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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:53 am 
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Location: Geneva
Since I have picked 2 outside MSR winners (Ciolek and Goss), I'll chime in :mrgreen:

It's gonna be wet and crap weather which will drain the energy of the race and lead to a lack of cohesion (crashes) which will make the race difficult to control. So knowing that, I think you can strike Cavendish and Greipel straight out.

So let's look at sprinters who have been climbing well lately, I think Degenkolb is probably the best of the lot. He's also won long classics with a sprint at the end (Paris Tours, even after going on the attack before the finale) and he's got the body composition to go well in the wet. Of the headline names, I think he's the best bet vs his odds. Sagan is 4.6-4.8 to 1, decimal odds, pretty fair really, but in a wet one, anything can happen in a split second. Senimentally, I'm actually rooting for him, but I wouldn't bet on him at those odds. He's been good this spring, but not as good as the last one.

Outsiders, Sprinters- Arnaud Demare is my pick. He has made a really nice progression over the past few years and he is fairly handy up the hills as well. He wouldn't be forced to work in a small group like Sagan or Cancellara. My only question is does he have a mental strength to be a real killer and refuse to work like Gerrans did. I'm tempted by Modolo as well, but I doubt he has the grinta to tough it out in the cold and wet. Mathews was actually climbing the best of all the sprinters in Paris-Nice, but then had to abandon with saddle sores which is too bad. I don't know his status for MSR.

Outsiders, Puncheurs- I'm definitely throwing a few quid at Ulissi as he's 30-1 and been fantastic so far this year. Stybar has quietly been goingn very well lately.

edit- no Kwiatkowski or Bentacur

p.s. if you want a real shot from the blue, Ponzi's been riding well too.


Last edited by ultyguy on Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:53 am 


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:40 pm 
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Wondering if we'll be seeing something like in the Olympics at MSR. Usually everyone has been waiting for the Poggio, but at the Olympics, it was all about preventing a sprint finish. Maybe we will see something similar, with lots of teams trying to tear up the race? Could be interesting. Of course the teams are bigger at MSR, but the distance and weather could take its toll.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:19 pm 
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Location: Geneva
I think this one is quite different from Olympic RR, but yes, I think OPQS needs to send someone up the road to make sure they don't have to spend the whole time working on the front.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:45 pm 
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Location: Hungary
Cav is even more favourite in his team as Boonen withdraws. Too bad, I think he could have won.
I hope the strong riders won't be that stupid to "play" and allow anybody dropped to get back to the front.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:07 pm 
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Location: New Zealand
Yeah I think Cav has even ruled himself out this time too, even with the route changes. I'm backing Sagan this year to pick an obvious favourite

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:15 pm 
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Location: Denmark
Just to mention someone else, I'm saying Kristoff or Gilbert. Then I can pull the "I told you so" when it's over ;)


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:56 pm 
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Location: England
I'll say Degenkolb, Amador or Kreuziger, but Cancellara & Sagan do look in good shape.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:16 am 
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I think a long shot could be Simon Clarke?


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:43 am 
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Location: Hamar, Norway
Weather forecast for MSR is improving dramatically.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:07 am 
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Location: So Cal
TJ dude from Garmin...outside chance. :mrgreen:


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:24 am 
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Location: Geneva, Switzerland
Some interesting choices .. I thought Stannard at 80/1 with bad weather seemed value.

Finally I backed Degenkolb with Stybar and Kristoff as outsiders. I'd actually made a lay bet against Cav, which with Boonen out and the weather improving I'm starting to regret! That said I'm still a huge fan so I'll still be happy either way.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:19 pm 
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Location: Near Horgen, Switzerland
Er ultyguy, do you know where Cavendish comes from? He grew up on an island in the middle of the Irish Sea with few trees because of the wind, heavy roads, zero flat and the sort of weather where you don't leave home without a rain jacket. Normally when he says he's not going well, can't win he's just working on the opposition and has it all planned out.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:23 pm 
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Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:35 pm
Posts: 2086
Location: Geneva
My bets...

Milan San Remo 2014 / Winner

Arnaud Demare
21.51-1
Zdenek Stybar
43.96-1
John Degenkolb
9.03-1
Diego Ulissi
32-1


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:07 pm 
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Alberto Contador

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:17 pm 
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Location: France
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/fre ... favourites

Who can beat Sagan in a sprint after 298 km if he makes no mistake like last year ?

Nobody I think if the race has been hard enough.


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Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:17 pm 


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