2016 Madone 9

[eric01]

Can we get back to talking about the bike? I don't come to Weight Weenies for an economics lesson. If you don't like the price or don't see the value for money -- don't buy it. Simple as that. And don't try to impose your value calibration to others. My mother thinks that spending $500 USD on a bike is too much. Maybe I should get her to post here.

Back to the bike... I for one, am seriously considering getting a Madone. Does anyone here have one? Or anyone test ridden the H1 vs H2? Other than the fit and I believe a slight weight difference -- is there any noticeable difference on the road?

A number of magazines have been posting their reviews. All very positive.

[davidalone]

it's not luxury good . 2nd thing : plenty of bicycle manufacturers do not feed teams- or if they do it's very limited and not € consuming-, and very often have equal or better products than "brands" . TIME is very good example. ANd it's not testing ! It's pure advertising !

I explain this so simple so it will be clear and without doubts :

Price of frame manufacturing ( high end, top model, famous brand ) : 250€, import+import taxes : 100€, manifacturer margin : 1500€ ( about500%) : dealer margin : 3500€-1850€ =1650€ ( prices VAT free ) . Amount of "good" : UNLIMITED. Country of manufacturing : China / Taiwan.

Where T.F. you see "luxury" here ???? People making lay'up on frames/ wheels/ handlebars in China earn less per year than you per week !

Cost of engineering : High end CF composites and structure engineer cost less than 100.000 USD per year ( non actual recently, remote workers from India and Pakistan are faster better and ... yes- cheaper ) . Software license : max 20.000usd/ y. Testing in house : stuff they build 10-20y ago is still in use... for final products, most is tested on software , then prototype on mechanical devices and that's it. SOME test production frame picked just for quality control. Some, not all. Most test on factory devices in China/ Taiwan.

Think this way : how properties of fiber and resin changed in last... 5 years ? DIdn't at all. so they base on knowledge they do have. They don't discover wheel again and again and again.

And now explain to yourself this ( but please : this, just this and only this ! be honest with yourself ! ) : how much engineering in last 3 years certain company put to certain bike frame :

1. Cannondale for Supersix
2. BMC for TeamMachine, Time Machine ( TM & TMR ) and GF
3. Look in 695, 675



I stop here to not make list long. Simple question. I know answer . You do know to, isn't it ? Or you don't and will insist that paint scheme is engineering

With VERY few exceptions they do not own even own factory.... subcontractors make all the job. Luxury , you say .... Well...

Again : Prices of bicycle components are ridiculous. Relativeley to other high end sporting goods, and non relatively too.

If I have to pay for bicycle same money as for world class high end olympic race ready boat... something is wrong here.

I am a mechanical engineer, so I know abit about manufacturing and research and development. I also work in cycling media, so I get to speak to engineers and staff of various cycling companies.

Your estimates are quite far off.

I am going to give you a run down on R and D costs for a new aero bike, NOT INCLUDING manpower.

1) Aerodynamics: CFD software will be purchased per year per license. Specialized has told me they own somewhere around 4 different licenses. I would predict Trek would have somewhere about the same. each license costs about 15-20000 a year, so that is at least 60-80,000 USD a year. i

2) Finite Element Software: Again, 15-20,000 USD a year. most companies will have more licenses than CFD, because you need it for more projects than just aero. lets put it at 4 licenses for a big company. again, 80,000 USD. you could outsource CFD and FEa to a design house, but I doubt big companies do that. you learn more if you keep this in house.

3) Prototyping
Everyone is using 3D printing for prototyping now. cost for an in house 3D printer for such applications? somewhere in the ballpark of $500,000 to $800,000, maybe more if you need to do really big projects ( bicycle frames are considered big) . again, possible to outsirce, but in the long run not worth it.

4) Wind tunnel time:
It is about $1000 per hour at places like A2, or San Diego. To design an aero frame that is 'in the conversation' you need at least 100 hours. this is straight from an aero engineers mouth. For a marquee project? add in another 50 hours. add in transport and flying costs, maybe another 10,000. thats 160,000 right there. Specialized built their own wind tunnel, which probably cost them in the ballpark of $1.5 million, but they are a unique case

5) Strain gauge/ suspension property testing
Real World testing using strain gauges. Strain gauges cost about $15 per piece and aare non reusable. then you need all the infrastructure and hardware/software to support such testing... lets put a ballpark figure at $200,000.

6) Manufacturing cost
depending on the complexity of the mould, mould cost can vary. a complex design of mold like the Madone 9 is going to cost somewhere in the region of 100-200,000 per mold, per size (internal cavity molds are quite complex. I have it straight from a Spec engineer that the tooling required to make just a single bike design like the TT shiv is around 1 million USD.

7) raw material
you are right that CF is CF, and there is no 'special sauce', but things like resin and nano-materials are NOT made equal. there is a whole industry called materials science devoted to research in this area. Carbon nanotubes that many manufacturers started using about 5 years ago? they arent cheap. they are $20 a GRAM.

