Do we have any data on the sales volumes of Di2. Anecdotally, it appears to have sold very little in Ireland because of the sheer cost.
I would say that when there is enough volume in the market SRAM will enter it.
I'd be surprised if they are not working on something but that doesn't necessarily mean it will see the light of day any time soon.
Shimano does not share those numbers, but worldwide it's been a case of more demand than supply. Sales will change dramatically for electronic next year. Pictures of Ultegra Di2 have leaked and those levers are branded. Without saying anything that isn't already known, Shimano does not brand something until it's production ready. So to think that it won't be officially announced this sprint/summer would be wrong. The pricing on it is not official yet, but let's just say if price is the only driving factor for sales, Ultegra Di2 should sell more units than mechanical dura ace this year.
See the Tour of California or if not, the Tour de France
It's surely unimaginable that this company says "ok Shimano, ok Campagnolo, you guys go ahead with this and we'll sit on the side". Plus I think someone was saying the black version is a surefire sign that it's coming, because the trick of a colour change is what SRAM does when it's about to kill a groupset (see their MTB versions).
All the same I am not convinced. I see Di2 as very good and particularly useful for chrono/triathlon bikes but it is not a radical improvement on Dura Ace. The same for Campagnolo, it is heavier than SR.
You're right, I'm sure it won't happen that way, but perhaps it's a patent issue. Shimano and Campag together own 100's of electronic patents, maybe Sram just can't find a way around them, and maybe Shimano/Campag don't want to license any of them, or course I'm just guessing there.
The other issue is maybe they just can't get something as good as what they need. Keep in mind that while Sram is a pretty big company, they've never really been a development company. Traditionally Sram has bought smaller companies and refined those designs. The double tap road shifters were likely an in house development but I'm sure it took a long time to get them to a point where they could be released. Starting from scratch with a full electronic group seems it would be much more time consuming. Look at how long Campag and Shimano has been working on it. Shimano is almost a decade into it's development as is Campag. If Sram only started a year or two ago it would seem they have a while til they hit right.
The rumor as I heard it was that Red/Black was not being killed but Force was. Rival and Red would be the choices. It would seem possible that black could become Force and a new top end group introduced, but I don't think we'll see a new road group this year from Sram. If we will it would likely be a Sea Otter release as that's traditionally release time for Sram.