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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:04 am 
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Quintana, Pinot, and Bardet will hemorrhage several minutes in the TTT and ITT. Porte and Froome will be the favorites again and Dumoulin if he decides to show up (sounds like he doesn't mind waiting another year if maybe the Giro/Vuelta suit him better).

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:26 am 
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Wish they'd dump all TTTs except for Worlds.


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Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:26 am 


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:48 pm 
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bilwit wrote:
Quintana, Pinot, and Bardet will hemorrhage several minutes in the TTT and ITT. Porte and Froome will be the favorites again and Dumoulin if he decides to show up (sounds like he doesn't mind waiting another year if maybe the Giro/Vuelta suit him better).


Finding a recent GT with similar TT distance - Movistar were a big fat zero seconds behind Sky in the 2016 Vuelta TTT, and Froome won the 38k ITT. Quintana won overall.

Froome has won whatever the route. People need start worrying less about what he's doing, and more about how everyone else seems incapable of being enough of an all-rounder to beat him.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Rondje wrote:
Think it's safe to say we won't see Dumoulin fighting Froome this year. With only 30 TT km's he might look elsewhere. It looks like the ASO keeps their faith in Bardet, Pinot and Barguil while they are never going to beat Froome....

Though I don't recall ASO acknowledging they intentionally favour them by reducing kms of TTs, it looks that they do and it's really unfair for guys like T.Martin, Dowset, ...
So we are never going to see Dumoulin at the tour as Gaudu could become quite soon the best french climber and he's 5 years younger than Barguil and 6 than Dumoulin.
Unlike Latour make big progresses, he's the only french who can climb and tt as well.
From inner ring :
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:04 pm 
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MattSoutherden wrote:
bilwit wrote:
Quintana, Pinot, and Bardet will hemorrhage several minutes in the TTT and ITT. Porte and Froome will be the favorites again and Dumoulin if he decides to show up (sounds like he doesn't mind waiting another year if maybe the Giro/Vuelta suit him better).


Finding a recent GT with similar TT distance - Movistar were a big fat zero seconds behind Sky in the 2016 Vuelta TTT, and Froome won the 38k ITT. Quintana won overall.

Froome has won whatever the route. People need start worrying less about what he's doing, and more about how everyone else seems incapable of being enough of an all-rounder to beat him.


..and the number of summit finishes between 2016 Vuelta and 2018 Tour? Froome only lost that Vuelta because he and his team made an outrageous tactical mistake. I think man to man, Porte is the best matchup against Froome (excluding Dumoulin) but doesn't have the support. He has a little bit of an edge on the steeper climbs and can put up a very good TT (barring it's not a technical course in the pouring rain like Stage 1 this year).

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:12 pm 
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UpFromOne wrote:
Wish they'd dump all TTTs except for Worlds.

Actually, they're dumping the World's TTT :wink:


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:32 pm 
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TTT contributes nothing to a GT but giving someone who would otherwise likely never wear the leader's jersey a chance to feel special for a few days.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:47 pm 
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Location: Netherlands
Antoine wrote:
Rondje wrote:
Think it's safe to say we won't see Dumoulin fighting Froome this year. With only 30 TT km's he might look elsewhere. It looks like the ASO keeps their faith in Bardet, Pinot and Barguil while they are never going to beat Froome....

Though I don't recall ASO acknowledging they intentionally favour them by reducing kms of TTs, it looks that they do and it's really unfair for guys like T.Martin, Dowset, ...
So we are never going to see Dumoulin at the tour as Gaudu could become quite soon the best french climber and he's 5 years younger than Barguil and 6 than Dumoulin.
Unlike Latour make big progresses, he's the only french who can climb and tt as well.
From inner ring :
image


Of course the ASO won't say it like that, but I can't think of another reason to lower the TT km's in recent years. They know it's Froome's strong point and it's the weakest point of the French GC riders.
Can't blame them for doing so, I think France is in dire need of a winner, but they won't beat Froome that way. With the current route they have to get lucky that Froome either get caught by surprise on echelons or some kind of chaotic racing in the first week. Because I doubt they can gain enough (if they even can gain) in the mountains to stay ahead of Froome in the TT.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:49 pm 
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They could put in a pump track, a half-pipe, and some gnarly doubles, that might result in Froome crashing-out. On the other hand, Froome seems more likely to prepare for it in a professional manner than the others would.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:13 pm 
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UpFromOne wrote:
Wish they'd dump all TTTs except for Worlds.


Once there was some kind of limit on how much time you can lose in a TTT. I'd limit it to 10seconds/placing at the most. Better eliminate them alltogether. Yeah, sure, nice pictures, but it kills the race.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:28 pm 
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MattSoutherden wrote:
They could put in a pump track, a half-pipe, and some gnarly doubles, that might result in Froome crashing-out. On the other hand, Froome seems more likely to prepare for it in a professional manner than the others would.


My thoughts exactly. I'm not a fan of Froome, but I definitely respect his professionalism. His first year or cobbles learned him he had to adept, so he learned and came well prepared the second time. Something I have yet to see from Bardet, He got support in the team, but he looks more fragile then Froome.
Froome came in to the peloton as one of the least skilled riders but learns new stuff every year.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:24 pm 
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+1

at first Froome seemed like a complete dilettante, a tool even, but he evolves and he's clearly becoming more and more aware of his capabilities and it looks as if he's actually having fun on the bike. he must see by himself how big of an advantage he has over his rivals, not just team-wise, but generally speaking - if he's in an optimal shape, there's no one able to keep up with his pace. and that self awareness makes him more creative but in a really good, productive way. career wise he's also at the spot where he doesn't "have to". to be honest there's nothing more he can achieve other than adding another GTs to his list (I admitt I don't even keep track of how many he's already won, and I bet most fans don't as well).

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:15 am 
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IMHO, for entertainment and "action" purposes, the Tour should go the opposite way: put a few big mountain stages right at the beginning week. Keep the windy and rainy stages, the cobbles, for the third week.
Louis :)


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:50 am 
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{USERNAME} wrote:
to be honest there's nothing more he can achieve other than adding another GTs to his list


I think that winning five Tour de Frances would be huge for him. It puts him on the same podium as Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, and Indurain.

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Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:50 am 


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:41 am 
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LouisN wrote:
IMHO, for entertainment and "action" purposes, the Tour should go the opposite way: put a few big mountain stages right at the beginning week. Keep the windy and rainy stages, the cobbles, for the third week.
Louis :)


Interesting take on the stages. There's really no limit to what ASO could come up with. Just because flat stages have always been in the first week doesn't mean they must.


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