Will Shimano go...12 speed, wireless, DA disc? Maybe.

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pamountainbiker
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by pamountainbiker

Since the Dura Ace 9100 thread has devolved into a discussion about rim width I thought I'd post this tidbit of click bait here. For quite some time, Dura Ace or for that matter people in the Shimano-know, have stated that Di2 will remain wired, 11 speed etc. And that very well may be true, conventional wisdom says it will be. However, here are some things to consider that run counter to that conventional wisdom. First, it's June and nary a single official word or sighting of the new top end Shimano offering has emerged other than their Stages + Pioneer like PM. Yes, there was that piece from Velonews citing unnamed industry sources, and Shimano got all annoyed.

That piece suggested that it would remain wired albeit with a much smaller A junction that could fit inside a handlebar and that of course there would be a DA level disc offering. I would consider this news to be derivative and representative of Shimano's conservative nature. In other words they tweaked DA. If that's the case and it's a more conservative evolution why all the shade over Velonews breaking the scoop and why have there been no sightings which have normally started around Spring classics time? The high end bicycle industry has gotten incredibly competitive with SRAM arguably "owning" Shimano on the marketing front what with their near constant "leaks" of everything from eTap, to Eagle to Hydro eTap to 1X everything. SRAM (more power to 'em) is basically owning the component high performance conversation at this point. A derivative Shimano DA 9100 release is not going to sway the conversation back, heck it'll hardly even budge the press meter as by that time eTap Hydro will be in the wild. I get that the market is actually made in the OEM channels which Shimano still owns, but you have to imagine that the blue S has a lot of pride which they aren't going to be out positioned on. What's more, the original eTap may or may not have caught them by surprise, but one thing's for sure, SRAM did pull a bit of a rope a dope and corporate marketing moves like that are not easily forgotten by competitors. So, maybe it's Shimano's time to downplay demand for wireless and say that's not really the focus, much like SRAM downplayed electronic all the while working feverishly on a disguised wireless group. In the case of the Velonews leak, the only reason for Shimano to get all angry is because it really is underwhelming and they wanted to be fully ready to head that negative sentiment off, or because it's totally incorrect information which might affect people's buying decisions now.

So, conventional wisdom says that DA 9100 will be wired, will have discs, will have a smaller junction...And if I had to bet I'd say there's a a better chance than not. The reason I might say not, is that Shimano's patent app for what would be wireless DA just went public yesterday - June 2. Most interestingly, it's 12 speed. And Hydro (or not, both are options). The patent covers the controls and how they interact within the entire bike operation ecosystem. It does not for example discuss signal transmission protocol, but it does discuss pairing methodology. And yes, it looks like the general way you use Di2 remains the same (right hand controls rear der, etc). If it's real it also looks like a more "intelligent" system than eTap carrying over things like auto trim which require der-to-der/sprocket to chainring positional awareness. As you can also imagine both controls and both derailleurs will have their own power supply via battery, so no hybrid, partially wired system. Also if indeed it is 12 speed and real, I can't see anyway that you could squeeze it on a 130 rear, so maybe that stays 11 speed, but if you're running 135 and by extension discs you get the extra sprocket. And the lever body? It's made of carbon. The controllers also contain ROM and RAM, so take away from that what you will in terms of potential configurability options, synchro shift, etc. Also, the derailleurs although not covered in depth appear to preserve similar motor tech to existing Di2 units, so take away from that what you will about shift speed, etc. (That's the advantage of having tons of prior Di2 derailleur patents).

We all know Shimano patents a ton of stuff that never sees the light of day. Many companies do. The difference here is that this patent app is fully detailed with a very high degree of information about how the entire system will actually function; the work behind it must have taken years. Also, this patent app aligns with other patent apps that deal specifically with how the hydro system works. What will be especially telling is if and when documents are released detailing the transmissions which this does not cover. Also, it will be interesting to see if, when and how any apps from the FCC come to light. Those are harder to track down as they could be filed under different supplier names etc. If in a couple weeks the derailleur patents come to light, then I'd say it's fully game on.

If in the 10% this ends up being true, it would explain Shimano's silence to date, and also their annoyance at having tons of people confirm it's staying wired. It would also be a bit of a marketing rope a dope in and of itself.

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wingguy
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by wingguy

pamountainbiker wrote:The high end bicycle industry has gotten incredibly competitive with SRAM arguably "owning" Shimano on the marketing front what with their near constant "leaks" of everything from eTap, to Eagle to Hydro eTap to 1X everything. SRAM (more power to 'em) is basically owning the component high performance conversation at this point.


In the MTB world, yeah. In the road world, hell no. eTap is the only thing SRAM have that is being talked about at all. Without it they were dead and buried in the road market and Shimano more dominant than ever. SRAM have bugger all OE specced bikes from the major brands (and fewer every year) and they get killed in aftermarket sales as well. eTap has brought them back into the conversation, but it remains to be seen if it will keep them there after the initial buzz has worn off. I honestly don't see Shimano needing to do anything at all to stay at the top.

As for eTap hydro, they'll need a serious improvement for their road discs just to be as good as Shimano's current offerings, and Shimano's new road discs are likely to be significantly better again. And for the majority of people interested in disc I think braking performance will be a bigger factor than whether or not it has wires.

And yes, it looks like the general way you use Di2 remains the same (right hand controls rear der, etc).


Huh? Although that's the default config, Di2 is already completely customiseable. Any button can do any job.

pamountainbiker
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by pamountainbiker

I don't think SRAM's financial performance or real world performance necessarily trumps that of Shimano's. Duly noted is Shimano's dominance of OEM and of fishing reels. I realize Di2 can be configured to work any which way you'd like. My point was, they aren't replicating paddle shift F1 cars.

