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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:56 pm 
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luckypuncheur wrote:
MSR will be Sagan's first monument win. I simply don't see a tactic that would put someone else in a position to beat him.

Really?
Image


Last edited by jooo on Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:00 pm 
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I really rate Ciolek as a rider but doubt he'd have won without the race interruption last year.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:01 pm 
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The teams at a race put their best man for the job so here are my picks

Edvald Boasson Hagen --> 1st
Peter Sagan --> 2nd
Simon Gerrans --> 3rd

A lot of hark horses from the past;

Pozzato
Pelizzotti
Bennati
Nibali (outside shot)

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:09 pm 
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Gerrans isn't riding.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:29 pm 
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Vansummeren

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:39 pm 
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hna wrote:
Gerrans isn't riding.


No problem I'll update my list as cycling news didn't.

Edvald Boasson Hagen --> 1st
Peter Sagan --> 2nd
Pozzato --> 3rd

A lot of hark horses from the past;

Luke Durbridge
Pelizzotti
Bennati
Nibali (outside shot)

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 6:21 pm 
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Location: England
According to cyclingnews Stannard isn't on the MSR start list. I'm at work so I can't check other sites to see if it's a mistake.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:27 am 
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Anyone handy with solidworks (or whatever you would use) and be able to give an approximation of the saddle setback for Hansen's bike?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/pho ... -sl/297702

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 7:40 am 
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According to the article it's 65mm.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:18 am 
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Hence asking if someone could check...

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:08 am 
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Nic,

I happen to know the writer of the article! Knowing Romey I can imagine he would have been running a tape measure over the thing while taking pictures. He is (or was back in the day) a bike nerd in the truest sense. I will ask if he can confirm the measurements.

I am positive he was a member on here at one point also.

AH

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 12:57 pm 
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Tinea Pedis wrote:
Hence asking if someone could check...


i did the calculation based on ridley's geometry chart and the specs in the article, just on a piece of paper.

i did make some assumptions on the saddle. because i was only able to find the length of the saddle. So in knowing that and using an underside image of the saddle and measuring my computer screen with calipers.... i was able to find rail length from the ratio. Also i assumed that the rails were in the center of the saddle with equal material in front and behind the center point of the rails, this was based on measuring the picture as well. I also assumed that the thomson cradle was 27.2 length. Pictures show it to be slightly longer than the diameter of the shaft however. So i then assumed the clamp could be moved to the very edge rearward of the rails. Also assumed that rails were 25.4mm below the plane of the top of the saddle.

needless to say I'm interested to hear what the guy above me finds out, but the number i got was closer to 82mm which would be the tip of san marco saddle behind the vertical line 90deg drawn through the bottom bracket. I certainly could be wrong though through margin of error on assumptions of saddle

the numbers from the surface seem to make 'sense'. The horizontal distance if there was no saddle , from the bb-top through seattube (816mm) is 239mm, to get to directly above bb. Selle lists the san marco total length as 278mm. So if you imagine crudely the rails being in the middle and being clamped in the middle that would leave ~140 behind and in from of the seat post center. and that's 100mm 'setback'. (i am leaving out the horizontal extra distance because in reality the clamp is clamping the rail at a plane 1inch (assumed) lower than the top of the saddle). And despite moving a clamp fore or aft in rail, it's limited by the outer edge of the clamp, meaning the true adjustability of fore/aft is less than the total length of rail.

Image

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 1:59 pm 
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Location: San Francisco, CA
1. View source for cyclingnews page
2. Find the URL for the JPG (there's a lot of JPGs, but it's sort of obvious)
3. Click on that.
4. Copy image
5. Load into GIMP.
6. Find angle between top and bottom of tires. Take average.
7. Rotate layer by the negative of this angle. This should flatten the bike reasonably.
8. Measure lateral dimension of a tire. This should be around 2.11 meters / π. Divide by number of pixels. This is distance per pixel.
9. Measure lateral pixels from tip of saddle to center of bottom bracket.

I did all of this and got 5.3 cm. But perspective distortion is tricky.

The bike is extraordinary. If I saw that parked outside a cafe, or on the train, I'd shake my head sadly, maybe discretely take a photo for the freaks thread. But Adam obviously knows what he's doing.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 2:12 pm 
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Location: San Francisco, CA
For the record, my prediction was Cavendish.

In head-to-head Cavendish is going to beat Sagan and probably Degenkolb. Greipel is even with Cav, or close, but Cav has a stronger team and is probably stronger tactically. It's going to be a headwind so it's going to be very hard for a break to stay away, and Sagan needs separation. A brutal pace on the Cipressa could pop Cav and Gripel, but that takes a team to sacrifice itself, and that's not likely. On the Poggio, the headwind will make it relatively easy to sit on. Wet roads will be a factor but Cav's good in the rain. Crashes are always an issue and I can't predict those.

Best chance if these two get dropped is Sagan, then Degenkolb. Hard to see Cancellara winning so I'll put him 5th.

It's too bad Phinney and Garrans are missing: they would have added spice to the finish.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:10 pm 
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Posts: 295
Location: Slovakia
Just saw Antonio Parrinello in the breakaway. His surname is not far from the bike brand :)

I hope for Sagan, obviously.


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