Now this isn't including staff cost... Let's say you have 5-10 engineers on staff for two years working on this project... pay them $100,000 a year per engineer for two years to work on this? with 5 engineers thats already a million dollars. 10? 2 million dollars. other support staff like technicians, machinists,

then you have sale costs: distribution, marketing, shipping, storage... you do the math of that.

So, cost of designing and manufacturing a new Carbon Fiber bike, especially if you are fighting for the top cachet of the 'aero bike' market, can indeed reach several millions.

[glepore]

He's also way off on shop margins,fwiw...

[KWalker]

The one complaint I've heard about this bike is that the seatmast is REALLY thin. To the point where traveling with it is a bit precarious. I was surprised that the two Trek LBS I'm in touch with haven't had a single order for the new bike yet. Not sure why that is, but one complaint the manager had was H1 availability/pricing.

The one area where Speci wins with the Vias is that they sponsor a lot of amateur race teams and can offer reduced pricing on the modules/complete bikes that make them slightly more feasible. Not that said racers are poor, but Trek doesn't offer much in that regard which is probably why you see less of them on the road. I'm wondering how many of these will actually sell.

[Trkorb]

Speaking about delicate flying. I was speaking to a guy who was flying with his 9 and it got flagged for an extra search after he had checked it because the tube within a tube decoupler came up funny on the x-ray machine.

Took him ages to convince the airport that's just the design

[FIJIGabe]

My bike is always inspected by TSA. Bikes are too big to fit in the scanner, so they have to manually check them. Also, never fly with CO2 cartridges either as carry on or on your checked bag. That's a guarantee for further inspection/confiscation. Now, I just stop at a local bike store and buy a cartridge when I get there.

[RDJEHV]

My bike is always inspected by TSA. Bikes are too big to fit in the scanner, so they have to manually check them. Also, never fly with CO2 cartridges either as carry on or on your checked bag. That's a guarantee for further inspection/confiscation. Now, I just stop at a local bike store and buy a cartridge when I get there.

I never had issue with co2 cartridges. Read somewhere that you are allowed to take them with you as they are the same cartridges used for life vest. There is a rule saying that safety devices cannot be confiscated.

[wheelsONfire]

Could it really be an issue of you have all paper work for the bike / frame? It's not like it's a cost of an china knock-off + you probably have a dealer name on receipt.

This means anyone with internet can do a easy check up, so it takes minutes to see it's just a bike.

[justkeepedaling]

it's not luxury good . 2nd thing : plenty of bicycle manufacturers do not feed teams- or if they do it's very limited and not € consuming-, and very often have equal or better products than "brands" . TIME is very good example. ANd it's not testing ! It's pure advertising !

I explain this so simple so it will be clear and without doubts :

Price of frame manufacturing ( high end, top model, famous brand ) : 250€, import+import taxes : 100€, manifacturer margin : 1500€ ( about500%) : dealer margin : 3500€-1850€ =1650€ ( prices VAT free ) . Amount of "good" : UNLIMITED. Country of manufacturing : China / Taiwan.

Where T.F. you see "luxury" here ???? People making lay'up on frames/ wheels/ handlebars in China earn less per year than you per week !

Cost of engineering : High end CF composites and structure engineer cost less than 100.000 USD per year ( non actual recently, remote workers from India and Pakistan are faster better and ... yes- cheaper ) . Software license : max 20.000usd/ y. Testing in house : stuff they build 10-20y ago is still in use... for final products, most is tested on software , then prototype on mechanical devices and that's it. SOME test production frame picked just for quality control. Some, not all. Most test on factory devices in China/ Taiwan.

Think this way : how properties of fiber and resin changed in last... 5 years ? DIdn't at all. so they base on knowledge they do have. They don't discover wheel again and again and again.

And now explain to yourself this ( but please : this, just this and only this ! be honest with yourself ! ) : how much engineering in last 3 years certain company put to certain bike frame :

1. Cannondale for Supersix
2. BMC for TeamMachine, Time Machine ( TM & TMR ) and GF
3. Look in 695, 675



I stop here to not make list long. Simple question. I know answer . You do know to, isn't it ? Or you don't and will insist that paint scheme is engineering

With VERY few exceptions they do not own even own factory.... subcontractors make all the job. Luxury , you say .... Well...

Again : Prices of bicycle components are ridiculous. Relativeley to other high end sporting goods, and non relatively too.

If I have to pay for bicycle same money as for world class high end olympic race ready boat... something is wrong here.

I am a mechanical engineer, so I know abit about manufacturing and research and development. I also work in cycling media, so I get to speak to engineers and staff of various cycling companies.

Your estimates are quite far off.

I am going to give you a run down on R and D costs for a new aero bike, NOT INCLUDING manpower.

1) Aerodynamics: CFD software will be purchased per year per license. Specialized has told me they own somewhere around 4 different licenses. I would predict Trek would have somewhere about the same. each license costs about 15-20000 a year, so that is at least 60-80,000 USD a year. i

2) Finite Element Software: Again, 15-20,000 USD a year. most companies will have more licenses than CFD, because you need it for more projects than just aero. lets put it at 4 licenses for a big company. again, 80,000 USD. you could outsource CFD and FEa to a design house, but I doubt big companies do that. you learn more if you keep this in house.

