It's been 10 stages already, and Lance has maintained (as in the case of Jan) or slightly increased his lead (as in the case of Tyler) on his biggest rivals.

There are only a 5 or so stages where serious time damage can be done.

Does anyone feel that if Jan/Tyler do not act soon, Lance will win again?

the first two weeks didn't exactly offer lots of real chances. Stages to take time out of a GC contender (who wasn't caught behind a crash):
prologue
team time trial

there have been zero mountain stages until today, and no individual time trial yet.

everything is going to happen in the last week and a half.

(12) La Mongie is the one where real separations begin. Friday and Saturday will be big days and then the mountain TT. If it's close then stage 19 will be a big day.

It's tricky. At the moment the onus will be on Tyler to attack more than Jan. Why? Well, Jan may have it in his head that he can take the minute back from Lance like he did last year in the TT.
I think the real selection will be on the Alpe D'Huez stage, and the final TT if it's still not decided. The problem with that from what i've seen in the first week is that Lance looks a lot better than last year.
This side of a miracle I can't see Mayo cutting back such a deficit. Mayo, Heras and Simoni are too weak in the TT's and I can't remember Tyler beating Jan in a TT. If I was Lance I would probably throw everything at the Alpe D'Huez TT. Mayo's not going to beat him by 6 minutes even on the Alpe.
Tactically, Lance seems to get it right more than Jan does. Although I would like to see Jan win it: it seems to me that Lance can only lose it. Lance just has to follow Jan and not let the likes of Mayo or Heras get too far on the moutain stages.

Lance isn't worried about Heras or Tyler.I think a climber will attack tomorrow or sat.Lance will wait and see if Jan can go and if he can't I expect Lance to ride away from everyone.

I'm not sure, but I'm a little worried about Jan losing 2.30 tonight.

After today, I think it is clear that the guys on the podium (except LA) will not be the race favorites.......

Ullrich looked like a big fat pig in lots of pain today.....did you see his face, wow!!

he lost over 3 minutes last year

http://grahamwatson.com/gw/imagedocs.ns ... St8-012000

not a great performance but there is room for improvement - le tour is only half over

It's hard to say after what i saw on stage 12.

1: Armstrong
2: Basso
3: Klöden

That's what I think the podium in Paris will look like....

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Whow! That's a pretty damn nice garage door!

"He lost over 3 minutes last year" yes that was to Mayo to Armstrong only a minute and a bit.

He is pretty much out of it at nearly 4 minutes, and as per usual would have to wait for Armstrong to have a very bad run. Face it he is just not capable of beating Armstrong

Mind you , LA disn't look to fresh either at the arrival, he also went deep.. he looked like death warmed over to be exact.
Basso instead looked like he only rode 100K..

Let's see if Ullrich can do something tomorrow, or if Lance gives him the final blow.. Basso and Klöden look to be his main adversaries..

Ullrich, Heras, Hamilton, Mayo, Sevilla ; they were all gasping for air..

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Auribus teneo lupum

Well, it aint over until the fat lady sings. But she's putting on the viking helmet.

I hope the rivals punch back honestly .. or even if a new contender like Basso emerges. Otherwise it could be a relatively boring rest of the tour where Armstrong wins by 8 minutes.

after today's stage, jan and tyler don't seem nearly as strong as lance....i was hoping it would be an exciting tour....perhaps one of the non-favorites can put up a good fight and take the victory.

how about basso, virenque, or holden? any thoughts?