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PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:31 am 
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Venturing into MTB market might be fairly risky to Campy. Their philosophy and the appeal do not seem to mix very well with the typical MTB crowd. Plus MTB parts tend to be cheaper than road, hence their pricing disadvantage is even more acute. They are fairly boxed in as a boutique brand right now. Their best bet is to expand into the OE road market. When we have 1 Veloce equipped bikes for every 3-4 105 equipped ones, that will be a sign of some improvement.

One particular stat I am interested in (Madcow?) is, for every $6K+ bike (or $3500+ frame) sold, how many $1500-2500 bikes are sold? I suspect that number will speak volumes.

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Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:31 am 


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 1:39 pm 
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indrek wrote:
madcow wrote:
Sram is losing it fast to shimano due to shimano getting better (actually really good) and sram not speeding up their R&D and release cycles. Plus the sram pricing needs solving if they really want to compete with shimano. Sram had the "brand" benefit 2-3 years ago, but I think they are losing that, if not already... watching the RED "no batteries needed" add really makes me wonder what the h*** are they thinking...


This is an interesting thought that I actually had myself. Not too many years ago in the archery industry, one company touted itself as being the first single cam bow designer and that is all you needed, because it eliminated the cam timing issues associated with old double cam systems. Then other more forward thinking companies started to produce double cams that were designed infinitely better and worked. This same company continued to do the single cam shuffle and then created another company to produce a double cam.

In saying all this, to me it is pre-mature for SRAM to come out and say "No batteries needed." What will the campaign be when you come out with an electronic version..."Oops, batteries now needed."

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 1:48 pm 
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elviento wrote:
Plus MTB parts tend to be cheaper than road

I know you said tend but I don't agree. Pricing of equivalent Road/MTB components is really pretty close for both Shimano and SRAM eg: Red/XX or DA/XTR

It seems to be fairly consistent through the group hierarchy as well.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 6:31 pm 
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madcow wrote:
Global sales for the bicycle industry is projected at $30 Billion for next year. So you can see that even though there are some large players, Shimano, Giant, Trek, etc... there is definitely no dominate force in the industry. Shimano is the biggest and as such is less than 10% of the industry. Though they do wield the largest influence. That's a big part of why some economists believe that the U.S. bicycle industry is perhaps the only current example of perfect competition. It's going to be interesting to see how the middle ground players, everyone from Campag to Sram in scale survive in the bike 2.0 future. (read Rick Vosper for more on bike 2.0)


Surpised by the point about perfect competition. The intranet is of course a really revolutionary mechanism for distributing price and product information to consumers, and allowing consumers to purchase products at the lowest price. I don't pretend to know the US bike market but my observation would be that the online retail market in the US is actually remarkably poor - in terms of numbers of shops with good product, pricing and usability - vs. for example the UK, a country with less than one fifth of the population - accepting the UK is in the EU of course.

Certainly much of the talk on this board regarding retailers relates to UK based retailers - and it can't all be about FX rates.

The UK retail mid to high end road bike parts market I believe has been driven closer to perfect competition than most by the strength of the online offerings.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 2:56 am 
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sawyer wrote:
madcow wrote:
Global sales for the bicycle industry is projected at $30 Billion for next year. So you can see that even though there are some large players, Shimano, Giant, Trek, etc... there is definitely no dominate force in the industry. Shimano is the biggest and as such is less than 10% of the industry. Though they do wield the largest influence. That's a big part of why some economists believe that the U.S. bicycle industry is perhaps the only current example of perfect competition. It's going to be interesting to see how the middle ground players, everyone from Campag to Sram in scale survive in the bike 2.0 future. (read Rick Vosper for more on bike 2.0)


Surpised by the point about perfect competition. The intranet is of course a really revolutionary mechanism for distributing price and product information to consumers, and allowing consumers to purchase products at the lowest price. I don't pretend to know the US bike market but my observation would be that the online retail market in the US is actually remarkably poor - in terms of numbers of shops with good product, pricing and usability - vs. for example the UK, a country with less than one fifth of the population - accepting the UK is in the EU of course.

Certainly much of the talk on this board regarding retailers relates to UK based retailers - and it can't all be about FX rates.

The UK retail mid to high end road bike parts market I believe has been driven closer to perfect competition than most by the strength of the online offerings.

Views?


You should do a search on the German ones.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 10:40 am 
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I haven't done a search as such, though I am aware of small number of good German outlets such as Jedi (albeit at the more high end of the market, I would bracket Jedi with Ribble, Wiggle, PBK, CRC etc.)

Do a search on this board for stores and see what comes up ...