3) Prototyping
Everyone is using 3D printing for prototyping now. cost for an in house 3D printer for such applications? somewhere in the ballpark of $500,000 to $800,000, maybe more if you need to do really big projects ( bicycle frames are considered big) . again, possible to outsirce, but in the long run not worth it.

4) Wind tunnel time:
It is about $1000 per hour at places like A2, or San Diego. To design an aero frame that is 'in the conversation' you need at least 100 hours. this is straight from an aero engineers mouth. For a marquee project? add in another 50 hours. add in transport and flying costs, maybe another 10,000. thats 160,000 right there. Specialized built their own wind tunnel, which probably cost them in the ballpark of $1.5 million, but they are a unique case

5) Strain gauge/ suspension property testing
Real World testing using strain gauges. Strain gauges cost about $15 per piece and aare non reusable. then you need all the infrastructure and hardware/software to support such testing... lets put a ballpark figure at $200,000.

6) Manufacturing cost
depending on the complexity of the mould, mould cost can vary. a complex design of mold like the Madone 9 is going to cost somewhere in the region of 100-200,000 per mold, per size (internal cavity molds are quite complex. I have it straight from a Spec engineer that the tooling required to make just a single bike design like the TT shiv is around 1 million USD.

7) raw material
you are right that CF is CF, and there is no 'special sauce', but things like resin and nano-materials are NOT made equal. there is a whole industry called materials science devoted to research in this area. Carbon nanotubes that many manufacturers started using about 5 years ago? they arent cheap. they are $20 a GRAM.

Now this isn't including staff cost... Let's say you have 5-10 engineers on staff for two years working on this project... pay them $100,000 a year per engineer for two years to work on this? with 5 engineers thats already a million dollars. 10? 2 million dollars. other support staff like technicians, machinists,

then you have sale costs: distribution, marketing, shipping, storage... you do the math of that.

So, cost of designing and manufacturing a new Carbon Fiber bike, especially if you are fighting for the top cachet of the 'aero bike' market, can indeed reach several millions.

I'm in the industry as well, and just one of my FEA verification tests for a joint assembly design cost a staggering amount, we had to design and manufacture molds, a jig, etc. Your estimate for an entire bike design sounds reasonable to me.

[KWalker]

My bike is always inspected by TSA. Bikes are too big to fit in the scanner, so they have to manually check them. Also, never fly with CO2 cartridges either as carry on or on your checked bag. That's a guarantee for further inspection/confiscation. Now, I just stop at a local bike store and buy a cartridge when I get there.

I never had issue with co2 cartridges. Read somewhere that you are allowed to take them with you as they are the same cartridges used for life vest. There is a rule saying that safety devices cannot be confiscated.

Technically they're a compressed gas, which is not allowed.

[RDJEHV]

From the delta website:
Though we provide life jackets to each and every passenger, you are welcome to bring your own. One self-inflating life jacket, containing no more than two small carbon dioxide cylinders plus no more than two spare cylinders, is allowed as checked or carry-on baggage.

http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/ ... items.html

[rwlinda]

I know Trek has listed the max seat height on their website, but since I'm in between 2 frame sizes I was wondering if there's anyone here who can measure the absolute max height of the saddle (or say, center saddle rail as that'd be easier to compare). I assume there's a margin to the listed max height ...
Or what do you think ... would it cause any issue going over the max by a few mm (say max 1cm)?

Thanks!

[albertop07]

I know Trek has listed the max seat height on their website, but since I'm in between 2 frame sizes I was wondering if there's anyone here who can measure the absolute max height of the saddle (or say, center saddle rail as that'd be easier to compare). I assume there's a margin to the listed max height ...
Or what do you think ... would it cause any issue going over the max by a few mm (say max 1cm)?

Thanks!

The Madone 9 has 2 seat posts: 1 for high position (205mm) and 1 for a low position (160mm). Be sure to ask your Madone with the higher seat post (W512910 or W512908).

You can't go over max height because of the way the seat post is attached to the frame.

W512909 SP TRK MDN9 25MM/160MM BK
W512910 SP TRK MDN9 25MM/205MM BK
W512907 SP TRK MDN9 5MM/160MM BK
W512908 SP TRK MDN9 5MM/205MM BK

[rwlinda]

Thanks for your reply, but it doesn't really answer my question

I'd like to know how high the seat can really go...
For instance, I do have a 2015 Trek Speed Concept size L. Specs said max seat height is 841mm, but my seat height is 846 and still have 10mm left, so it can actually go all the way to 856. I did not get a higher stack saddle or anything ... still using the Bontrager one that came with the bike.
Since I'm so close to fitting a 60cm I wonder if there's this same kind of margin on the current Madone.

It feels like a deja vu, had the same debate last year when I was getting the SC and am glad I decided to go with the smaller frame.

[KWalker]

Any more real world weights? I'm finding a huge delta in weight reports for the H1 series bikes. Tour's listed weights and some of the weights in the intro thread seem much higher than original reported weights in press articles.