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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:44 am 
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Say you want to ride 150 miles (without breaks) and haven't done that before, how do you work out what power you can realistically aim for if going for your best time possible and your endurance doesn't let you down?


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:53 pm 
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Location: Atlanta, GA, US
Are you riding solo or in a group?

Personally, I have found that I can ride at around 60-70% of my FTP for a long time when riding solo. In a group, I am usually the one just trying to hang on so I don’t pay that much attention to power

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Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:53 pm 


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:40 pm 
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Would be solo fa63, and a steady effort. Thinking to do the festive 500 in 2 rides. Just get up early and bang it out before lunchtime. Trying to work out what sort of time I could do it in to make that feasible or not :?

Will play around with 65% FTP and see what sort of times that gives me :P


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:57 pm 
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Location: North Carolina, USA
Shrike wrote:
Would be solo fa63, and a steady effort. Thinking to do the festive 500 in 2 rides. Just get up early and bang it out before lunchtime. Trying to work out what sort of time I could do it in to make that feasible or not :?

Will play around with 65% FTP and see what sort of times that gives me :P



For efforts like this, I use BestBikeSplit (www.bestbikesplit.com) because you can load your route, bike weight, rider weight, FTP, etc and it'll do a very good job at estimating the solo effort needed to achieve specific ride times.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:58 pm 
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Location: Houston, Texas
Shrike wrote:
Thinking to do the festive 500 in 2 rides. Just get up early and bang it out before lunchtime.

250 Kilometers (155-miles) before lunch? Using averages, we are looking at 6 1/4 hours at 40 kph (24.85 mph)! What time are you planning on starting this adventure?

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:51 pm 
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@Jack Bloody hell, beast of a site that! Cheers, will use the freebie to plan this out :P

@ms6073, pretty sure it'll take longer than 6.25 hours, looking more realistically at 7.5 to 7 depending on the wind. If I can average just over 20mph for the route I'll be quite pleased.

I know the route too, last time I was there I was doing 23.1mph for just under 30 miles (with around 9mph wind). Took about an hour and 10 mins. I'd like to do laps of it which means I'm never crazy far out and risk screwing someone else's day with a pickup. Nice coastal loop too, quite scenic so happy enough there.

I'm going to run Jack's site there and see what it comes up with. Maybe I'm way off base. Hope not.. if this turns into an all day affair I'm out..


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:22 pm 
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So, had a go at Jack's site, just can't believe how boss it is. Though it gives me rather optimistic results. Or am I being pessimistic? Not sure.

This doesn't include the 10 mile ride down and back from the coastal loop (ride down is really fast and traffic free and ride back I'm planning on gunning it with everything left so not including it in my pacing for the loop):

at 12kph wind
Race Overview
Distance 221.83 km
Time 06:13:50
Avg. Speed 35.6 km/h

So it's basically estimating that I do around 22mph average with 237 watts, which is the top end of my endurance zone. That sounds class, I'd be well pleased with that.

Used to always do 100 milers and up to 125miles, but really hilly. Recently fell out of love with it and was just kinda considering doing this, with no motivation there... the numbers have peaked my interest now though. I'd like to see just how accurate that site is..

If I see the forecast with a couple of decent days I'll have a go at it. One flatish and coastal and the other hilly. I guess basically I need to stay out of the tempo zone to not blow up if I'm understanding Jack's site right.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:22 pm 
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Location: Atlanta, GA, US
If you can do 237 Watts for 6+ hours, you should consider racing in the World Tour

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:26 pm 
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Location: North Carolina, USA
fa63 wrote:
If you can do 237 Watts for 6+ hours, you should consider racing in the World Tour



Depends on the rider's weight, I suppose. If he's 100kg, it's a different kettle of fish than perhaps a 65kg rider.


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Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:26 pm 


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:46 am 
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Yeah I thought 237 was a bit optimistic, though the number when I looked it up was at the top end of my endurance range according to zone charts, which is where I guessed Jack's site pulled the figure from. Had a look at my power curve in 2017 and as I thought, no real big rides to work off. Longest this year was 4 hours at 203w back in May with an FTP that was over 40 watts lower.

I'm between 75kg to 81kg these days. Though more around 79kg come Christmas realistically. Like Jack says, my power and w/kg isn't interesting for my weight.

Anyways, worth a shot. If I blow it'll serve me right for doing small rides most of the year :P

You guys doing the Festive 500 by the way or not interested?


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