australia should do nothing.

No I'm not saying that at all.
I was one of the first to get the Pfizer vaccine in my age group. I had to drive a total of 8 hours to get both shots.