My point was about marketing and "the conversation." I believe SRAM is killing it on marketing. Whether or not the product works (a different debate). SRAM is winning the game of perception, because for the most part Shimano doesn't play - maybe their internal sentiment curation analytics indicate they don't have to play, who knows.

After seeing SRAM ads I began thinking everyone lived on the California coast, wore Rapha, had 1X gravel bikes, and used clutched derailleurs...on their criterium sleds shod with Zipp 404 NSW's.

Back to the topic at hand - so what about that there 12 speed cassette and wireless shifting, is it a Shimano unicorn?

wingguy
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by wingguy

pamountainbiker wrote:My point was about marketing and "the conversation." I believe SRAM is killing it on marketing.


And in the road market Shimano is killing it in sales, OEM and aftermarket, so who cares?

goodboyr
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by goodboyr

I like the OP's thinking in this. Hard to believe it will just be an incremental change with a few evolved bits. And if that's what it ends up being, that's sad and uncharacteristic. I think that patent application points in the right direction. Good info!

SLCBrandon
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by SLCBrandon

^you own/ride Shimano I assume? Being serious, because it seems every single drivetrain convo comes down to each person defending their own brand they currently run and not willing to have an unbiased convo. I run all 3 and have no eggs in any basket. Each group, IMO, is far from perfect. Each has their pluses and minuses for my uses.

Anyway, I think it was a great OP and worth a real convo. Just my take.

wingguy
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by wingguy

SLCBrandon wrote:^you own/ride Shimano I assume?


Only a set of Saint brakes. Otherwise XO1 on the Tracer and Red on the Evo - an option that Cannondale had last year, along with Force and Rival where this year they only have (in the UK, anyway) Shimano OE builds.

And if you'll notice I didn't mention performance apart from on the disc brake side (and is anyone really going to argue that point?), I was talking about what is actually selling. And from what I can see right now in our shop SRAMs market presence on the road is at an all time low. They're on no Cervelo, no Giant, 1 Cannondale, 1 Scott, none of our smaller brands - only Focus have got multiple SRAM models. Their OE presence has been dropping faster than their World Tour sponsorships. Is that a company that's 'killing' the marketing battle?

Contrast with their OE and aftermarket success in MTB the last few years and there's no comparison. Heck, I'd say that without 1x and Pike forks SRAM would be *f##k* right now :wink:
Last edited by wingguy on Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Calnago
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by Calnago

SLCBrandon wrote:... Each group, IMO, is far from perfect.

No, you're wrong. Campagnolo is perfect. :lol:
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2lo8
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by 2lo8

I think everyone knows 12 speed is on the drawing board. The question is if it's going to happen in the next generation. I can easily mock up some CAD files of 12 speed cogs and shifter bits. It's not the shifters or the derailers or the cassette that's hard to engineer. It's the chain. Also 135/142 doesn't just get you a new cog. You have to be able to widen the cassette. SRAM gets away with it because of the huge cog overhanging the freehub body, something not viable with road cassettes. Even though everyone will have to buy new wheelsets for disc anyways, it's going to make some people really unhappy if they end up having to buy new wheels just for a wider freehub when Shimano did that for 11 speed just last generation.
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eric
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by eric

I just went 11sp on my best bike, they can't come out with 12sp yet!

Here's the patent application: http://appft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Pars ... AN/shimano

135mm OLD would allow a 12th cog without insane dish. Of course the freehub would be longer. Dish is still going to be pretty extreme unless the 12sp cog spacing is a bit narrower than 11sp.

pamountainbiker
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by pamountainbiker

My best bet is that they do not go 12. I should have also said that the patent app, shows two diagrams, one with 11 one with 12, and the one with 12 is more of a conceptual schematic. As crazy as this sounds I actually kinda hope it remains wired. Because I'm old fashioned.

pamountainbiker
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by pamountainbiker

My comments about marketing and killing it as anecdotal as I realize that sounds is directed toward their presence on social media, in print, earned media, unearned stats and on other prominent bicycle websites. By any objective media buyers definition, they are very effectively implementing a roadblocking strategy and have attained the impression numbers that reflect that. They aren't deeply in the pro tour sponsorship game because honestly and sadly, the ROI just isn't there - which is more a statement about pro racing's reach and influence with actual consumers. Although they have ingrained themselves in event sponsorship throughout all levels of the sport. And for 2017, they are making a more dedicated push into OE. I'll put it this way. Maybe they aren't killing it, but from a VC's vernacular they sure as heck are disrupting and making a nuisance of themselves. They even get press on the packaging of eTap for goodness sakes.

Really the intention on drawing attention to their tactics is that as a company that's less than one quarter the size of Shimano they have done a superb job of doing everything they can to shift the market mindset to their favor. As for Shimano and Dura Ace 91whatever, I think it's fun to speculate. I do think more of Shimano as an engineering company and for that I eagerly await whatever they've got in store. I do hope it's amazing of which wireless would definitely qualify.

As a side note, I do ride both brands. If the new DA is wired, I probably would not upgrade from my existing 9070 since that bike doesn't have discs. However, I am definitely getting eTap Hydro when it drops to go on the new Super Six Evo Disc - I've already got the LBS on notice! I am excited about that, but the wait sucks to get both the bike and the eTap Hydro. If the new DA is wireless and hydro, I might rethink the eTap setup, but that might incur an even longer total wait.

DartanianX
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by DartanianX

No to 12, no to wireless.

Yes to DA specific Discs

bungis
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by bungis

If they're really coming out with a built-in power meter that would be a very likely reason for the media blackout so far. There's an incredible amount of teething issues with releasing a power meter.

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eaglejackson
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by eaglejackson

Whether your speculation turns out to be true or not, thank you for the post -- it shows smart thinking.

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