Good thread. I have some experience in this area over the last two years so here's my $.02
I had quit training seriously in 2008, moving from a home right below mountains to the middle of a moderately dense city wherein the goofy track bike I rode around for fun before became my sole means of transportation and then fun... basically finishing grad school and changing jobs led to developing a social life where drinking and packing on the pounds went hand in hand. Aside from an occasional club ride, commuting about, and "fair weather weekend rides" (fred-cruise, eh?) I wasn't training at all. I got up to 180 lbs (81 kg or so), but due to genetics it wasn't as obvious... I sort of put it on everywhere instead of localized at the gut. Basically, I became a skinny guy in a suit of fat. Disgusting.
I began to lose weight just from mild training and calorie counting in 2011 but put on a tiny bit of winter weight and was a bit careless about things like drinking. That ended in spring of last year, when I got dropped on a club ride and only due to freakish genetics did I catch up and finish the 98 mile "practice century".
Enough was enough.
So now, eight months later, I am down to 147 lbs (66 ish kg) and should really be at 139 (63 ish). This was all done with training, training, and more training and calorie counting. I wasn't always as strict, but now that I'm down to the last little bit and count every little thing I can say what has worked for me.
(BTW, I'm 5' 8.5" about 174 cm.)
Since 2009, I have used a Wiithings scale and Loseit. I was pretty bad about using Loseit for a while, but the last two years I've been pretty solid about inputs (especially the last six months). The Wiithings data, though, goes back enough to have very good info regarding body fat, lean mass, and general weight. It also hooks up with Loseit and updates my weight daily (and caloric needs as well).
What really has helped was not just counting food, but having an accurate idea of how much I expend during a workout.
So I did some research.
I found out that most calorie estimation tools for exercise are far too generous. So after reading around, I found out about the Firstbeat algorithm that Garmin devices now use (specifically the Edge 500 I use). It is supposed to be startingly accurate once you have set up some basic information. Read up on it here.
Let me show you what I mean.
Here is a ride I did recently on Strava:
Note the calories at 2364. Now look at the same data from Garmin connect, where the number matches what comes from my Edge:
Now note the calories there, 1601. That is a whopping 700 calorie difference. Consider that, if you're like me, you are either on the trainer or the road six days out of the week and you're trying to lose weight. That 700 calories in one ride would really add up. In fact, considering my average weekly caloric expenditure from riding comes in at around 5,500 calories or so (estimate, this time of year my weekly mileage is 180-220 depending on the weather conditions) if that was similarly off (47%) I'd not lose much of anything.
There's a little more to this as well, that's worth considering. Saying that a chap like me, shorter, not terribly muscular (aside from the legs, of course), should burn about 2300 calories a day if not losing weight or otherwise exercising means that I normally burn about 95 calories an hour (on average) just being alive. So really, a ride as I showed (which was about 3.5 hours) really only burned 1268 calories above what I would have burnt otherwise.
I could be off in my reasoning (some of this came from a free e book I read years ago entitled "The Hacker's Diet"
) but this stuff really does matter when you're getting into the nitty gritty.
I did not see as solid and consistent results with calorie counting and training until I took these things into account. It does help that I still commute by bike and walk around a good bit, but I don't count those as part of my expenditure. Other than that your methods should work, but it is so crucial to have accurate data.
The only other thing I should add is that I am careful to eat well for recovery (eggs, nuts, fish, etc... I read Lim's book of course though sometimes time pressures have me resort to Endurox) and diligently consume protein (nothing crazy).