OP back again.
So my feeling is this...
1. rolling resistance.com measurement of tire thickness is a good basic guide to how likely a tire is to puncture. This doesn't mean you can't puncture an endurance tire in 5km, or get 2000km of puncture free love from a hardcore race tire as luck always plays a part.
2. New tires are less likely to puncture than old ones.
3. Weight does play an issue, but surely it's better to measure this in bike+rider weight. This is obvious because most people pick up more punctures on the rear than front, so logically the rear takes more weight, therefore weight increases the likelyhood of puncturing.
So most bikes are balanced 60% rear 40% front.
My bike plus rider weight (clothes, shoes, drinks, spares, helmet, computer, snacks, cell phone in short everything) is 90kg. Therefore there is approx 55kg on the rear and 45kg on the front. But if I dieted and got my bike and rider weight down to 80kg I would then have a balance of approx 45kg rear and 35kg rear now meaning I would expect to have on average as many flats on the rear as I used to on the front.
I'm not claiming to be correct, because my math is horrible, but if I'm wrong please put me right in an evidence based and polite way.
