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Who will win the TDF?
Poll ended at Mon Jul 12, 2004 3:45 am
Jan Ullrich 38%  38%  [ 35 ]
Lance Armstrong 48%  48%  [ 44 ]
Iban Mayo 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Tyler Hamilton 9%  9%  [ 8 ]
Mario Cippolini :) 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Other 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 91
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 Post subject: Who will win the TDF?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 3:45 am 
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Who's gonna do it? You all know who I'm putting my money on.

Oh, for those who think Jan is fat, check out the latest pics from his winning TT. LOOK AT THOSE LEGS!!!


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 3:51 am 
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Just for laughs. :lol:


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Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 3:51 am 


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 4:49 am 
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My Picks

1. Lance (only a crash can stop him from number 6)
2. Tyler (he will finally finish without crashing)
3. Ullrich (winning one TT does not a tour win make)
4.Heras (Liberty will be happy with this)
5.?? (a suprise)
6.Mayo (peaked to early)

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 5:29 am 
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Should have posted my pics.

1.) Jan Ullrich
2.) Tyler Hamilton
3.) Lance Armstrong
4.) Iban Mayo
5.) Roberto Heras

2nd through 4th are a toss up, but the way I see it going down. Jan is the only definite thing. :D

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 6:14 am 
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Yeah, barring accident Lance will win it.

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Jan Ullrich (2 mins down)
3. Tyler Hamilton (2:35 secs down)
4...who cares?

Heras, leipheimer, simoni somewhere up there too.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 6:14 am 
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1.Tyler
2.Lance
3.Ullrich

All within one minute of each other in Paris.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 7:24 am 
Top 5:
Jan Ullrich
Lance Armstrong
Iban Mayo
Tyler Hamilton
Gilberto Simoni

Definitely not in that order!
Jan's in top condition - Better shape than ever!

    I think Jan will win the overall and one mountain stage.
    Mayo will win the Alp D'Huez TT & maybe another mountain stage.

    This year, I don't think Lance will win anything - Just some constant finishes that will allow him to stay 'on top' of 3rd place!



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 7:36 am 
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1: Lance
2: Tyler
3: Ullrich
4: Mayo
5: Basso

Image
(this used to be my avatar but it's too big)

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 8:01 am 
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The loss of Vino is a big loss to T-mobile .. otherwise I'd rate Ullrich higher. Mayo will do better then any other tour with a mountain TT but still has a weak team and .. the tour is a 3 week event, he might win the shorter races (as he's been doing all season) but the tour is a whole different kahuna. Tyler is Lance's biggest competition .. it turns out his team is stronger then originally thought. He's TT'ing better then ever. He also prepares the same way as Lance, their tactics will be perfect. Heras might be a surprise but I'd say the same thing about him as with Mayo .. and Heras isn't as strong as Mayo. Simoni? - forgetaboutit!

Top 5:
Lance
Tyler
Ullrich
Mayo
Heras


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 Post subject: Top 5
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2004 5:12 am 
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My top 5:

1. Jan Ullrich Will win long TT. Will match Lance in mountains.
2. Lance Armstrong Will win Team TT. Will beat Jan in 1-2 mountain
stages, but by less than 45 seconds. Will lose
GC to Jan by a margin of less than 90 seconds.
3. Tyler Hamilton Will win 1 stage. Will better Jan and Lance in
Prologue. Will stay close in mountains.
4. Iban Mayo Will win Alpe de Huez TT. Will also win another
mountain stage. Team will lose 2:15 seconds
in Team TT. Will lose 1:30 to both Jan and Lance
in the long ITT.
5. Roberto Heras Will surprise lots of people. ITT will hurt him.
6. Santiago Botero Will appear out of nowhere and win surprise.
7. Ivan Basso


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2004 6:01 am 
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Of Armstrong, Ullrich and Hamilton... the strongest team will determine the winner (IMO). That's assuming the above 3 all finish with no fluke problems of their own (sickness, crash, flat at the wrong time, etc.).

Mayo will be fast in the mountains, but I don't think he's fast enough in flat ITT, and his team isn't as solid as the other 3.

I'd personally give the nod to Armstrong because of Bruyneel's tactics and the overall strength and dedication of the team.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2004 4:11 pm 
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Location: Colorado
For what it is worth

1: Lance
2: Tyler
3: Mayo
4: Ullrich


Lance has the brains and the team to pull him through. He has done Alpe de Huez over 10 times in May! They learnt alot from the mistakes last year. Also all the team will go into history as well.

Tyler's team is running strong and as a cohesive unit. While a young team, they will do well because they have what Tyler has - heart and guts.

Mayo's team won't loss that much time in the Team TT (rememeber it's limited time loss now anyway.) He is the great equalizer. Everyone will be attacking armstrong. If he matches those attacks - which he can he will really put a hurting on armstrong and move himself up the ranks. he will either do well on Postals lead out's and be a contender, or snap real early.

Jan. Looking good, seems to have his head on right this time, but the team. Lost Vino, still have a lot of support for Zabel. Feel the team will be pulled in mixed directions. Will control the flat TT, team TT will be so so. I think he will smoke the Alpe de Huez as he can control his own pace. But the attacks on armstrong and constant acceleration changes during the hills will be too much for him, and he won't have support to bring him back on.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2004 4:20 pm 
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nzkiwiguy wrote:
[snip]Mayo's team won't loss that much time in the Team TT (rememeber it's limited time loss now anyway.)[snip]

Absolutely the worst rule change! :x Why not just have a loss limit on all stages. :roll: It's a team sport, therefore:

1) Armstrong
2) Ullrich
3) Hamilton
4) Mayo
5) Basso

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2004 4:48 pm 
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Quote:
Absolutely the worst rule change! Why not just have a loss limit on all stages. It's a team sport, therefore:


Of course if there was no TT last year Ullrich would have beaten Armstrong by over a minute. :wink:

Personally I don't like the TT because if you have a really strong team with the tour contender then it gives him an unfair advantage over say another tour contender cough ( Jan Ullrich) who didn't have as good of a team for the TT.

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Posted: Tue Jun 22, 2004 4:48 pm 


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2004 5:27 pm 
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Superlite wrote:
Of course if there was no TT last year Ullrich would have beaten Armstrong by over a minute. :wink:


Well, maybe if you took just straight time and subtracted .. but you can't really say that because Postal's tactics would have changed in the end if they had to. Lance was getting stronger in the mountains near the end. He could have attacked on either stage 14 or 16 (not just 15) but he didn't have to. They played defense on stage 16 and he also took it easier on the next TT.

The thing is, every year they try to make the tour harder for armstrong with rule changes or a course that doesn't fit his strengths.. and every year he still is the strongest overall rider. I think that will be true this year more so then any other.


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