"PRO" Cycling Discussion

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ultyguy
Posts: 2262
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:35 pm
Location: Geneva

by ultyguy

Since I have picked 2 outside MSR winners (Ciolek and Goss), I'll chime in :mrgreen:

It's gonna be wet and crap weather which will drain the energy of the race and lead to a lack of cohesion (crashes) which will make the race difficult to control. So knowing that, I think you can strike Cavendish and Greipel straight out.

So let's look at sprinters who have been climbing well lately, I think Degenkolb is probably the best of the lot. He's also won long classics with a sprint at the end (Paris Tours, even after going on the attack before the finale) and he's got the body composition to go well in the wet. Of the headline names, I think he's the best bet vs his odds. Sagan is 4.6-4.8 to 1, decimal odds, pretty fair really, but in a wet one, anything can happen in a split second. Senimentally, I'm actually rooting for him, but I wouldn't bet on him at those odds. He's been good this spring, but not as good as the last one.

Outsiders, Sprinters- Arnaud Demare is my pick. He has made a really nice progression over the past few years and he is fairly handy up the hills as well. He wouldn't be forced to work in a small group like Sagan or Cancellara. My only question is does he have a mental strength to be a real killer and refuse to work like Gerrans did. I'm tempted by Modolo as well, but I doubt he has the grinta to tough it out in the cold and wet. Mathews was actually climbing the best of all the sprinters in Paris-Nice, but then had to abandon with saddle sores which is too bad. I don't know his status for MSR.

Outsiders, Puncheurs- I'm definitely throwing a few quid at Ulissi as he's 30-1 and been fantastic so far this year. Stybar has quietly been goingn very well lately.

edit- no Kwiatkowski or Bentacur

p.s. if you want a real shot from the blue, Ponzi's been riding well too.
Last edited by ultyguy on Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.

by Weenie


HillRPete
Posts: 2292
Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2011 8:08 am
Location: Pedal Square

by HillRPete

Wondering if we'll be seeing something like in the Olympics at MSR. Usually everyone has been waiting for the Poggio, but at the Olympics, it was all about preventing a sprint finish. Maybe we will see something similar, with lots of teams trying to tear up the race? Could be interesting. Of course the teams are bigger at MSR, but the distance and weather could take its toll.

ultyguy
Posts: 2262
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:35 pm
Location: Geneva

by ultyguy

I think this one is quite different from Olympic RR, but yes, I think OPQS needs to send someone up the road to make sure they don't have to spend the whole time working on the front.

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ave
Posts: 1684
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2008 10:15 pm
Location: Hungary

by ave

Cav is even more favourite in his team as Boonen withdraws. Too bad, I think he could have won.
I hope the strong riders won't be that stupid to "play" and allow anybody dropped to get back to the front.

dereksmalls
Posts: 2008
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:20 pm
Location: New Zealand

by dereksmalls

Yeah I think Cav has even ruled himself out this time too, even with the route changes. I'm backing Sagan this year to pick an obvious favourite

munk93
Posts: 408
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:20 pm
Location: Denmark

by munk93

Just to mention someone else, I'm saying Kristoff or Gilbert. Then I can pull the "I told you so" when it's over ;)

lippythelion
Posts: 317
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:56 am
Location: England

by lippythelion

I'll say Degenkolb, Amador or Kreuziger, but Cancellara & Sagan do look in good shape.

jooo
Posts: 1508
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:48 am

by jooo

I think a long shot could be Simon Clarke?

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Kjetil
Posts: 1370
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Hamar, Norway
Contact:

by Kjetil

Weather forecast for MSR is improving dramatically.
Bianchi-Campagnolo

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Getter
Posts: 877
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:30 am
Location: So Cal

by Getter

TJ dude from Garmin...outside chance. :mrgreen:

indigo
Posts: 89
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Geneva, Switzerland

by indigo

Some interesting choices .. I thought Stannard at 80/1 with bad weather seemed value.

Finally I backed Degenkolb with Stybar and Kristoff as outsiders. I'd actually made a lay bet against Cav, which with Boonen out and the weather improving I'm starting to regret! That said I'm still a huge fan so I'll still be happy either way.

mrfish
Posts: 1617
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2007 12:49 pm
Location: Near Horgen, Switzerland

by mrfish

Er ultyguy, do you know where Cavendish comes from? He grew up on an island in the middle of the Irish Sea with few trees because of the wind, heavy roads, zero flat and the sort of weather where you don't leave home without a rain jacket. Normally when he says he's not going well, can't win he's just working on the opposition and has it all planned out.

ultyguy
Posts: 2262
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:35 pm
Location: Geneva

by ultyguy

My bets...

Milan San Remo 2014 / Winner

Arnaud Demare
21.51-1
Zdenek Stybar
43.96-1
John Degenkolb
9.03-1
Diego Ulissi
32-1

KWalker
Posts: 5838
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:30 pm
Location: Bay Area

by KWalker

Alberto Contador
Don't take me too seriously. The only person that doesn't hate Froome.
Gramz
Failed Custom Bike

by Weenie


Antoine
Posts: 451
Joined: Tue May 03, 2011 6:36 pm
Location: France

by Antoine

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/fre ... favourites

Who can beat Sagan in a sprint after 298 km if he makes no mistake like last year ?

Nobody I think if the race has been hard enough.

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