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:17 pm 
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elviento wrote:
Venturing into MTB market might be fairly risky to Campy. Their philosophy and the appeal do not seem to mix very well with the typical MTB crowd. Plus MTB parts tend to be cheaper than road, hence their pricing disadvantage is even more acute. They are fairly boxed in as a boutique brand right now. Their best bet is to expand into the OE road market. When we have 1 Veloce equipped bikes for every 3-4 105 equipped ones, that will be a sign of some improvement.

One particular stat I am interested in (Madcow?) is, for every $6K+ bike (or $3500+ frame) sold, how many $1500-2500 bikes are sold? I suspect that number will speak volumes.


Well, to give you an idea in the US 12 month period there were approximately 340,000 "Road Bikes" sold. Of those bikes only 2,438 were above $6,000, roughly .7%. Not many. Sub $1000 accounted for just under 36% or 121,500 units. If I include all road bikes sold under $2000 you're looking at 80% of the market.


Also, your assertion that MTB parts are cheaper is not correct at all. Material prices are material prices. While the avg. MTB sold is much less expensive than the avg road bike this has to do with how the "styles" are positioned in the market. Placed where you can see this are areas where the style and functionality are similar between the to styles. Cranks, chains, cassettes, etc. A Dura-Ace and XTR are roughly priced the same. Even with wheels you can see some price parity.

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Last edited by Junior Varsity on Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:20 pm 
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Junior Varsity wrote:
Even with wheels you can see some price parody.


You must be referring to Lightweights? :wink:


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:13 pm 
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Aw crap, meant Price Parity. I need to slow down and read what I write.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 10:28 pm 
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Great info here.

madcow wrote:
As I understand it, Specialized has twice been saved from bankruptcy in the last 15 years. The first time was in 1997 when their creation of the full force line led to a massive drop in sales through their dealers (said to be a 30% drop in sales over a year.)


Ha! I had one of those. From Costco. Had totally forgotten about that bike.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 3:44 am 
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Junior Varsity wrote:

Well, to give you an idea in the US 12 month period there were approximately 340,000 "Road Bikes" sold. Of those bikes only 2,438 were above $6,000, roughly .7%. Not many. Sub $1000 accounted for just under 36% or 121,500 units. If I include all road bikes sold under $2000 you're looking at 80% of the market.



Those are incredibly low figures. :shock: Either that or the demographic demands are a real contrast to what I see in my area (not in the US), which has an area which is about half that of Rhode Island .

Between 8~10 bike shops that deal mostly in the mid to higher end bikes, as far as I know, they churned out something in the range of 1000 bikes in the over-US$5000 range over the past 1 year. :noidea:


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 2:28 pm 
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Junior -- looks like the ratio I was looking for should be in the 1:50 ~ 1:100 range. Even lower than I thought, I was more thinking 1:20-ish. Guess economy is bad. Or I get distorted impression after seeing ww'ers posting over a dozen Merlins/Serottas/Parlees, etc.

Regarding MTB parts being cheaper, I have not looked at MTB parts very much in the past 5 years but if my memory is half correct, Shimani is the high end in the MTB market while more or less medium end in the road market. There were many more lower cost alternative brands. In road, most boutique brands are much more pricy. Campy, etc. And we are not even in AX/THM land yet.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 4:16 pm 
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Yes, most people's views are greatly distorted by what area they are involved in. Look at it this way, in the past year approximately 1% of the US purchased a road bike from a bike shop. These numbers don't include MTB/ Cross/ TT/ Juvenile or even mass market sales. This is purely Road Bikes.

You really do need to pull boutique items out of this equation. Shimano DA/ SRAM Red/ and Campy SR are top end road products. You will always have outliers but the buck pretty much stops with the big 3 as far as drivetrain.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2011 11:59 pm 
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Bicycle Statistical Data Charts and figures that IBF has harvested. http://www.ibike.org/library/statistics-data.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Statistical Yearbook / Annuaire statistique
Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Office / Department des affaires economiques et sociales internationales, Bureau de statistique
United Nations / Nations Unies http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Bicycle Product Suppliers Association, 1-215-564-3484, U.S. information.
Bicycle Retailer & Industry News. US and international industry statistics.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:05 pm 
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I own SRAM bank debt in some of my portfolios (I'm a professional money manager) and in my view they are not overlevered and they are exceptionally well managed.

When looking at the industry, I think it's important to recognize who delivers what those top 10 frame sellers need and who doesn't. SRAM is valuable to the industry; it's not all about what consumers think. SRAM is very clear-eyed about its place and its competition, IMO, and will do fine regardless of the perception of electronic gaps at the top of the road line.


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Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:05 pm 


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